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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

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  1. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FEBRUARY 2014 Economic Outlook is revized in the 1st and the 3rd weeks of the month. Recent Update: 02/21/2014

  2. OUTLINE A- MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK B- FOREIGN TRADE OUTLOOK 1) MERCHANDISE 2) SERVICES C- INVESTMENTS , FOREIGN CAPITAL and INCENTIVES D- FREE ZONES in TURKEY E- BILATERAL, REGIONAL, PLURILATERAL and MULTILATERAL TRADE February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  3. A- MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  4. GrowthForecastsforSelectedCountries/Country Groups (%) Source: IMF, OECD, WB • In 2012, Turkish economy grew by 2.2%. • According to the IMF, Turkish Economy is expected to grow by 3.8% in 2013. • In the third quarter of 2013, Turkish Economy grew by 4.4%. Turkish economy expanded by 4.0% in the first three quarters of 2013. February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  5. Forecasts for Merchandise and Services Trade Growth (%) Source: IMF and WTO • According to the IMF estimates, global trade volume of merchandise and services is expected to increase by 2.7% in 2013 and 4.5% in 2014. • According to the WTO estimates, global trade volume of merchandise and services is expected to increase by 2.5% in 2013 and 4.5% in 2014. February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  6. Economic Targets of 2014-2016 Medium Term Program *Actual ** Forecast (Medium Term Program, Ministry of Development – October 8, 2013) • Medium Term Program which covers 2014-2016 period aims to reduce the current account deficit gradually and increase the growth rate by minimizing the effects of global uncertainty. February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  7. Real GDP Growth of SelectedCountries/Country Groups (2012) Source: TURKSTAT, IMF, Eurostat * 2013 • Turkish Economy expanded by 2.2% in 2012. • TurkishEconomygrewby 3.0%, 4.5% and 4.4% in thefirstthreequarters of 2013, respectively. February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  8. AnnualEconomicGrowthRates (2002-2012) * Forecast, Medium Term Programme Source:TURKSTAT • Turkey has recovered fast from the global financial crisis. It is amongtheleastaffectedcountries from current global economic uncertainties. • Mean annual growth rate between 2002 and 2012 was 5.2%. • Real GDP growth for 2012 realized as 2.2%. February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  9. GDP Per Capita Source: Dollar value is from TURKSTAT, PPP GNI value from World Bank • Since 2002 GDP per capita has tripled from 3,492 USD to 10,497 USD. According to Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) GNI per capita surpassed 18 thousand USD. February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  10. Capacity Utilization Ratio (%) Source: TURKSTAT • Capacity utilization ratio realized as 73.9% in January 2014. February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  11. Industrial Production Index Source: TURKSTAT • Industrial production index increased by 6.93% year-over-year to 124.81(2010=100) in December 2013. February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  12. Inflation (Annual Percent Change) Source: TURKSTAT • Annual inflationin 2013 was realized as 7.40% and 6.97% according to CPI and PPI, respectively. February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  13. Real EffectiveForeign Exchange Rate (2003=100)   Source: CBRT • Compared to the previous month, as of January 2014, Turkish Lira has depreciated by 5.01% in terms of the CPI-based real effective exchange rate and depreciated by 4.01% in terms of the PPI- based real effective exchange rate. February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  14. Total Creditsand Consumer Credits (Billion TL)   Source: BRSA • Credits and specifically consumer credits increased in parallel to the growing domestic demand. • Total credits increased 3.71% on a monthly basis in December 2013. February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  15. CDS Premiums (Feb 19th, 2014) Source: DB Research * Higher CDS premiums indicate higher risk levels. • CDS premium of Turkey indicates a medium level of risk. February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  16. Financial Markets   Source: BRSA • Comparing to previous year, total assets of the banking sector increased by 26.3% and reached 1,732 trillion TL in December 2013. • Capital Adequacy Ratio of Turkish Banking Sector is 15.3% in December 2013. February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  17. EU Defined Budget Deficit/ GDP (%)   Source: Eurostat * 2010 • EU defined general government budget deficit/GDP ratio was 2.6% in Turkey in 2010 and Turkey satisfied the Maastricht criteria of 3%. Turkey also outperformed 22 EU Countries. • Central government budget deficit/GDP ratio was 2.0% in Turkey in 2012. • In 2013, central government budget deficit was 18,4billion TL. In January2014, central government budget surplus was 1,9billion TL compared to 5,9 billion TL in the same period of 2013. February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  18. GovernmentDebt / GDP (%)   Source: Eurostat • Debt/GDP ratio of Turkey was 36.2% in 2012, which was below the level in 25 EU Countries and the Maastricht Criteria (60%). February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  19. UnemploymentRates (%) Source: TURKSTAT • InNovember2013, boththeunemployment rate andSeasonallyadjustedunemployment rate was 9.9%. • Seasonallyadjustedunemployment rate in Euro Areawas 12.0% and 10.7% in (EU28) in December 2013. Interms of unemploymentratioTurkeyoutperformed 14 EU countriesaccordingtocurrent data. • AfterRussia, Germany, Englandand France, Turkey has the 5th largestlaborforceamongtheEuropeancountries. (2012, World Bank) February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  20. Potential of Population (2012) Source: World Bank and TURKSTAT (Turkey’s data are for 2013) • Turkey has a population of 76.4 million in which half of the population is under the age of 30.4. • Growth rate of population is 1.4% in Turkey, 0.2% in EU Countries and 0.1% in Germany. February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  21. GrowingDynamism in Turkey'sDomestic Market • Cell phone penetration rate in households: 93.7% (2013) • Internet access rate in households: 49.1% (2013) • Internet access rate in enterprises: 90.8% (2013) • PC penetration rate in households: 30.5% (2013) • Laptop penetration rate in households: 31.4% (2013) • Digital camera penetration rate in households:28.1% (2013) • Printer