Advanced Concepts GroupWar onTerrorism Activitieshttp://www.sandia.gov/capabilitites/acg/index.html Presentation to DHS TV/TA Committee Nancy K. Hayden April 23, 2004 SAND2004-2130W Unclassified Unlimited Release Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company,for the United States Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.
Samuel Huntington The Clash of Civilizations Terrorism: It’s About People • Poor economic conditions and low human Capital Development in Arab world will continue • Cultural Histories, ethnic tensions, hate, superstition, conspiracy…will continue to expound victimization narratives • Role of US/Israel as crusaders against backdrop of changing balance of powers (EU, Asia,..) • Fundamental religious movements will continue to foster rebellion against modernism
Reality Terrorism is a Complex Problem The key is to better understand the future—plan to change it, and change it Knowledge Network scenario driven hypothesis Logistics/ Infrastructure Multidimensional Games Red, Blue, Green White, Purple MOADB Social/ psychological Simulation indications & warnings enhanced collection smart decision making individuals and groups increase hope warn first responders manipulate - deceive - control - dissuade - deter - destroy mitigate
Complexity Science Yields New Analysis Paradigms Santa Fe Institute Workshop April 10-11, 2003 How Complex Adaptive Systems Dynamics are Related to Understanding and Modeling Terrorist Behavior Sandia, Argonne, LANL, CIA, DTRA, MITRE, Navy Cornell, U of Penn, Intel, CMU, Icosystems, USAF, Galisteo, Humana, Alidade, U of Maryland, MIIS, Brookings Intrinsic network features transcend domains
Systems Thinking: Frame the Problem System Complexity Modeling approaches depend on what problem is being addressed Explore Interpret Suggest Infer Describe Predict Timeframe Analysis Function
The Advanced Concepts Group • Dotology • The application of red gaming and computer reasoning tools to the generation of terrorism hypotheses • Knownet • The creation of a virtual community of terrorism experts to share and create knowledge • Seldon • The development of computational sociopsychological models to better understand the complex behaviors of terrorist organizations. • Mentor/Pal • The study of novel human-machine systems using physiological monitors to enable superior group performance • SDAC • Sense/decide/act/communicate devices that create inexpensive, self organizing systems for detection and reaction
Accomplishments and Current Work The Science of Connecting the Dots • IWFO project with KDD (part of ITIC) • Red Game held in July 2003 • LDRD to develop data structures for data warehouse • White paper on Red Teaming for Homeland Security • White paper on a National Counter Terrorism Univ. Problem and Approach The Future of This Concept Improve our nation’s ability to "connect the dots" to allow interdiction prior to an terrorist event. Creation of a national “red gaming” capability to generate and collect hypothetical scenarios and the creation of a data warehouse that would store these scenarios and fragments, in a computer manipulatible format at the level of “observable” events. Design of a tool, the “Hypothesizer”, calling on the data warehouse to expand the view of analysts for what might be unfolding and to eliminate spurious “dots” inconsistent with reasonable scenarios. • Partners: • KDD program within ITIC • LDRD team in 5500 and 5900 • This year: • Hold another game or two in ’04 • LDRD to build prototype Hypothesizer • Transition concept to intel community with support from 5500 and 5900. • Dotology team: Rick Craft, Judy Moore, John Whitley
The need to “know” the terrorist has emerged repeatedly in the concepts that the ACG has explored Targets & Harden Critical Resources Resources Enable Dynamic Mitigation Control Dangerous Things Public & Private Know Ourselves, the Threat, & the Current Situation Strengthen Emergency Response Control Bad Actors Responders Support Apprehension & Prosecution Terr o rists A Recurrent Need
Accomplishments • SFI workshop explored terrorism as complex system behavior with experts • KnowNet white paper explains ACG concept • KnowFest started building a functioning community of very diverse experts (Mini-Net) • KnowNet Pilot • Current Work • Nurture Mini-Net collaborations • Community white paper on Know Net Problem The nation needs to develop deep and comprehensive knowledge of terrorism and make this knowledge accessible where it is needed, when it is needed, and in the form needed. Approach Create a (inter-)national network that provides insight on short and long-term terrorist-related issues using experts who are fed with high-grade source information and supported by an infrastructure that enables communication, analysis, and collaboration. The Future • Pursue DHS Interest in S&T (Gary Strong) • Collaborate with DTRA/DHS to develop KnowNet implementation options • LDRD for Rapid Knowledge Generation to support other SNL/DHS terrorism work • Transition KnowNet program to SNL line organizations • Team Members : Nancy Hayden , Rick Craft • External Partners: St. Andrews, GWU, MIIS, MITRE, Tel Aviv University, U of Penn, U of Michigan, IDSS, RAND
