Insurance Trends for 2011 by Claude Penland

1. 40 Insurance Trends for 2011 By Claude Penland, Associate of the Casualty Actuarial Society www.InsTrends.com

2. One • 40. Bermuda market may be getting crowded, though Flagstone Re’s Chief Executive Officer said to not count Bermuda out. • 39. Worldwide Takaful (Islamic insurance) market is growing fast. • 38. Microinsurance market has promise in developing countries, though it may take an enormous effort.

3. Two • 37. The values of commercial-backed securities on insurance companies’ balance sheets may need to be marked down. • 36. Consider these ten emerging risks for insurance and reinsurance companies. Reflect on the World Economic Forum’s list, as well as Lloyd’s.

4. Three • 35. Look out for insurance brokers with guns on the high seas. • 34. Actuarial jobs are the #3 career, according to CareerCast. • 33. High-risk health insurance pools are only attracting two percent of expected consumers. • 32. There will be a number of insurance technology challenges, including cloud computing and mobile applications.

5. Four • 31. Obesity costs $300 billion per year, according to the Society of Actuaries. • 30. What is the future of insurance regulation? Actuaries consider that question. • 29. Alternative pharmacy networks are emerging, according to Milliman. • 28. The annual calls for the National Flood Insurance Program to be privatized have begun.

6. Five • 27. Beijing, China automobile traffic is among the worst in the world. Microsoft Research Asia is studying how cabbies get around for better ideas about efficient driving. • 26. MileMeter’s pay-as-you-drive metered car insurance is growing in popularity.

7. Six • 25. Health record proposal to support personalized, predictive, preventative and participatory medicine. • 24. Insurance mergers and acquisitions are expected to increase globally in 2011. • 23. Office of Personnel Management plans to build a healthcare claims database. • 22. Disgrace insurance for sponsors is now available to protect their reputations.

8. Seven • 21. States are borrowing from the US federal government to pay unemployment insurance. • 20. Property and casualty insurance companies increase their use of predictive analytics. • 19. Some insurance runoff specialists are growing up fast. • 18. Rainfall contracts launched by the CME Group.

9. Eight • 17. There are not enough qualified insurance regulators in the United Kingdom. Solvency II is contributing to that employee shortage. • 16. United States insurance companies lose 6,000 jobs. • 15. The combination of international financial reporting standards (IFRS) and Solvency II will place strain on insurance companies’ balance sheets.

10. Nine • 14. Institute of Actuaries of India has plans to expand throughout Asia. • 13. US companies’ health plan “grandfathering” with regards to health “reform” is still in flux. • 12. Medicaid costs anticipated to increase a lot in several US states. • 11. New Hampshire is pushing for more locally-domiciled insurers.

11. Ten • 10. CEO’s, CFO’s, Chairmen, Presidents, CIO’s, General Counsels and COO’s are very well paid among the largest ten property and casualty, health and life insurers: a compensation comparison. • 9. The Asian reinsurance market could consolidate. • 8. Virtual insurance, such as crop insurance in FarmVille, might be on the rise.

12. Eleven • 7. Insurance claims adjusters and lawyers are using social networks for investigations. • 6. Sinkholes in Florida are becoming an insurance problem. • 5. Medical malpractice costs increasing. • 4. Automobile insurance claims costs in the United Kingdom are rapidly rising.

13. Twelve • 3. Saudi Arabian health insurance premiums increasing 30% per year. • 2. Mortality improvements may slow within a few decades. • 1. The Canadian insurance-linked securities market should grow.