Meeting carbon budgets – 5th Progress Report to Parliament

Meeting carbon budgets –5th Progress Report to Parliament Committee on Climate Change, June 2013 www.theccc.org.uk If you want to tweet about this report please use #cccprog13

Contents • Key messages of today’s report • Emissions and their drivers in 2012 • Emissions in the non-traded sector • Emissions in the traded sector • Sectors • Power • Buildings • Industry • Transport • Agriculture • Waste and other non-CO2 • Devolved administrations #cccprog13

Today’s report - Key messages • Economy-wide emissions rose 3.5% – due to relatively cold winter months compared to 2011 and switching from gas to coal in power generation. • Good progress on some measures such as adding new wind generation, insulating lofts and cavity walls, and improving the efficiency of new cars – but challenges sustaining progress in future. • Limited progress on solid wall insulation, low-carbon heat and energy efficiency improvements in commercial and industrial sectors. • Underlyingemissions reductions not enough to meet the 3rd and 4th carbon budgets – further Government action required to strengthen policies this Parliament. #cccprog13

CO2 emissions rose 3.5% in 2012 in the context of colder winter weather and a gas-to-coal switch in power generation. Small underlying emissions reduction #cccprog13

First non-traded sector budget achieved, second likely to be achieved – but not on track to meet 3rd and 4th budgets #cccprog13

Gross traded sector emissions rose by 5% in 2012 mainly due to the gas to coal switch. Deep cuts required to meet future budgets. #cccprog13

The price of carbon in the EU ETS has fallen further in 2012 and 2013 – important for the EU to put in place measures to strengthen the price #cccprog13

8% increase in power emissions due to gas-to-coal switching #cccprog13

Actual emissions intensity increased due to the gas-to-coal switch – but achievable emissions intensity fell to 315 gCO2/kWh #cccprog13

Additional wind capacity in 2012 was at record levels #cccprog13

Strong project pipeline – but concern over projects moving from development to construction. Onshore wind Offshore wind #cccprog13

Buildings emissions rose by 10% due to the cold winter weather and increased carbon intensity of electricity #cccprog13

Good progress on loft and cavity wall insulation and boiler replacement. Limited progress on solid wall insulation Loft insulation Solid wall insulation A rated boilers Cavity wall insulation #cccprog13

Industry emissions rose 3% reflecting increased carbon intensity of power generation - direct emissions were broadly flat #cccprog13

Limited evidence of energy efficiency improvements in the industrial sector in recent years #cccprog13

Surface transport emissions fell by 1.3% in 2011. NAEI estimates suggest that within this, emissions from vans increased, while those from cars and HGVs fell. #cccprog13

New car CO2 fell 3.6% to 133 gCO2/km in 2012 gCO2/km #cccprog13

New van CO2 fell 4.1% to 187 gCO2/km in 2012 It is anticipated that the European Commission will publish a strategy for HGV emissions in summer 2013, which is expected to consider regulating whole emissions over the vehicle lifetime after 2020. Note: SMMT publish an alternative estimate from 2011 onwards #cccprog13

Car km fell in 2012 – response to higher fuel prices, other factors? #cccprog13

Agriculture emissions estimates remained unchanged from 2010 – but are highly uncertain. Need for better evidence to frame policy response. #cccprog13

Waste emissions fell by 3% in 2011, and are now 64% below 1990 levels. This is largely due to reduced methane emissions from landfill. Landfill bans should be considered #cccprog13

Non-CO2 emissions arising from industry, transport, buildings and energy supply fell 4% in 2011 – EU legislation on F-gases should reflect full potential for low-carbon alternatives #cccprog13

Emissions in devolved administrations broadly track UK trend – with relatively good progress in renewable generation, energy efficiency improvements #cccprog13

Today’s report - Key messages • Economy-wide emissions rose 3.5% – due to relatively cold winter months compared to 2011 and switching from gas to coal in power generation. • Good progress on some measures such as adding new wind generation, insulating lofts and cavity walls, and improving the efficiency of new cars – but challenges sustaining progress in future. • Limited progress on solid wall insulation, low-carbon heat and energy efficiency improvements in commercial and industrial sectors. • Underlyingemissions reductions not enough to meet the 3rd and 4th carbon budgets – further Government action required to strengthen policies this Parliament. #cccprog13

Meeting carbon budgets – 5th Progress Report to Parliament