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Winning in Chaotic Times Society of Petroleum Engineers Houston/05.21.01

Winning in Chaotic Times Society of Petroleum Engineers Houston/05.21.01

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Winning in Chaotic Times Society of Petroleum Engineers Houston/05.21.01

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  1. Winning in Chaotic TimesSociety of Petroleum EngineersHouston/05.21.01

  2. “In 25 years, you’ll probably be able to get the sum total of all human knowledge on a personal device.”Greg Blonder, VC [was Chief Technical Adviser for Corporate Strategy @ AT&T] [Barron’s 11.13.2000]

  3. <1000A.D.: paradigm shift: 1000s of years1000: 100 years for paradigm shift1800s: > prior 900 years1900s: 1st 20 years > 1800s2000: 10 years for paradigm shift21st century: 1000X tech change than 20th century (“the ‘Singularity,’ a merger between humans and computers that is so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history”)Ray Kurzweil, talk april2001

  4. Part I: Brand InsidePart II: Brand OutsidePart III: Brand Leadership

  5. Forces @ Work IThe Destruction Imperative!

  6. Forget>“Learn”“The problem is never how to get new, innovative thoughts into your mind, but how to get the old ones out.”Dee Hock

  7. “It used to be that the big ate the small. Now the fast eat the slow.”Geoff Yang, IVP/ (Institutional Venture Partners)

  8. Read It Closely:“We don’t sell insurance anymore.Wesell speed.”Peter Lewis, Progressive

  9. “AssetlessCompany”John Bryan, CEO, on selling all Sara Lee’s manufacturing

  10. “Don’t own nothin’ if you can help it. If you can, rent your shoes.”F.G.

  11. The [New] Ge

  12. The Gales of Creative Destruction+29M = -44M + 73M+4M = +4M - 0M

  13. Forbes100 from 1917 to 1987: 39 members of the Class of ’17 were alive in ’87; 18 are in ’87 F100; the 18 F100 “survivors” underperformed the market by 20%; just 2 (2%), GE & Kodak, outperformed the market from 1917 to 1987.S&P 500 from 1957 to 1997: 74 members of the Class of ’57 were alive in ’97; 12 (2.4%) of 500 outperformed the market from 1957 to 1997.Source: Dick Foster & Sarah Kaplan, Creative Destruction: Why Companies That Are Built to Last Underperform the Market

  14. Brand InsideBrand Org:Lean, Linked, Electronic & Malleable

  15. White Collar Revolution!

  16. 108 X 5vs. 8 X 1** 540 vs. 8 (-98.5%)

  17. The Pincer 5“Destructive” entrepreneurs/ Global Competition“White Collar Robots”THE INTERNET![E.g.: GM + Ford + DaimlerChrysler]Global Outsourcing[E.g.: India, Mexico]Speed!!

  18. “A bureaucrat is an expensive microchip.”Dan Sullivan, consultant and executive coach

  19. Automation+75% of what we do: 40 “expert” decision rules!

  20. 80,000?

  21. IBM’s Project Eliza!

  22. Brand InsideBrand Work: The Professional Service Firm Model & The WOW Project

  23. So what will be the Basic Building Block of theNew Org?

  24. Answer: PSF![Professional Service Firm]Department Headto …Managing Partner, HR [IS, etc.] Inc.

  25. 11 September 2000

  26. 09.11.2000: HP bids $18,000,000,000for PricewaterhouseCoopersConsulting business!

  27. [“These days, building the best server isn’t enough. That’s the price of entry.”Ann Livermore, Hewlett-Packard]

  28. % Rev From Service:GE (80%) … IBM (80%) … HP … Sun????

  29. Maybe one [or more] of your“PSFs” becomes the tail that wags the dog?????[E.g.: engineering, IS-logistics-customer service]

  30. The Raw Material … The WOWProject!

  31. “Reward excellent failures. Punish mediocre successes.”Phil Daniels, Sydney exec

  32. Brand InsideBrand You: Distinct … or Extinct

  33. “New Economy changes how firms treat layoffs”Headline, USA Today (03.19.2001)

  34. New World of Work< 1 in 10 F500#1: Manpower Inc.Freelancers/I.C.: 16M-25MTemps: 3M (incl. CEOs & lawyers)Microbusinesses: 12M-27MTotal: 31M-55MSource: Daniel Pink, Free Agent Nation

  35. “If there is nothing very special about your work, no matter how hard you apply yourself, you won’t get noticed, and that increasingly means you won’t get paid much either.”Michael Goldhaber, Wired

  36. Brand InsideBrand Talent: The Great War for Talent

  37. “When land was the productive asset, nations battled over it. The same is happening now for talented people.”Stan Davis & Christopher Meyer, futureWEALTH

  38. “We have transitioned from an asset-based strategy to a talent-based strategy.”Jeff Skilling, CEO, Enron

  39. From “1, 2 or you’re out” [JW] to …“BestTalent in each industry segment to build best proprietary intangibles”[EM]Source: Ed Michaels, War for Talent (05.17.00)

  40. “We believe companies can increase their market cap 50 percent in 3 years. Steve Macadam at Georgia-Pacificchanged 20 of his 40 box plant managers to put more talented, higher paid managers in charge.He increased profitability from $25 million to $80 million in 2 years.”Ed Michaels, War for Talent (05.17.00)

  41. Message: Some people are better than other people.Some people are a helluva lot better than other people.

  42. “Top performing companies are two to four times more likely than the rest to pay what it takes to prevent losing top performers.”Ed Michaels, War for Talent (05.17.00)

  43. What gets measured gets done. What gets paid for gets done more.What gets paid a lot for gets done a lot more.

  44. “Talented people are less likely to wait their turn. We used to view young people as trainees; now they are authorities.Arguably this is the first time the older generation can – and must – leverage the younger generation very early in their careers.”Ed Michaels, War for Talent (05.17.00)

  45. The Cracked Ones Let in the Light“Our business needs a massive transfusion of talent, and talent, I believe, is most likely to be found among non-conformists, dissenters and rebels.”David Ogilvy

  46. “AS LEADERS, WOMEN RULE: New Studies find that female managers outshine their male counterparts in almost every measure”Title, Special Report, Business Week, 11.20.00

  47. Message: Women are better at this “virtual organization” stuff!

  48. Brand InsideBrand Action:Getting Started … a Personal Perspective

  49. Topic: Boss-free Implementation of STM/Stuff That MATTERS!

  50. THE IDEA“4Fs”: Find a FellowFreak Faraway