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New Indicators for the MEI

New Indicators for the MEI

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New Indicators for the MEI

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  1. New Indicators for the MEI Nadim Ahmad OECD Statistics Directorate Short-Term Economic Statistics Working Party Paris, 23-24 June 2008

  2. 4 Target Areas • Entrepreneurship • House Price Indices • Labour Productivity • Accession Process • Index of Services?

  3. Entrepreneurship • Work on Short term Indicators of Business dynamics • Scoping study using EU data for 2000-2006 demonstrated feasibility of using LFS data to create: • (a) monthly/quarterly estimates of self-employment and/or business ownership rates • (b) quarterly estimates of self-employment ‘start-up’ rates • (c) self-employment ‘survival’ rates

  4. Examples – UK: ‘start-ups’

  5. ‘Survival rates’Probability of Remaining in Self-Employment by Quarter – UK, 2000-2006

  6. Entrepreneurship • But also the need to resolve a number of issues: • Small sample sizes create, for some countries, volatile start-up rates • A more serious problem for ‘survival rates’ as responses to “in self-emp for 0-3 months’ ; “4-6 months”; “7-9 months” etc get incrementally smaller • Data is NSA. So, need to establish: (a) SA techniques (b) trend estimates of start-ups and (c) averaging over-time for survival rates (so, not really a ST indicator)

  7. House Price Indices • Initial OECD country scoping study to create inventory of HPIs across OECD countries as input into Handbook on HPIs (now being led by Eurostat).

  8. HPIs Monthly/Quarterly data available for most OECD countries

  9. House Price Indices • But a number of issues require resolution • Best Practice/Concepts/Definitions (to form part of the Handbook)...to help determine.... • the most appropriate national source (some countries have multiple sources) • Cross-country methodological differences – representativeness, weights, quality etc

  10. Monthly Labour productivity • Building on development of ULC database, intention is to use similar sources of info to derive Q labour productivity estimates. • Likely to face similar obstacles, especially volatility, and will need to investigate whether trending and benchmarking techniques will also resolve/ameliorate these obstacles.

  11. OECD Accession Country Process • CHILE • ESTONIA, • ISRAEL, • RUSSIA, • SLOVENIA

  12. Index of Services • Building on earlier 2007 study and ‘Compilation Manual for IOS Production’, investigate scope and comparability of IOS data (and sectoral components) for OECD countries. • Earlier study revealed scope in AUS, CAN, JPN,KOR, MEX, NZL and US and EU (via Regulation). • But further investigations needed: e.g. deflators, sectoral coverage, correlation with SBS.