penetration rate in households: 14.0% (2011) February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  22. B- FOREIGN TRADE OUTLOOK February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  23. I) MERCHANDISE February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  24. Targets in MerchandiseTrade * Actual (Source: TURKSTAT) **Forecast: Medium Term Programme, Ministry of Development, 2014-2016) ***The Exports Strategy of Turkey For 2023 February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  25. Turkey'sShare in Global MerchandiseExports (%) • Turkey’s share in global merchandise exports was %0.83 in 2012. February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  26. ForeignTrade Volume/GDP (%) • The ratio of foreign trade volume to GDP was 49.5% in 2012. • Turkey’s integration to the international trade system is eminent. February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  27. ForeignTradeDevelopments 2011 - 2012 / January-December 2012 - 2013 * Energy corresponds to Chapter 27. Source: Ministry of Economy • In January-December period of 2013 compared to same period of 2012, exports decreased by 0.4% and imports increased by 6.4% respectively. February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  28. MonthlyExports/Imports • In December 2013 compared to same period of 2012, exports have increased by 4.8% and realized as 13.2 billion dollar and imports have increased by 16.7% up to the level of 23.1 billion dollar. February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  29. Distribution of ForeignTrade in BroadEconomicCategories EXPORT IMPORT February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  30. Main ExportItems * Percent change is related to the annual change in exports in 2013. Source: TURKSTAT February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  31. Main ImportItems * Percent change is related to the annual change in exports in 2013. Source: TURKSTAT February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  32. Main ExportItems (Annual) Source: TURKSTAT February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  33. Main ImportItems (Annual) Source: TURKSTAT Source: TURKSTAT February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  34. Main Import Partners (Share,%) Main Trade Partners (January-December2013) Main Export Partners (Share,%) Source: TURKSTAT February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  35. ExportsbyRegions Source: TURKSTAT February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  36. Imports by Regions Source: TURKSTAT February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  37. TariffRates Source: WTO Tariff Profiles, 2012 February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  38. 2) SERVICES February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  39. Targets in Services • Tourism:Besidesincreasingthenumber of touristarrivals, creating a structurethatimproves service quality, targetshigh-incomegroupsbydiversifying marketing channels, preservesnaturalcapitalandsustainability, andstimulatesthosetypes of tourismwhereTurkey has comparativeadvantages • Construction, Engineering-Architecture, Technical ConsultancyandContracting Services:Establishing a structurethatfitsTurkey’seconomicandsocialneeds, that is compatiblewithhightechnologyandinternationalrules, that is sensitivetoenvironment,thatcreateshighvalueadded, highforeignexchangeinflowandhighemployment, thatgrantshigh service quality, andthatrelies on qualifiedhumanandphysicalcapital. • Commercial Services: Increasingproductivityandcommercialtradevolumein a competitiveway, andtoencouragetechnologyandinnovation. February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  40. Turkey'sShare in Global Services Exports (%) Source: WTO • Turkey’s share in global exports of services was 0.99% in 2012. February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  41. TourismStatistics (Quarterly) Tourists visited (Thousand), Source: TURKSTAT • Turkey ranks as the 6th in the world and the 4th in Europe among the most favourite tourism destinations. • Turkey’s income per tourist increased by 2.6% in 2012 compared to 2011. February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  42. Contracting Services Abroad Contributions to the overall economic performance: Creating foreign exchange inflow, exports, employment, technology transfer; adding to the machinery stock, facilitating internationalization Regional Breakdown of Projects(%) • 38 out of the world’s top 250 contracting companies are Turkish. • Turkey ranks as the 2nd country (following China) in terms of the number of top contracting companies. February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  43. Logistics 2013 • Europe’s biggest truck fleet • 45 thousands trucks and 1,420 companies • Almost 1.2 million flights in 2013 • 2.6 million tonnes freight and 149.5 million passengers • 25. biggest fleet in the world • 52 airports and 76 ports • Total length of divided highways will reach 15 thousand kilometers. • High-speed railway projects are carried out rapidly. February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  44. Turkey’s EnergyPerspective • In thelong-term planning work, Turkey foresees to achieve the following targets in 2023 in thefield of energy; • To be able to make complete use of its potential of indigenous coal and hydro resources, • To make maximum use of renewable resources, • To incorporate nuclear energy into electricity generation • To secure rapid and continuous improvement in energy efficiency. • Turkey’sEnergy Corridor Concept • Strategy is to act as atransit country for secure & commercially viable projects andto be an energy terminal. e.g. TANAP (Trans-Anatolian Natural GasPipeline) Project SomeongoingimportantenergyprojectsthatwillhelpTurkey’sEnergy Security; • Mersin Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant-Russia • Sinop NuclearPowerPlant-Japan February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  45. C- INVESTMENTS, FOREIGN CAPITAL and INCENTIVES February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  46. InvestmentClimate in Turkey February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  47. Time Requiredto Start a Business Source: Invest In Turkey • The required time to start a business is 6 days in Turkey. February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  48. SkilledLabourAvailability Source: Invest In Turkey • Scoring is between 0 and 10. February 2014 Ministry of Economy

  49. TheSectoralBreakdown of ForeignInvestments *January-December Source: CBRT February2014 Ministry of Economy

  50. Breakdown of ForeignInvestmentsby Country * January-December Source: CBRT February2014 Ministry of Economy