Knownet Toolbox • Provide COTS/USG information visualization and analysis tools • VxInsight: landscape views • Starlight suite : network and context analyses • ClearForest: concept and link analyses • Attensity : syntactic and semantic freeform text analysis, discivers entities and relationships • Incorporate Rapid Knowledge Generation middleware • Access to scenarios and behavior simulation models
Network models 3d models Scenarios Visualizations VxInsight
SELDON - Computational Simulation of Social Tipping Points Accomplishments and Current Work • Prototype agent-based model of recruitment within multiple social networks. • Preliminary results confirm strong role of social networks • Gang-terrorist analogy paper Problem and Approach The Future of This Concept Problem: improve our understanding of the factors and processes that lead to the emergence and persistence of terrorists Research question: how do we intervene in the recruitment pipeline so groups do not achieve size and structure necessary to support violent behavior? Approach: develop a computational psycho-social model that allows us to play ‘what if’ games with interventions in the recruitment pipeline to identify those which will preclude the development of a group structure that will lead to violence • Partners: Nina Berry (8964), Teresa Ko (8964), Ann Speed (12335), and Professor Kathleen Carley (Carnegie Melon University) • Team: Tim Moy, Julienne Smrcka, Jessica Turnley, and Ben Wu (POC) • Future Path: • Model middle east terrorists • Develop transition plan to line organization.
Relevant Information Today’s Response Curve System Overload Desired Response Curve Response Threshold Time Event Delayed Detection Threat Awareness and Response
Mentor/Pal Team Accomplishments and Current Work • Prototype system for novel group observations • Live Demo • Technology Roadmap to 2015 • System Architecture • Quickplace collaborative website • Lockheed Martin Skunk Works symposium • Human Studies Board approval • NASA Human Performance 2003 talk (Oct.) Accelerometry, GSR, Pulse oximetry EMG, EKG, Respiration, Voice Face video, keystroke, Mouse x, y, click Voice recognition, EEG Problem and Approach The Future of This Concept Need: Improve the performance of people in situations with • High cognitive loads and high consequence decisions • High stress and time-critical operations • Unpredictable, ambiguous, non-recurring environments • Challenges for realistic training • Multiple people and machines Examples: security operations centers, long-duration duty crews, team training simulators, crisis operations teams Approach: Observe humans in collaborations under stress What are signatures of high-performing collaborations? Goal: novel systems coach teams to high performance • Prof. Akaysha Tang, UNM: State of the art EEG and MEG laboratory, FY04 collaboration planned • Dave Warner, MD, Ph.D.,MindTel LLC: Mobile Op Center wireless application FY04 (potential) • Cal Tech student fellowships: Center for Neuromorphic Engineering (potential) • Dialogue with SNL line organizations • Interest from potential IC and DoD sponsors. • Project Manager: Merkle • ACG Team: Johnson, Jones, Craft • LDRD PI: Adele Doser (15311)
SenseDecideActCommunicate Project Team Accomplishments and Current Work • Raised awareness within Sandia re/ networked SDAC concepts; Influenced FY03-04 LDRDs • Helped launch (and contributing to) Talon LDRD Project, internal SDAC-related strategic vision and road-mapping, and Talon Initiative • Sponsoring SDAC LDRD Architectural Tradeoff Study and Demo System Development Project • Facilitating high-level national workshop Oct’03 Problem and Approach The Future of This Concept • Partners: Key Sandia Staff and Line Orgs collaborating on Talon Project, Talon Initiative, and related sensor, comms, networking, and information processing & fusion technologies; • Institute for Defense Analysis (Joint Urban Ops) • Transition plans: Influence LDRD Investments; Implementation of major funded program under Talon Initiative; Influence on, and contribution to, accelerating efforts at national level • SDAC Team: Ron Pate and Regan Stinnett • Improved ISR and Precision Situational Awareness at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels are needed for the War on Terrorism • Networked Sense/Decide/Act/Communicate (SDAC) “systems of systems” can provide the Virtual Presence capabilities needed for precision awareness and response in military, intelligence, and homeland security applications
Undecided Undecided Lover supporters Lover supporters Hater supporters Hater supporters Lovers Lovers Haters Haters Long Term Solutions… Goal: understand the society and shift the distribution in our favor