1 / 7

Random Thoughts on Uncertainty for Ecological Modeling

Random Thoughts on Uncertainty for Ecological Modeling By Jay M. Ver Hoef National Marine Mammal Lab 7600 Sand Point Way, NE Seattle, WA 98115 jay.verhoef@noaa.gov Model Averaging Change of Support Model Selection Which one would AIC choose? How Do We Use Probability?

Albert_Lan
Télécharger la présentation

Random Thoughts on Uncertainty for Ecological Modeling

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Random Thoughts on Uncertainty for Ecological Modeling By Jay M. Ver Hoef National Marine Mammal Lab 7600 Sand Point Way, NE Seattle, WA 98115 jay.verhoef@noaa.gov

  2. Model Averaging

  3. Change of Support

  4. Model Selection Which one would AIC choose?

  5. How Do We Use Probability?

  6. Are Models Correct? y x “All models are wrong. We make tentative assumptions about the real world which we know are false but which we believe may be useful.”- George Box 1976

  7. Conclusions • Do not quench your inspiration and your imagination; do not become the slave of your model. Vincent van Gogh • A good model can advance fashion by ten years. Yves Saint Laurent • When I model I pretty much go blank. You can't think too much or it doesn't work. • Paulina Porizkova • A theory has only the alternative of being right or wrong. A model has a third possibility: it may be right, but irrelevant. • Manfred Eigen

More Related