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Common Stock Valuation

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Pat_Xavi
17 diapositives · 963 Views · Jan 24, 2012

Common Stock Valuation. Our goal in this chapter is to examine the methods commonly used by financial analysts to assess the economic value of common stocks. These methods are grouped into two categories: Dividend discount models Price ratio models Most importantly: Fundamental Analysis.

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  1. Common Stock Valuation • Our goal in this chapter is to examine the methods commonly used by financial analysts to assess the economic value of common stocks. • These methods are grouped into two categories: • Dividend discount models • Price ratio models • Most importantly: Fundamental Analysis

  2. The Dividend Discount Model • In the DDM equation: • V(0) = the present value of all future dividends • D(t) = the dividend to be paid t years from now • k = the appropriate risk-adjusted discount rate

  3. The Dividend Discount Model: the Constant Growth Rate Model • Assume that the dividends will grow at a constant growth rate g. • Then, the dividend next period (t + 1) is: • In this case, the DDM formula becomes:

  4. The Dividend Discount Model:the Constant Perpetual Growth Model. • Assuming that the dividends will growforever at a constant growth rate g. • In this case, the DDM formula becomes:

  5. The Historical Average Growth Rate • Suppose the Kiwi Company paid the following dividends: • 1998: $1.50 2001: $1.80 • 1999: $1.70 2002: $2.00 • 2000: $1.75 2003: $2.20 • The spreadsheet below shows how to estimate historical average growth rates, using arithmetic and geometric averages.

  6. The Sustainable Growth Rate • Return on Equity (ROE) = Net Income / Equity • Payout Ratio = Proportion of earnings paid out as dividends • Retention Ratio = Proportion of earnings retained for investment

  7. The Two-Stage Dividend Growth Model • The two-stage dividend growth model assumes that a firm will initially grow at a rate g1 for T years, and thereafter grow at a rate g2 < k during a perpetual second stage of growth. • The Two-Stage Dividend Growth Model formula is:

  8. An Analysis of theMcGraw-Hill Company The next few slides contain a financial analysis of the McGraw-Hill Company, using data from the Value Line Investment Survey.

  9. The McGraw-Hill Company Analysis, I.

  10. The McGraw-Hill Company Analysis, II.

  11. The McGraw-Hill Company Analysis, III.

  12. The McGraw-Hill Company Analysis, IV.

  13. The McGraw-Hill Company Analysis, VI. Quick calculations used: P/CF = P/E  EPS/CFPS P/S = P/E  EPS/SPS

  14. The McGraw-Hill Company Analysis, VII.

  15. Useful Internet Sites • www.nyssa.org (the New York Society of Security Analysts) • www.aaii.com (the American Association of Individual Investors) • www.aimr.com (the Association for Investment Management and Research) • www.valueline.com(the home of the Value Line Investment Survey) • Websites for the companies analyzed in this chapter: • www.aep.com • www.dteendergy.com • www.americanexpress.com • www.pepsico.com • www.starbucks.com • www.sears.com • www.intel.com • www.disney.go.com • www.mcgraw-hill.com

  16. Chapter Review, I. • Security Analysis: Be Careful Out There • The Dividend Discount Model • Constant Dividend Growth Rate Model • Constant Perpetual Growth • Applications of the Constant Perpetual Growth Model • The Sustainable Growth Rate

  17. Chapter Review, II. • The Two-Stage Dividend Growth Model • Discount Rates for Dividend Discount Models • Observations on Dividend Discount Models • Price Ratio Analysis • Price-Earnings Ratios • Price-Cash Flow Ratios • Price-Sales Ratios • Price-Book Ratios • Applications of Price Ratio Analysis • An Analysis of the McGraw-Hill Company