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World Cruise Tourism Market and the Baltic Vision

World Cruise Tourism Market and the Baltic Vision. By Peter Wild and John Dearing G. P. Wild (International) Limited. Background. Cruise tourism is the fastest growing part on tourism in the world Cruise tourism has grown consistently since at least 1980

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World Cruise Tourism Market and the Baltic Vision

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  1. World Cruise Tourism Market and the Baltic Vision By Peter Wild and John Dearing G. P. Wild (International) Limited www.gpwild.com

  2. Background • Cruise tourism is the fastest growing part on tourism in the world • Cruise tourism has grown consistently since at least 1980 • The industry has shown great resilience in the face of difficulties • It made a rapid recovery from 9/11 and has enjoyed a boom since early 2004 • The fundamentals of the industry are strong www.gpwild.com

  3. Introduction • The growth of the cruise industry has meant many changes in cruise port operations and the infrastructure needs of destinations • Key drivers of this change include: • Increasing introduction of larger cruise ships • The requirement to handle higher concentrations of cruise tourists over a short time scale – a challenge for local resources, traffic management and supporting infrastructure • Need to develop new itineraries and destinations to handle market changes www.gpwild.com

  4. The Next generation and Larger Cruise Ships www.gpwild.com

  5. Current Ordering Position www.gpwild.com

  6. Annualised Ordering Position www.gpwild.com

  7. Trends in Newbuildings to 2012 www.gpwild.com

  8. An Analysis of Current Order Book www.gpwild.com

  9. Structure of current order book www.gpwild.com

  10. Annualised Levels of Investment www.gpwild.com

  11. Impact of Vessel Size on Itineraries and Ports www.gpwild.com

  12. The Rise of the Mega Ship www.gpwild.com

  13. Deployment of Mega Cruise Fleet www.gpwild.com

  14. Comment • Some smaller cruise ships will continue to be built • The size of the average cruise ship will continue to increase in next decade • Mega cruise ships will gradually replace lower capacity tonnage built prior to 1990 • Debatable whether cruise ships will get larger still and go beyond the Genesis Class • Changing fleet structure has many implications for ports and itineraries www.gpwild.com

  15. Comment cont… • A survey by G. P. Wild (International) Ltd has established that an ever increasing number of pax will cruise on large ships by 2014 • Over 50% will sail on ships >290m loa • Almost 30% will use ships >300m loa • 20 of the 42 cruise ships on order exceed 300m in length www.gpwild.com

  16. Further comments • Ports that are unable to accommodate the largest ships face the prospect of an ever decreasing market share • For example a port which just 17 years ago was able to handle the largest ships under construction at that time (around 250m) faces a reduction of 54% in market share by 2014 www.gpwild.com

  17. Fleet structure in 2011 by length www.gpwild.com

  18. More comments • Almost 78% of cruise tourists will sail in vessels exceeding 250m in length by 2011 • Over 57% of the fleets capacity will be accounted for by ships in excess of 275m • 21% of the fleets capacity will be offered on vessels over 300m in length www.gpwild.com

  19. Critical Scantlings • Length – up to 360m • Beam – in excess of 55m • Draft – maximum 10.3m • Air draft – in excess of 65m www.gpwild.com

  20. Implications for Ports • To maintain or increase market share ports not able to meet future market requirements will have to invest in new facilities and infrastructure • Two berths of 350m plus are almost certainly going to be required if a port wishes to remain competitive and attractive to the cruise lines by 2014 www.gpwild.com

  21. Implications cont… • Berths to accommodate 360m cruise ship may only be required to provide around 250m for flat of sides with dolphins or other similar arrangements being used to provide safe berthing overall • Suitable infrastructure needs to be provided to accommodate traffic flows to and from the ship including coach marshalling • Car parking will be needed for turnarounds • Customs, immigration and security issues all need to be addressed www.gpwild.com

  22. Possible Traffic Flow Needs www.gpwild.com

  23. Funding Investment • This can be complex and take various forms depending upon the particular position of a port and destination • Port authorities, towns and cities, governments at various levels and banks and financiers can all play a role • Also increasingly the cruise lines themselves are participating in port related investments – perhaps also agreeing to make a certain number of calls over a period of time www.gpwild.com

  24. Examples – Cruise Line/ Port www.gpwild.com

  25. Thank You www.gpwild.com www.gpwild.com

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