Are you here today? • yes • no 20
Chapter 4: A First Look at Macroeconomics • Origins and issues of macroeconomics • Economic growth • Unemployment & inflation • Government budget surpluses/deficits • International trade surpluses and deficits • Macroeconomic policy challenges and tools
Origins and Issues of Macroeconomics • Economists began to study economic growth, inflation, and international payments during the 1750s. • Modern macro dates from the Great Depression, a decade (1929-1939) of high unemployment and stagnant production throughout the world economy. • John Maynard Keynes’ book, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, began the subject.
Origins and Issues of Macroeconomics • Short-Term Versus Long-Term Goals Keynes focused on the short-term on unemployment and lost production. “In the long run, we’re all dead.” During the 1970s and 1980s, macroeconomists became more concerned about long-term—inflation and economic growth.
Economic Growth and Fluctuations Economic growth • expansion of the economy’s production possibilities • outward shifting Production possibilities frontier (PPF). • results from more resources (land, labor, capital) or improved technology Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) • total market value of all the goods and services produced by domestically located factors of producing during a year, measured using a fixed prices. • inflation alone does not cause an increase in real GDP Economic Growth is measured by growth in Real GDP
Economic Growth and Fluctuations • Potential GDP is GDP if economy operates at “full employment” • Real GDP<Potential GDP below full employment • A recession occurs when real GDP declines.
Economic Growth and Fluctuations Business cycles: • Fluctuations of real GDP around potential • 2 stages 1. A recession: real GDP declining 2. An expansion: real GDP rising • 2 turning points 1. Peak 2. Trough Business cycle dates officially determined by NBER http://www.nber.org/cycles.html
Economic Growth and Fluctuations How costly are the growth slowdown and the lost output over the business cycle? To answer that question we measure: • The Lucas wedge • The Okun gap
The Cost of a Productivity Slowdown • The Lucas Wedge accumulated loss of output from the productivity growth slowdown of the 1970s Productivity=RGDP/labor hours (4.3 percent from 1960s versus actual growth realized). $72 trillion or 6.5 times the real GDP in 2005.
The Cost of a Recessions • The Okun Gap Real GDP minus potential GDP is the output gap (Okun gap) Okun gap from recessions since 1973 is $3.3 trillion or about 30 percent of real GDP in 2005. Pain of an Okun gap not equally distributed across society.
A larger Okun gap would be caused by ___ . A larger Lucas wedge would be caused by ______: • A longer recession; slower productivity growth • A shorter recession; slower productivity growth • Slower productivity growth; longer recession • None of the above. 20
Determinants of Economic Growth • Rate of growth in resources (land, labor, capital) • Tax policy • Social Insurance programs • Immigration • Environmental regulations • Government spending • Technological change • Education policy
Which tax would be likely to lead to greater economic growth? • A tax rebate to households. • A tax credit to business subsidizing the purchase of new capital. 20
Stricter environmental regulations would likely lead to _____ economic growth. • increased • decreased 20
More generous unemployment insurance benefits would likely lead to ____ economic growth • increased • decreased 20
More immigration would lead to ____ economic growth • faster • slower 20
Jobs and Unemployment • Jobs In 2008, 145.3 million people in the United States had jobs. This number is 18 million more than in 1996 and 35 million more than in 1986. But the pace of job creation fluctuates. During a recession, the number of jobs shrinks. 19901991 recession: >1 million jobs lost 2001 recession, 2 million jobs lost 2008 recession: 2 million jobs lost in 4th quarter, how many more?? .
Jobs and Unemployment • Unemployment On an average day in a normal year, 7 million people in the U.S. are unemployed (not employed, but searching for a job). Labor force statistics: Civilian Labor force = employed + unemployed (excludes military) Unemployment rate = unemployed/Civilian labor force
Jobs and Unemployment The unemployment rate is not a perfect measure of the underutilization of labor. For two reasons: The unemployment rate • Excludes discouraged workers. • Workers who are discouraged about job prospects and quit searching. 2. Excludes “under-employment” –part-time workers who want full-time jobs.
Jobs and Unemployment During the 1930s, the unemployment rate hit 25 percent.
Inflation We measure the price level as the average of the prices that people pay for all the goods and services that they buy. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a common measure of the price level. Inflation rate:percentage change in the price level. Inflation occurs when the price level is rising persistently. Deflation occurs when inflation is negative and prices are falling.
Inflation • Hyperinflation The most serious type of inflation is hyperinflation -- an inflation rate that exceeds 50 percent a month. Why Inflation is a Problem Inflation is a problem for many reasons, but the main one is that once it takes hold, it is unpredictable. Unpredictable inflation is a problem because it • Redistributes income and wealth • Borrowers and lenders • Taxes • Diverts resources from production toward forecasting inflation & contracts to deal with inflation
If inflation is higher than borrowers and lenders expected, borrowers will ____ and lenders will _____. • Win; lose • Win; win • Lose; win • Lose; lose 20
Value of the dollar • The Value of the Dollar in terms of other currencies is called the exchange rate —a measure of how much your dollar will buy in other parts of the world. An example is the number of pesos that 1 U.S. dollar will buy (pesos/dollar)
Value of the dollar Depreciation • value of the dollar decreases relative to other currencies. Appreciation • Value of the dollar increasesincreases relative to other currencies.
A weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar against a subset of the broad index currencies that circulate widely outside the country of issue. Major currencies index includes the Euro Area, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Australia, and Sweden.
Value of the Dollar • Why the Exchange Rate Matters When the U.S. dollar appreciates, • U.S. consumers pay less for imported goods • more imports and less demand for domestic goods. • Foreign consumers pay more for U.S. exports • fewer exports and less demand for domestic goods. When the U.S. dollar depreciates, the opposite occurs.
When the dollar appreciates relative to other currencies, the cost of U.S. exports to other countries ______ and the cost of U.S. imports from other countries _____. • Rises; rises. • Rises; falls. • Falls; falls. • Falls; rises. 20
Government Surpluses, Deficits, and Debts • Government Budget Balance If a government collects more in taxes than it spends, it has a government budget surplus. If a government spends more than it collects in taxes, it has a government budget deficit. • Deficits Bring Debts A debt is the amount that is owed. When a government or a nation has a deficit, its debt grows. A government’s or a nation’s debt equals the sum of all past deficits minus past surpluses. A government’s debt is called national debt.
If the U.S. debt grows from 2008 to 2009, the government must have experienced a budget deficit. • True • False 20
Surpluses, Deficits, and Debts The budget deficit as a percentage of GDP increases in recessions and shrinks in expansions
Surpluses, Deficits, and Debts During the 1980s expansion, a large deficit appeared but it almost disappeared during the 1990–1991 recession. The current account deficit in 2005 was 6.3 percent of GDP.
International Surpluses, Deficits, and Debts • International Surplus and Deficit Trade surplus: imports > exports Trade deficit: exports> imports The balance on the current account equals U.S. exports minus U.S. imports but adds interest received and substracts interest paid to rest of the world. Current account surplus: net lender to rest of world Curernt account deficit: net borrower from rest of world
International Surpluses, Deficits, and Debts Until 1986, the United States was a net lender to the world. But with increased deficits, the United States is now a net borrower from the world.
U.S. borrowing from the rest of the world rises as imports ____ or exports _____. • Rise; rise • Rise; fall • Fall; fall • Fall; rise 20
Macroeconomic Policy Challenges and Tools Two broad groups of macroeconomic policy tools are Fiscal policy changes in tax rates and government spending Conducted by government Monetary policy changing interest rates and the amount of money in the economy Conducted by Federal Reserve