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Climate of the Month January-February 2012. Melanie Davis. Outline. 1) North Atlantic/European region 2) Arctic Ocean 3) Pacific/North American region 4) Tropical Pacific. Outline. 1) North Atlantic/European region 2) Arctic Ocean
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Climate of the Month January-February 2012 Melanie Davis
Outline 1) North Atlantic/European region 2) Arctic Ocean 3) Pacific/North American region 4) Tropical Pacific
Outline 1) North Atlantic/European region 2) Arctic Ocean 3) Pacific/North American region 4) Tropical Pacific
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Positive phase Negative phase Source : http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/
Observed North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index Based on monthly 500hPa height anomaly fields for the three-month period centered on each month during January 1950 - December 2000. +'ve phase Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml
500hPa Geopotential Height Anomaly From NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology NAO +'ve phase = strong subtropical high pressure, strong Icelandic low pressure NAO -'ve phase = weak subtropical high pressure, weak Icelandic low pressure January 2012 February 2012 Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/
Surface Precipitation Rate Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology NAO +'ve phase = wet winter in Europe, wet in USA, dry in N.Canada/Greenland NAO -'ve phase = moist air in Med., drier in N. Europe, snow in E. USA January 2012 February 2012 mm/day mm/day Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/
Surface Precipitation Rate Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology January 2012 February 2012 mm/day mm/day Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/
Surface Air Temperature Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology NAO +'ve phase = warm winter in Europe, mild in USA, cold in N.Canada/Greenland NAO -'ve phase = moist air in Med., cold in N. Europe, cold in E. USA, mild Greenland January 2012 February 2012 °C °C Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/
Surface Air Temperature Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology January 2012 February 2012 °C °C Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/
Outline 1) North Atlantic/European region 2) Arctic Ocean 3) Pacific/North American region 4) Tropical Pacific
500hPa Geopotential Height Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology NAO +'ve phase = strong subtropical high pressure, strong Icelandic low pressure NAO -'ve phase = weak subtropical high pressure, weak Icelandic low pressure January 2012 February 2012 Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/
Surface Air Temperature Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1968-1996 climatology NAO +'ve phase = warm winter in Europe, mild in USA, cold in N.Canada/Greenland NAO -'ve phase = moist air in Med., cold in N. Europe, cold in E. USA, mild Greenland January 2012 February 2012 °C Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/
Arctic Sea Ice Extent (from NSIDC) Dec. 2011 Source : http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives/index.html
Arctic Sea Ice Extent (from NSIDC) Jan. 2012 Source : http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives/index.html
Arctic Sea Ice Extent (from NSIDC) Feb. 2012 Source : http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives/index.html
Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Anomalies (from NSIDC) Dec. 2011 Source : http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives/index.html
Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Anomalies (from NSIDC) Jan. 2012 Source : http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives/index.html
Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Anomalies (from NSIDC) Feb. 2012 Source : http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives/index.html
Outline 1) North Atlantic/European region 2) Arctic Ocean 3) Pacific/North American region 4) Tropical Pacific
Observed Pacific North American (PNA) Index Based on monthly 500hPa height anomaly fields for the three-month period centered on each month during January 1950 - December 2000. +ve phase +ve,-ve phase Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna_index.html
500hPa Geopotential Height Anomaly From NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology PNA +ve phase = above normal pressure W.USA, below normal pressure E.USA PNA -ve phase = below normal pressure W.USA, above normal pressure E.USA January 2012 February 2012 Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/
Surface Air Temperature Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology PNA +ve phase = above av. temp. W.USA/Canada, below av. temp. S.Central/E.USA PNA -ve phase = below av. temp. W.USA, above av. temp. E.USA January 2012 February 2012 °C °C Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/
Surface Precipitation Rate Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology PNA +ve phase = above normal ppt. Gulf Alaska to Pacific NW.USA, below normal ppt. Upper Mid-W. USAPNA -ve phase = opposite ? February 2012 January 2012 mm/day mm/day Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/
Outline 1) North Atlantic/European region 2) Arctic Ocean 3) Pacific/North American region 4) Tropical Pacific
. Source : http://www.prh.noaa.gov/peac/peu/2011_2nd/soi.ph
Source : http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/index3.shtml
Surface Surface Temperature Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology January 2012 February 2012 K K K Source : http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/index.shtml
Surface Precipitation Rate Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology February 2012 January 2012 mm/day mm/day Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/
What do we expect from the ENSO cycle? Source : http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt?open=512&objID=945&mode=2
Summary • NAO: weak, but getting more positive towards Feb 2012 • Warmer Artic Ocean, Artic sea ice depletion • PNA: slightly positive, stronger in Feb 2012 • La Niña prevails and forecasted to continue a few months