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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

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  1. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FEBRUARY 2013 Economic Outlook is revized in the 1st and the 3rd weeks of the month. Recent Update: 08/02/2013

  2. OUTLINE A- MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK B- FOREIGN TRADE OUTLOOK 1) MERCHANDISE 2) SERVICES C- INVESTMENTS , FOREIGN CAPITAL and INCENTIVES D- FREE ZONES in TURKEY E- BILATERAL, REGIONAL, PLURILATERAL and MULTILATERAL TRADE February 2013Ministry of Economy

  3. A- MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK February 2013Ministry of Economy

  4. GrowthForecastsforSelectedCountries/Country Groups (%) Source: IMF, OECD, UN, WB • According to the IMF, Turkish Economy is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2013. • In the first threequarters of 2012, Turkish economy grew by 3.4%, 3,0% and 1.6% respectively, resulting in an average growth of 2.6% in the first threequarters of 2012 February 2013Ministry of Economy

  5. Forecasts for Merchandise and Services Trade Growth (%) Source: IMF and WTO • According to the IMF estimates, global trade volume of merchandise and services is expected to increase by 3.8% in 2013 and 5.5% in 2014. • According to the WTO estimates, global trade volume of merchandise and services is expected to increase by 2.5% in 2012 and 4.5% in 2013. February 2013Ministry of Economy

  6. Economic Targets of 2013-2015 Medium Term Programme *Forecast (Medium Term Programme, Ministry of Development – October 9, 2012) • Medium Term Programme which covers 2013-2015 period aims to strengthen macroeconomic and financial stability by reaching potential economic growth rate, decreasing the current account deficit further, reducing inflation and improving public fiscal balances. February 2013Ministry of Economy

  7. Real GDP Growth of SelectedCountries/Country Groups (2011) Source: TURKSTAT, IMF • Turkish Economy expanded by 8.5% in 2011, which was well beyond the expectations of the IMF (7.5%). February 2013Ministry of Economy

  8. AnnualEconomicGrowthRates (2002-2011) * Forecast, Medium Term Programme Source:TURKSTAT • Turkey has recovered fast from the global financial crisis and amongstthose countries affected less from current global economic uncertainties. • Turkey has the fastest economic growth rates in Europe. • Mean annual growth rate between 2002 and 2011 was 6%. • Real GDP growth for 2011 realized as 8.5%. • In the first nine months of 2012, Turkey grew by 2.6%. February 2013Ministry of Economy

  9. GDP Per Capita Source: Dollar value is from TURKSTAT • GDP per capita has tripled in the last ten years from 3,492 USD to 10,444 USD. According to Purchasing Power Parity (PPP),GDP per capita surpassed 15 thousand USD. February 2013Ministry of Economy

  10. Capacity Utilization Ratio (%) Source: TURKSTAT • Capacity utilization ratio realized as 72.4 % in January2013. February 2013Ministry of Economy

  11. Industrial Production Index Source: TURKSTAT • Industrial production index decreased by 3.8% year-over-year in December 2012 down to 135.9. February 2013Ministry of Economy

  12. Inflation (Annual Percent Change) Source: TURKSTAT • Annual inflation in 2012 realized as 6.16%. • In January 2013, the enflation based on CPI and PPI increased by 7.31% and 1.88% respectively. February 2013Ministry of Economy

  13. Real EffectiveForeign Exchange Rate (2003=100)   Source: CBRT • As of January 2013, Turkish Lira has appreciated by 1.6% monthly in terms of the CPI-based real effective exchange rate. • The level of depreciation is 0.5% in terms of the PPI-based real effective exchange rate. February 2013 Ministry of Economy

  14. Total Creditsand Consumer Credits (Billion TL)   Source: BRSA • Credits and specifically consumer credits increased in parallel to the growing domestic demand. • Total credits increased by 0.18% on a monthly basis and reached to 196.54 billion dollars in January 2013. February 2013 Ministry of Economy

