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Partisan Realignments in the US (Schofield et al.)

Partisan Realignments in the US (Schofield et al.). Two questions:. Is politics one-dimensional ? (i.e., is a Liberal-Conservative dimension sufficient?) Do you think that there is a good account of how electoral realignments in American politics actually occur?.

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Partisan Realignments in the US (Schofield et al.)

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  1. Partisan Realignments in the US (Schofield et al.)

  2. Two questions: • Is politics one-dimensional? (i.e., is a Liberal-Conservative dimension sufficient?) • Do you think that there is a good account of how electoral realignments in American politics actually occur?

  3. Partisan Realignments in the US • Party realignments have long fascinated scholars of American politics • However, no simple model has captured how these phenomena actually occur • Until now…

  4. Political Map of the US in 1896McKinley (Republican)vs.Bryan (Democrat)

  5. Political Map of the US in 2004George Bush (Republican)vs.John Kerry (Democrat)

  6. 1896 vs. 2004 • Red states turn blue, and vice versa • How did this happen? • Why did this happen? • Schofield et al.: politics is two-dimensional!

  7. American politics is two-dimensional • Economic dimension • Social dimension

  8. 1896 vs. 2004 • Why was the 2004 election the mirror image of the 1896 election? • Significant constituencies must have deserted each party, switching their allegiances

  9. Most likely candidates? • Populists (D → R) • Cosmopolitans (R → D) • Look at survey data see if it supports this

  10. Evidence? • Populists: working-class, socially conservative voters • Cosmopolitans: middle-class, socially liberal voters

  11. “Operationalization” • Populists: individuals in the 16th percentile or below on annual income who oppose abortion regardless of circumstances • Cosmopolitans: individuals in the 68th percentile or above on annual income who support abortion

  12. Democratic vote, 1970s-2000s

  13. Conclusion? • Data shows that in recent years populists moved away from the Democratic Party toward the Republican Party • Also shows a movement of cosmopolitans in the opposite direction (R → D)

  14. Additional resources: • Note: if you are interested in finding more about this topic, see Norman Schofield’s papers athttp://schofield.wustl.edu/schofieldpapers.html • Especially  ACTIVISTS AND PARTISAN REALIGNMENT IN THE UNITED STATESAmerican Political Science Review, 97(2) May 2003, and CRITICAL ELECTIONS AND POLITICAL REALIGNMENTS IN THE USA: 1860-2000Political Studies, Vol 51, 217-240 2003

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