3. Development of Nanophotonics Markets

1. 3. Development of Nanophotonics Markets Michael Heuken: Aixtron T.P. Pearsall: EPIC

2. Break-out Group 3 • Development of a Nanophotonics Market Leaders: Heuken and Pearsall Key Questions: A. Development of a nanophotonics market in a major application? What is the application? What could be the trigger? Role of politics B. Market Volumes vs Time When must technology breakthroughs occur? • Gold Room after the Coffee Break

3. Definitions are important • What is nanophotonics • Is stained glass nanophotonic? • Markets exist for applications, not technologies.

4. Specific Application: Optical Disk Drive • Seagate Optical disk drive • Hard magnetic materials allow to make small magnetic domains • You need to heat up the area first , then flip the domain • To focus the energy in a smaller than the diffraction limit • Use a plasmonic lens structure to focus the energy • Trigger • Can’t reach the higher density of storage using soft materials • Manufacturing investment felt to be moderate generational upgrade • Political • On the Disk industry roadmap uncertain effect

5. Specific Application: Backlighting • LCD back-lighting by LEDs • Advantage of LEDS • Better chromaticity • Makes LCD brighter better color rendering • High price is an obstacle to implementation • Patent blockage • Trigger • Develop LED technology that gets around exisiting patents • Processes using other kinds of LEDs, like OLEDs • Politcal • Important IP issues

6. Specific Application: Secure Communications • Highly secure High Data rate Communication with quantum cryptography • Free-space note different wavelengths and different sources • Fibre guided • Trigger for application • Development of a single quantum dot emitter implement Q-bits • Electrically driven, of course • Lower cost device like LED or VCSEL • Political input • Value of 100% safe communication • Importance for military and commercial applications • How do you treat criminal communication?

7. Preliminary Data from Yole Développement • Question One • Some analysis of high and low impact technologies • Question two • A projection on the time to market

8. Market growth and size for applications targeted by nanophotonics Photovoltaic Imaging (IR & CMOS) Relative market growth Size of bubble corresponds to Market size in 2009 LED lighting Flat panel displays (LCD, plasma, OLED, FED) Optical interconnect $10B Data telecom (laser, switches, amplifier, filter) Data storage (laser, holographic memory) $1B Instrumentation (SNOM probes) 0.1 $B Components Systems

9. Definitions of the different impact levels of nanophotonic Impact of nanophotonic on the application field: • Low impact: • Devices with mainly incremental benefits (no real breakthroughs). • No major new devices are emerging because of nanophotonics. • Nanophotonic device sales are estimated to be less than 1 % for the considered application in 2009. • Medium impact: • Significant benefits compared to traditional technologies • Some new devices are emerging because of nanophotonics, but with a limited impact on the application field. • Nanophotonic device sales are estimated to be between 1 to 10 % for the considered application in 2009. • Strong impact: • Very important benefits compared to traditional technologies • New devices are developed with an important impact on the application field : market structure reorganization, booster of the application field sales. • Nanophotonic device sales are estimated to be higher than 10 % for the considered application in 2009.

10. Nanophotonic impact on global market volumes Photovoltaic Photovoltaic Imaging (IR & CMOS) Imaging (IR & CMOS) Relative market growth Size of bubble corresponds to Market size in 2009 LED lighting $10B Flat panel displays (LCD, plasma, OLED, FED) Optical interconnect $1B Data telecom (laser, switches, amplifier, filter) Data storage (laser, holographic memory) Data storage (laser, holographic memory) 0.1 $B Red = high impact Orange = medium impact Yellow = low impact Instrumentation (SNOM probes) Instrumentation (SNOM probes) Component System

11. Time-to-market Schedule when most of the nanophotonics devices will move to applied R&D and first market applications. Instrumentation/ metrology Calendar as proposed by MONA project Sensors Photovoltaics Data storage Optical interconnects Datacoms/ telecoms Displays Imaging Lighting Time to market 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

12. Time-to-market Compare with previous slide. Breakout group advanced the timing of first commercial applications. Definitions are key to usefulness of such a calendar Instrumentation/ metrology OCT? Sensors Agree or Disagree? The Break-out group disagreed with the timing. Next generation nanostrucutres for photon harvesting nanosolar, konarka , go to the web site. See Spie Digital library Photovoltaics Data storage Seagate has plasmonic tip for laser assisted writing Revenue estimate? Datacoms/ telecoms Optical interconnects Displays In general we feel that nanophotonic technology is already on the market in most of these applications Quantum dots for Imaging Do functionalized nanoparticles for imaging count? Lighting Time to market 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015