  15. CDS Premiums (Feb 7th, 2013) Source: DB Research * Higher CDS premiums indicate higher risk levels. • CDS premium of Turkey is significantly low compared to most of the European countries. February 2013 Ministry of Economy

  16. Financial Markets   Source: BRSA • Comparing to previous year, total assets of the banking sector increased by 10.18% and reached 1.335 trillion TL in November 2012. • Capital Adequacy Ratio of Turkish Banking Sector is 17.39% in November 2012. February 2013 Ministry of Economy

  17. EU Defined Budget Deficit/ GDP (%) 2011 • EU defined general government budget deficit/GDP ratio was 2.6% in Turkey in 2011 and Turkey satisfied the Maastricht criteria of 3%. Turkey also outperformed 18 EU Countries. • Central government budget deficit/GDP ratio was 1.3% in Turkey in 2011 and Turkey outperformed 23 EU Countries. • In January-December 2012, central government budget deficit was 28.8 billion dollars. February 2013 Ministry of Economy

  18. GovernmentDebt / GDP (%) • Debt/GDP ratio of Turkey was 39.4% in 2011, which was below the level in 21 EU Countries and the Maastricht Criteria (60%). February 2013 Ministry of Economy

  19. UnemploymentRates (%) Source: TURKSTAT • InOctober 2012, theunemployment rate was9.1%. Seasonallyadjustedunemployment rate was9.3%. • Seasonallyadjustedunemployment rate in Euro Areawas 11.7% and 10.7% in (EU27) in November 2012. Interms of unemploymentratioTurkeyoutperformed 15 EU countriesaccordingtocurrent data. • AfterRussia, Germany, Englandand France, Turkey has the 5th largestlaborforceamongtheEuropeancountries. (2010, World Bank) February 2013 Ministry of Economy

  20. Potential of Population (2011) Source: World Bank (2011), TURKSTAT (2012) • Turkey has a population of 75.6 million in which half of the population is under the age of 30.1. • Growth rate of population is 1.2% in Turkey, 0.3% in EU Countries and -0.1% in Germany. February2013 Ministry of Economy

  21. GrowingDynamism in Turkey'sDomestic Market • Cell phone penetration rate in households: 93.2% • Internet access rate in households: 47.2% • Internet access rate in enterprises: 92.5% • PC penetration rate in households: 31.8% • Laptop penetration rate in households: 27.1% • Digital camera penetration rate in households: 27.1% • Printer penetration rate in households: 14.0% • 1 of each 5 people owns a vehicle. February 2013Ministry of Economy

  22. B- FOREIGN TRADE OUTLOOK February 2013Ministry of Economy

  23. I) MERCHANDISE February 2013Ministry of Economy

  24. Targets in MerchandiseTrade * Actual (Source: TURKSTAT) **Forecast: MediumTermProgramme, Ministry of Development- 10/09/2012) February 2013Ministry of Economy

  25. Turkey'sShare in Global MerchandiseExports (%) • Turkey’s share in global merchandise exports was %0.74 in 2011. February 2013Ministry of Economy

  26. ForeignTrade Volume/GDP (%) • The ratio of foreign trade volume/GDP was 48.7% in 2011. • Turkey’s integration to the international trade system is eminent. February 2013Ministry of Economy

  27. ForeignTradeDevelopments 2010 - 2011 - 2012 * Energy corresponds to Chapter 27. Source: Ministry of Economy • In 2012 compared to the previous year, exports increased by %13.1 and imports decreased by %1.8 respectively. February 2013Ministry of Economy

  28. MonthlyExports/Imports • In December 2012 compared to December 2011 exports have increased by 1.4 % and reached to the level of 12,6 billion dollar and imports have decreased by 3.7 % up to the level of 19.8 billion dollar. February 2013Ministry of Economy

