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Agenda for this Evening

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Agenda for this Evening

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  1. THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.  Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate, so that investors' shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Investing in any financial instruments does not guarantee that an investor will make money, avoid losing capital, or indicate that the investment is risk-free. There are no absolute guarantees in investing. HAWKTRADE and its members do not bear any responsibility for losses or gains made by members trading on their personal accounts based on analysis from HAWKTRADE meetings.

  2. Agenda for this Evening • Investment Competition • Market Performance • European Situation • Earnings outlook • Where is the market going? • Tshirts

  3. Investment Competition Problem • Due to a website malfunction, Investopedia failed to dilute shares of FAS after the company completed a reverse 1:5 stock split. • The result was gains that didn’t actually happen • Closed at $13.05 • Opened at $64.00 Next day • 1000 shares at $13.05 now equals 200 shares at $64.00 • The following users have been affected, and must adhere to the following account maximums. • Sean416- $52,000 • Dzigman-$64,000 • Jeffreynielsen-$50,000 • Ewelt6-$46,000

  4. One Week Performance: S&P

  5. Market Headlines Mon-Fri • Volatility up, Europe Bipolar once again • China Concerns • Oil, Gold up • New European Leadership • Italy borrowing costs up, threatened to fall • Italy new strategies to reduce debt, markets back to positive on yr.

  6. What Moved the Markets?

  7. Tue 01 Nov 11 | 12:11 PM ET China PMI Drags on Materials

  8. What are they doing???

  9. Wed 09 Nov 11 | 12:00 PM ET Italian Fears Weigh on Markets

  10. Italian Prime Minister Resigns

  11. European Changes • Greece, Italy, and the ECB all ousted their leadership and appointed sound, competent leaders. • Italy’s borrowing costs went up but senate passed debt reduction strategies to combat rising costs. Bottom Line • We’re not out of danger yet, but with new leadership the market can most likely count out the worst case scenario of no debt deal getting done and Europe completely falling apart. However, we are still hostage to what happens in Europe but not to the idiots running Italy, Greece, and the ECB. • Investors should start caring more about U.S. stocks and earnings than European fears. With the stock market back to positive for the year, hedge fund managers will likely transition to buy mode at least through the end of the year.

  12. Earnings Outlook • What these companies say about their future outlook will give us a good idea of what to expect through the end of the year and what sectors to look to.

  13. Market Technicals

  14. Technical Market Analysis • Bloomberg video • http://www.bloomberg.com/video/80022342/

  15. Historical Year End Trends • Yahoo finance histor. Video • http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/time-buy-let-history-guide-133607363.html

  16. Bulls vs. Bears

  17. Is the market poised for a year end rally? • http://www.cnbc.com/id/45256345/

  18. Airtime: Fri. Oct. 15 2010 | 4:14 PM ET Where’s the market going?

  19. Video Summary • Brown says Negative headlines out of Europe have now shifted from risk-off, to buying opportunities. • Earning season and technical levels justify a rally. • Market could rally to end of year and then fall off next year if Europe heads into recession/depression • Brian Kelly thinks Europe is stable short term but will eventually collapse.

  20. Bottom Line Over Break • Will key earnings reports give a positive outlook on economy/sector performance for holiday season? • Will new European leadership keep Europe moving in right direction? • Do the technical support levels hold? • If yes to the above three, then Nov-Jan could spark big year end rally at least for the short term.

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