Central Pacific Hurricane CenterProducts and Services Raymond Tanabe Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service Honolulu HI
Central Pacific Hurricane CenterText Products • Tropical Weather Outlook • Tropical Cyclone Disturbance Statements • Tropical Cyclone Discussion • Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory • Tropical Cyclone Updates • Tropical Cyclone Local Statements • Tropical Cyclone Position Estimates
Pre-Tropical Cyclone Products • Tropical cyclones typically start as an area of strong and organized thunderstorms • The Tropical Weather Outlook provides a summary of possible or anticipated tropical cyclone development and other areas of interest
Central Pacific Hurricane CenterTropical Weather Outlook • Issued 4 times daily during hurricane season – June 1 through November 30 • 4 AM, 10 AM, 4 PM, 10 PM HST • Provides a summary of possible or anticipated tropical cyclone development and other areas of interest • Can give you several days “heads up” before a tropical cyclone actually develops
Central Pacific Hurricane CenterTropical Weather Outlook TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 400 AM HST TUE JUN 8 2004 FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. $$ POWELL
Central Pacific Hurricane CenterTropical Weather Outlook TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1000 AM HST FRI MAY 11 2007 FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180 A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
Central Pacific Hurricane CenterDisturbance Statements • Issued as needed to furnish information on strong and formative non-depression systems • Describes areas of strong and organized thunderstorms that have good potential for development into a tropical cyclone • Rarely used
Central Pacific Hurricane CenterDisturbance Statements TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 0000Z SAT JUL 01 2000 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A SHIP REPORT AT 1 PM HST INDICATE A SUSPECT AREA OF CONVECTION IN AN AREA WITHIN A 100 MILE RADIUS OF 10N 160W. AVAILABLE DATA DO NOT JUSTIFY ISSUING TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS AND HEAVY SEAS WERE REPORTED. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH NEAR 10 KT. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THIS DISTURBED AREA AND ISSUE TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORIES IF NECESSARY. THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AT 8 PM HST.
Tropical Cyclone Products • Once a tropical cyclone develops or moves into the Central North Pacific, Tropical Discussions, Public Advisories, and Forecast/Advisories are issued at regularly scheduled times • 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, 11 PM • For “fish storms” that are expected to remain over water and not affect any land areas, these three are the only products issued • For tropical cyclone that are expected to impact land areas, position estimates, intermediate advisories, and local statements are also issued.
Central Pacific Hurricane CenterTropical Cyclone Discussion • Explain the forecaster’s reasoning behind the analysis and forecast of the tropical cyclone • Assess confidence or uncertainty • Reason for change in track or intensity forecast • Plans for watches and warnings
Central Pacific Hurricane CenterTropical Cyclone Discussion OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...TWO-C HAS STARTED TO SHOW SIGNS OF BETTER ORGANIZATION . WIND RADII WERE ALSO EXPANDED PRIMARILY THROUGH 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND QUIKSCAT DATA. THE FORECAST TRACK OF TWO-C HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD OR TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK... THE FORECAST INTENSITY WAS INCREASED THROUGH 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN INITIAL INTENSITY. ITS PROJECTED PATH KEEPS TWO-C OVER WATER AND AWAY FROM ANY MAJOR PACIFIC ISLANDS. THE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 36 HOURS ALSO PLACES TWO-C FURTHER AWAY FROM JOHNSTON ISLAND.
Central Pacific Hurricane CenterForecast /Advisory • Short Term Section (days 1-3) • Current position and movement • Forecast center positions • Maximum wind speed and gusts in knots • 34, 50, and 64 knot wind speed radii • Extended Outlook Section (days 4-5) • Forecast center positions • Maximum wind speed in knots
Central Pacific Hurricane CenterForecast / Advisory HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 160.9W AT 09/2100Z. POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM. PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 22 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB. EYE DIAMETER 10 NM. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW 50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW 34 KT........200NE 200SE 200SW 200NW 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 200SW 200NW ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
Central Pacific Hurricane CenterPublic Advisory • Watches or warnings in effect • Highlights most significant conditions • Reference to local statements from Civil Defense and NWS • Location, movement, and intensity of tropical cyclone • Intermediate Advisories • Issued at 2 or 3 hour intervals when a tropical cyclone affects or is forecast to affect an island • Special advisories • Issued anytime significant changes occur • Cancellation of a Hurricane/Tropical storm Watch or Warning • Classification of tropical cyclone changes • A tornado threat develops
Central Pacific Hurricane CenterPublic Advisory AT 5 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.3 WEST OR ABOUT 875 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
Central Pacific Hurricane CenterPosition Estimates • Augments other advisories with the latest position of tropical cyclone • May be issued when hurricane/tropical storm threatens land and is within 200 miles of land based radar • Satellite positions may also be used
Central Pacific Hurricane CenterPosition Estimate AT 1000 AM HST...THE POSSIBLE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WAS ESTIMATED USING THE SOUTH HAWAII RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 156.8 WEST. THIS IS APPROXIMATELY 225 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HILO...AND 155 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THIS POSITION ESTIMATE IS CONSIDERED TO BE POOR DUE TO DISTANCE FROM THE SOUTH HAWAII RADAR. THIS WILL BE THE LAST RADAR POSITION ESTIMATE ISSUED FOR TROPICAL STORM JIMENA AS IT IS MOVING OUT OF RADAR RANGE.
Central Pacific Hurricane CenterLocal Statements • Specific details for county area • Watches and/or warnings in effect • Hurricane/Tropical Storm location, movement, and intensity • Significant details – wind, surf, rain and flood potential, tornado potential • Civil Defense evacuation orders • Precautions necessary to protect life and property • Frequent releases – every 2 or 3 hours, more often if necessary
Central Pacific Hurricane CenterLocal Statements HURRICANE JIMENA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 1200 AM HST MON SEP 01 2003 ...AREAS AFFECTED... ...WATCHES WARNINGS... ....STORM INFORMATION... ...PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS... ...HIGH SURF AND TIDE IMPACTS... ...WIND IMPACTS... ...FLOODING IMPACTS... ...NEXT UPDATE...
Central Pacific Hurricane Center Watches and Warnings Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watch • Hurricane/Tropical Storm conditions are possible within 36 hours. Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warning • Hurricane/Tropical Storm conditions are expected within 24 hours
Tropical Cyclone Enters Central Pacific from the East 15N 140W WNW 15 MPH 1050 miles from Hilo 1250 miles from Honolulu 70 hours away Discussion Forecast / Advisory Public Advisory Graphics
17N 145W WNW 15 MPH 690 miles from Hilo 890 miles from Honolulu 45 hours away Discussion Forecast / Advisory Public Advisory Graphics
Hurricane Watch issued for Hawaii County Tropical Storm Watch issued for Maui County 17.5N 147W WNW 15 MPH 540 miles from Hilo 740 miles from Honolulu 36 hours away Discussion Forecast / Advisory Public Advisory Graphics Local Statements
Hurricane Warning issued for Hawaii County Tropical Storm Warning issued for Maui County 18.5N 145W WNW 12 MPH 350 miles from Hilo 550 miles from Honolulu 24 hours or less Discussion Forecast / Advisory Public Advisory Graphics Local Statements
Hurricane conditions across Hawaii County Tropical Storm conditions across Maui County Discussion Forecast / Advisory Public Advisory Graphics Position Estimates Local Statements
Hurricane Warning canceled for Hawaii County Tropical Storm Warning canceled for Maui County Discussion Forecast / Advisory Public Advisory Graphics Hurricane Local Statement