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Random Thoughts on Uncertainty for Ecological Modeling By Jay M. Ver Hoef National Marine Mammal Lab 7600 Sand Point Way, NE Seattle, WA 98115 jay.verhoef@noaa.gov Model Averaging Change of Support Model Selection Which one would AIC choose? How Do We Use Probability?

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## Random Thoughts on Uncertainty for Ecological Modeling

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**Random Thoughts on Uncertainty for Ecological Modeling**By Jay M. Ver Hoef National Marine Mammal Lab 7600 Sand Point Way, NE Seattle, WA 98115 jay.verhoef@noaa.gov**Model Selection**Which one would AIC choose?**Are Models Correct?**y x “All models are wrong. We make tentative assumptions about the real world which we know are false but which we believe may be useful.”- George Box 1976**Conclusions**• Do not quench your inspiration and your imagination; do not become the slave of your model. Vincent van Gogh • A good model can advance fashion by ten years. Yves Saint Laurent • When I model I pretty much go blank. You can't think too much or it doesn't work. • Paulina Porizkova • A theory has only the alternative of being right or wrong. A model has a third possibility: it may be right, but irrelevant. • Manfred Eigen

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