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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

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  1. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK August 2012 Economic Outlook is revized in the 1st and the 3rd weeks of the month. Recent Update:01/08/2012 August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  2. OUTLINE A- MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK B- FOREIGN TRADE OUTLOOK 1) MERCHANDISE 2) SERVICES C- INVESTMENTS , FOREIGN CAPITAL and INCENTIVES D- FREE ZONES in TURKEY E- BILATERAL, REGIONAL, PLURILATERAL and MULTILATERAL TRADE August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  3. A- MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  4. GrowthForecastsforSelectedCountries/Country Groups (%) Source: IMF, OECD, UN, WB • According to the IMF, Turkish Economy is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2012. • Turkish economy grew by 3.2% in the first quarter of 2012. August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  5. Forecasts for Merchandise and Services Trade Growth (%) Source: IMF and WTO • According to the IMF estimates, global trade volume of merchandise and services is expected to increase by 3.8% in 2012 and 5.1% in 2013. • According to the WTO estimates, global trade volume of merchandise and services is expected to increase by 3.7% in 2012 and 5.6% in 2013. August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  6. Economic Targets of 2012-2014 Medium Term Programme *Forecast (Medium Term Programme, Ministry of Development – October 13, 2011) • Medium Term Programme aims to sustain economic growth, to decrease the current account deficit, and to preserve macroeconomic and financial stability. August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  7. Real GDP Growth of SelectedCountries/Country Groups (2011) Source: TURKSTAT, IMF • Turkish Economy expanded by 8.5% in 2011, which was well beyond the expectations of the IMF (7.5%). August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  8. AnnualEconomicGrowthRates (2002-2011) * Forecast, Medium Term Programme Source:TURKSTAT • Turkey has recovered fast from the global financial crisis and amongstthose countries affected less from current global economic uncertainties. • Turkey has the fastest economic growth rates in Europe. • Mean annual growth rate between 2002 and 2011 was 6%. • Real GDP growth for 2011 realized as 8.5%. • Turkey grows 3.2% in first quarter of 2012. August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  9. GDP Per Capita Source: Dollar value is from TURKSTAT • GDP per capita has tripled in the last ten years from 3,492 USD to 10,444 USD. According to Purchasing Power Parity (PPP),GDP per capita surpassed 15 thousand USD. August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  10. CapacityUtilizationRatio (%) Source: TURKSTAT • Capacity utilization ratio realized as 74.8% in July 2012. August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  11. IndustrialProduction Index Source: TURKSTAT • Industrial production index increased by 5.9% year-over-year in May 2012 up to 134.7. August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  12. Inflation (AnnualPercentChange) Source: TURKSTAT • Annual inflation in 2011 realized as 10.4%. • Monthly CPI change in June 2012 realised as 8.5% August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  13. Real EffectiveForeign Exchange Rate (2003=100)   Source: CBRT • As of June 2011, Turkish Lira has appreciated by 3,1% annually in terms of the CPI-based real effective exchange rate. • The level of appreciation is 2,2% in terms of the PPI-based real effective exchange rate. August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  14. Total Creditsand Consumer Credits (Billion TL) • Credits and specifically consumer credits increased in parallel to the growing domestic demand. • Total credits increased slightly on a monthly basis in June 2012. August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  15. CDS Premiums (Aug 15th, 2012) * Higher CDS premiums indicate higher risk levels. • CDS premium of Turkey is significantly low compared to most of the European countries. August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  16. Financial Markets • Total assets of the banking sector increased by 13.9% and reached 1,27 trillion TL in April 2012. • Capital Adequacy Ratio of Turkish Banking Sector is 16.19% in April 2012. August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  17. EU Defined Budget Deficit/ GDP (%) 2011 • EU defined general government budget deficit/GDP ratio was 2.6% in Turkey in 2011 and Turkey satisfied the Maastricht criteria of 3%. Turkey also outperformed 18 EU Countries. • Central government budget deficit/GDP ratio was 1.3% in Turkey in 2011 and Turkey outperformed 23 EU Countries. • In January-June 2012, central government budget deficit has increased to 6,7 billion dollars. August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  18. GovernmentDebt / GDP (%) • Debt/GDP ratio of Turkey was 39.4% in 2011, which was below the level in 21 EU Countries and the Maastricht Criteria (60%). August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  19. UnemploymentRates (%) Source: TURKSTAT • Unemployment rates have returned to the pre-crisis level. • In April 2012, the unemployment rate was 9.0%. (Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was also 9%.) • Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Euro Area was 11% and 10.2% in (EU27) in April. (*Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in EU(27) is 10.3% and 11.1% in EA in May) • Turkey has the 5th largest labor force among the European countries. (2009, World Bank) August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  20. Potential of Population (2010) Source: World Bank • Turkey has a population of 74.7 million in which half of the population is under the age of 29.7. • Growth rate of population is 1.36% in Turkey, 0.28% in EU Countries and -0.24% in Germany. August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  21. GrowingDynamism in Turkey'sDomestic Market • Cell phone penetration rate in households: 91.9% • Internet access rate in households: 42.9% • Internet access rate in enterprises: 90.9% • PC penetration rate in households: 34.3% • Laptop penetration rate in households: 22.6% • Digital camera penetration rate in households: 27.8% • Printer penetration rate in households: 14.0% • 1 of each 5 people owns a vehicle. (2010) August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  22. B- FOREIGN TRADE OUTLOOK August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  23. I) MERCHANDISE August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  24. Targets in MerchandiseTrade * Actual (Source: TURKSTAT) **Forecast: MediumTermProgramme, Ministry of Development- 13/10/2011) August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  25. Turkey'sShare in Global MerchandiseExports (%) • Turkey’s share in global merchandise exports was %0.74 in 2011. August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  26. ForeignTrade Volume/GDP (%) • The ratio of foreign trade volume/GDP was 48,7% in 2011. • Turkey’s integration to the international trade system is eminent. August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  27. ForeignTradeDevelopments 2010 - 2011 / 2011-2012 January-June * Energy corresponds to Chapter 27. Source: Ministry of Economy • In January- June 2012 compared to the same period of the previous year, exports increased by %13,4 and imports decreased by %2,1 respectively. August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  28. MonthlyExports/Imports • In June 2012 compared to June 2011 exports have increased by 16,9% and reached to the level of 13,3 and imports have decreased by %5,4 up to the level of 20,4 billion dollar. August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  29. Distribution of ForeignTrade in BroadEconomicCategories EXPORT IMPORT August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  30. Main ExportItems * Percent change is related to the annual change in exports in 2012. Source: TURKSTAT August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  31. Main ImportItems * Percent change is related to the annual change in imports in 2012 Source: TURKSTAT August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  32. Main Import Partners (Share,%) Main Trade Partners (January-June2012) Main Export Partners (Share,%) Source: TURKSTAT August2012 Ministry of Economy