  29. Distribution of ForeignTrade in BroadEconomicCategories EXPORT IMPORT February 2013Ministry of Economy

  30. Main ExportItems * Percent change is related to the annual change in exports in 2012. Source: TURKSTAT February 2013Ministry of Economy

  31. Main ImportItems * Percent change is related to the annual change in imports in 2012 Source: TURKSTAT February 2013Ministry of Economy

  32. Main Import Partners (Share,%) Main Trade Partners (January-December2012) Main Export Partners (Share,%) Source: TURKSTAT February 2013Ministry of Economy

  33. ExportsbyRegions Source: TURKSTAT February2013Ministry of Economy

  34. Imports by Regions Source: TURKSTAT February2013Ministry of Economy

  35. TariffRates Source: WTO Tariff Profiles, 2012 February2013Ministry of Economy

  36. 2) SERVICES February2013Ministry of Economy

  37. Targets in Services • Tourism:Besidesincreasingthenumber of touristarrivals, creating a structurethatimproves service quality, targetshigh-incomegroupsbydiversifying marketing channels, preservesnaturalcapitalandsustainability, andstimulatesthosetypes of tourismwhereTurkey has comparativeadvantages • Construction, Engineering-Architecture, Technical ConsultancyandContracting Services:Establishing a structurethatfitsTurkey’seconomicandsocialneeds, that is compatiblewithhightechnologyandinternationalrules, that is sensitivetoenvironment,thatcreateshighvalueadded, highforeignexchangeinflowandhighemployment, thatgrantshigh service quality, andthatrelies on qualifiedhumanandphysicalcapital. • Commercial Services: Increasingproductivityandcommercialtradevolumein a competitiveway, andtoencouragetechnologyandinnovation. February2013Ministry of Economy

  38. Turkey'sShare in Global Services Exports (%) Source: WTO, CBRT • Turkey’s share in global exports of services was 0.92% in 2011. February2013Ministry of Economy

  39. Balance of Payments - Services *January-November Source: CBRT February2013Ministry of Economy

  40. TourismStatistics (Quarterly) Tourists visited, Source: TURKSTAT • Turkey ranks as the 6th in the world and the 4th in Europe among the most favourite tourism destinations. • Turkey’s income per tourist increased by 1% in 2011 and remained the same in 2012. February 2013Ministry of Economy

  41. Contracting Services Abroad Contributions to the overall economic performance: Creating foreign exchange inflow, exports, employment, technology transfer; adding to the machinery stock, facilitating internationalization • 31 out of the world’s top 225 contracting companies are Turkish. • Turkey ranks as the 2nd country (following China) in terms of the number of top contracting companies. February 2013Ministry of Economy

  42. Logistics • Europe’s biggest truck fleet • (45 thousands trucks and 1,420 companies) • Almost 1,1 million flights in 2012 • (2.4 million tonnes freight and 130 million passengers) • 25. biggest fleet in the world • 48 airports and 76 ports • Total length of divided highways will reach 15 thousand kilometers. • High-speed railway projects are carried out rapidly. February 2013Ministry of Economy

  43. Energy • Turkey is an energy hub between energy producer and consumer regions February 2013Ministry of Economy

  44. C- INVESTMENTS, FOREIGN CAPITAL and INCENTIVES February 2013Ministry of Economy

  45. InvestmentClimate in Turkey February 2013Ministry of Economy

  46. Time Requiredto Start a Business Source: Invest In Turkey • The required time to start a business is 6 days in Turkey. February 2013Ministry of Economy

  47. SkilledLabourAvailability Source: Invest In Turkey • Scoring is between 0 and 10. February 2013Ministry of Economy

  48. Transparency in Finance Sector Source: Invest In Turkey • Scoring is between 0 and 10. February 2013Ministry of Economy

  49. TheSectoralBreakdown of ForeignInvestments • January –November Source: CBRT February2013Ministry of Economy

  50. Breakdown of ForeignInvestmentsby Country * January – November Source: CBRT February2013Ministry of Economy