Field Project 3: Surveillance and control of Rift Valley Fever in the Greater Horn of Africa and the Middle East www.tomuphoto.com/gallery/ Landscapes/rift_valley
What is Rift Valley Fever? • Febrile disease that affects sheep, cattle, goats, humans, primates, camels • Vector: • Most human cases are mild and involve: fever, myaglia, vomiting, diarrhea, and/or hepatitis • Can become severe in small # of human cases: • Eye disease: 0.5-2% • Meningoencephalitis <1% • Hemorrhagic fever <1% Aedes (Neomelaniconion) and Aedes (Stegomyia), Culex, Mansonia, Anopheles and Eretmapodites, have all been shown to transmit the virus. Photo: news.bbc.co.uk/.../ newsid_934000/934032.stm
RVF Epizootics • Humans infected from: • Mosquitoes • Contact with blood/body fluids/organs of infected animals • First isolated in 1930 among sheep on a farm in the Rift Valley of Kenya • Recent Outbreaks • Egypt 1993, 1997 • Kenya, Somalia 1997-98 • First cases outside African Continent not until 2000 in Saudi Arabia & Yemen
Economic Impacts of RVF x Pastoralists in the Horn of Africa Markets in the Arabian Peninsula BOYCOTT Photos, clockwise from top left: www.uni-mainz.de, www.asergeev.com, www.fao.org Sheep infected with RVF
RVF Management: Group Decision Problem • Monitoring and forecasting system depends on cooperation between producers and consumers • If benefits of monitoring/forecasting are not spread across each group, essential players may not want to participate • Groups span across production, export, consumption, continents, religions, nationalities, and ethnicities.
How to overcome trade constraints? Development of a model that could: • Identify areas that are RVF enzootic with epizootic potential • Identify periods of high risk of RVF • Determine lead time in which high risk areas & periods can be identified • Establish linkages between model outputs & decision-making options at multiple levels
Developing a Monitoring & Forecasting System • Identify areas that are RVF enzootic with epizootic potential • Using historical data from Kenya, assemble a set of environmental layers to identify the areas where RVF is enzootic with epizootic potential • Apply them to the entire Horn of Africa & Middle East (Completed) (In progress)
Developing a Monitoring & Forecasting System • Identify periods of high risk of RVF (almost completed) • Determine lead time in which high risk areas & periods can be identified • Identify threshold values of rainfall, soil moisture, vegetation greenness, & inundation associated with historical outbreaks • Assess ability to predict exceedance of these thresholds at different times using global climate models (In progress) (In progress)
Developing a Monitoring & Forecasting System 4.Establish linkages between model outputs & decision-making options at multiple levels • Barriers to group cooperation must be identified, understood, and addressed in development of the system if cooperation is important • It may be necessary to design group cooperation mechanisms into reporting components of the monitoring and forecasting system
Reputation and Vulnerability • Reporting information on RVF outbreaks may hurt a producer’s credibility and reputation • A reputation of being a producer with high risk for RVF may make a vulnerable producer more vulnerable • Are there ways to address these problems?
RVF & DecisionMaking Potential areas to explore: • Incentives for voluntary monitoring • Sharing risk through sales contracts • Compensation schemes producers who provide sensitive information • Designing systems that take advantage of inter/intra group credibility effects • Incentives for vaccination of animals • Temporary restriction of trade from affected areas
Mechanism Design • Buyers in Middle East could compensate pastoralists for reporting sick sheep, making monitoring and auditing costs less prohibitive Questions: • Would buyers blacklist pastoralists because they shared information about the presence of the virus, can a contract be designed to overcome this? • Do pastoralists report differently: as individuals, as groups, across ethnic groups?
Groups and Contract Design • When making contracts, does the cost of revealing private information differ between individuals and groups? • We will build on existing research by developing tools to explore: • What constitutes a group and what are the premiums that group dynamics bring? • Experimental game in lab (Summer 2005) & possibly at conference in the field
QUESTIONS? Photo: www.freshtracks.ca/group_incentive.shtml