  33. ExportsbyRegions Source: TURKSTAT August2012 Ministry of Economy

  34. Imports by Regions Source: TURKSTAT August2012 Ministry of Economy

  35. TariffRates Source: WTO Tariff Profiles, 2011 August2012 Ministry of Economy

  36. 2) SERVICES August2012 Ministry of Economy

  37. Targets in Services • Tourism:Besidesincreasingthenumber of touristarrivals, creating a structurethatimproves service quality, targetshigh-incomegroupsbydiversifying marketing channels, preservesnaturalcapitalandsustainability, andstimulatesthosetypes of tourismwhereTurkey has comparativeadvantages • Construction, Engineering-Architecture, Technical ConsultancyandContracting Services:Establishing a structurethatfitsTurkey’seconomicandsocialneeds, that is compatiblewithhightechnologyandinternationalrules, that is sensitivetoenvironment,thatcreateshighvalueadded, highforeignexchangeinflowandhighemployment, thatgrantshigh service quality, andthatrelies on qualifiedhumanandphysicalcapital. • Commercial Services: Increasingproductivityandcommercialtradevolumein a competitiveway, andtoencouragetechnologyandinnovation. August2012 Ministry of Economy

  38. Turkey'sShare in Global Services Exports (%) Source: WTO, CBRT • Turkey’s share in global exports of services was 0.92% in 2011. August2012 Ministry of Economy

  39. Balance of Payments - Services *January-May Source: CBRT August2012 Ministry of Economy

  40. TourismStatistics (Quarterly) Tourists visited, Source: TURKSTAT • Turkey ranks as the 7th in the world and the 5th in Europe among the most favourite tourism destinations. • Turkey’s income per tourist increased by 18% in 2010 and 1% in 2011. August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  41. Contracting Services Abroad Contributions to the overall economic performance: Creating foreign exchange inflow, exports, employment, technology transfer; adding to the machinery stock, facilitating internationalization • 31 out of the world’s top 225 contracting companies are Turkish. • Turkey ranks as the 2nd country (following China) in terms of the number of top contracting companies. August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  42. Logistics • Europe’s biggest truck fleet • (45 thousands trucks and 1,420 companies) • Almost 1 million flights in 2011 • (2.3 million tonnes freight and 117 million passengers) • 25. biggest fleet in the world • 45 airports and 51 ports • Total length of divided highways will reach 15 thousand kilometers. • High-speed railway projects are carried out rapidly. August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  43. Energy • Turkey is an energy hub between energy producer and consumer regions August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  44. C- INVESTMENTS, FOREIGN CAPITAL and INCENTIVES August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  45. InvestmentClimate in Turkey August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  46. Time Requiredto Start a Business Source: Invest In Turkey • The required time to start a business is 6 days in Turkey. August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  47. SkilledLabourAvailability Source: Invest In Turkey • Scoring is between 0 and 10. August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  48. Transparency in Finance Sector Source: Invest In Turkey • Scoring is between 0 and 10. August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  49. TheSectoralBreakdown of ForeignInvestments * January - May Source: CBRT August 2012 Ministry of Economy

  50. Breakdown of ForeignInvestmentsby Country * January – May Source: CBRT August 2012 Ministry of Economy