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Philippine Economic Outlook

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Philippine Economic Outlook

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    1. Philippine Economic Outlook Dr. Roberto F. de Ocampo President Makati Shangri-La 21 February 2006

    2. Outline of Presentation 2005 Philippine Economic Performance Analysis of Economic Performance Outlook for 2006

    3. 2005: A Challenging Year Protracted Political Crisis Fiscal Crisis from August 2004 Escalating Oil Prices Sluggish Export Demand Slow Recovery from El Nino in 2004

    4. Economic Performance Indicators Surprising, resilient GDP growth

    5. Economic Performance Indicators Slower growth in most Asian countries

    6. Economic Performance Indicators Strengthening Peso

    7. Economic Performance Indicators OFW Remittances on the rise

    8. Economic Performance Indicators Budget Deficit under control

    9. Economic Performance Indicators Stock market is rebounding

    10. Economic Performance Indicators T-Bill spreads falling

    11. Economic Performance Indicators Inflation easing

    12. 2006: Looking Up? Improved credit ratings outlook Increased tax collections from 12% VAT Improvement in agricultural outlook Better export potential Local business optimism

    13. 2006: Questions Remain Are things as good as they seem? If things are indeed going well, why is the economic growth not being felt by the general population?

    14. 2006: Challenges Remain Need to improve investment climate

    15. Economic Performance Indicators Limited FDI inflows

    16. 2006: Challenges Remain Need to improve investment climate Currency appreciation may be difficult to sustain

    17. Strength of Currency Change in BSP Regulations Entry of portfolio funds to select stocks in the market

    18. Economic Performance Indicators Return of Portfolio Investors

    19. Strength of Currency Change in BSP Regulations Entry of portfolio funds to select stocks in the market Excess global liquidity looking for Asian investments

    20. Strength of Currency Change in BSP Regulations Entry of portfolio funds to select stocks in the market Excess global liquidity looking for Asian investments Seasonal surge in OFW remittances

    21. Economic Performance Indicators Seasonal fluctuations due to OFW Remittances

    22. 2006: Challenges Remain Need to improve investment climate Strengthening currency may difficult to sustain Higher taxes may lower consumer demand

    23. Low Overall Competitiveness

    24. Why is Growth not Being Felt? Slow growth in agriculture Falling investments Low job generation High inflation caused by oil and VAT

    25. Potential Growth Drivers Improved VAT collections/fiscal reforms Infrastructure development Power sector privatization Mining Booming sectors: BPO / IT outsourcing Tourism Finance

    26. Potential Growth Challenges Tax revenue leakage Slow infrastructure development Opposition to mining investments Slow privatization

    27. Potential Risks Oil shock Bird flu pandemic Continuing political problems

    28. Political Situation Philippine Elections in 2007 Two major political forces at play: Those pushing for midterm elections Those pushing for parliamentary elections Both options require at least one year of preparation Critical date: June 2006

    29. Outlook for 2006 Political crisis overhang Stable growth India as model for development

    30. Philippine Economic Outlook Dr. Roberto F. de Ocampo President Makati Shangri-La 21 February 2006

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