Factors Affecting Hollywood Blockbusters Jeffry Ahlvin, Darren Doi Eric Luckwald, Charles Rabkin Micah Witt, Jong Woo, Calvin Yeung November 29, 2004
What are we doing? • The Big-shot hollywood producers want to know what factors most affect gross revenue of their blockbuster films. • We can help.
Dataset • US movies grossing over $150 Million • Released Since 1990 • Four Factors • Genre (Action/Suspense, Comedy, Drama, Sci-fi/Fantasy, Other… musicals & animated) • Release Season • MPAA Rating (G, PG, PG13, R… no XXX) • Production Budget • Data source: www.the-numbers.com
Technical – Regression • Effects of budget & genre variables • Drama appears most significant
Technical – Regression • Similarly… Rating and Season regressions indicate: • PG • Release in the Winter Problem 1: Titanic is skewing the data Problem 2: Factors not independent
Technical – Alternate Approach • Utilize contingency tables
Technical – Alternate Approach • Observed tables for other Factors PG-13 Action released in summer is most probable to exceed $150M
Results • How does U.S. Gross depend on Budget for selected factors • PG13 • Summer • Action • Predicted $0.86 Revenue/$Budget
Conclusions • Recommend a Summer Action movie with content limited to PG-13 • Inherently open to broadest audience • No effective age limits • School out • Action movies have high repeat appeal • Significant limitation of analysis • No failures included… big budgets with revenue below $150M • Results are conditional on a good script
Future Analysis Who should star in the movie?