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Energy Systems Analysis

Energy Systems Analysis. Determinants 3: Environment. A Taxonomy of Environmental Problems (after WB, 1992):. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. Poverty Industrialization Affluence. A Word of Caution. Cross-sectional data (comparing different countries) only first step

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Energy Systems Analysis

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  1. Energy Systems Analysis Determinants 3: Environment Arnulf Grubler

  2. A Taxonomy of Environmental Problems (after WB, 1992): xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Poverty Industrialization Affluence Arnulf Grubler

  3. A Word of Caution • Cross-sectional data (comparing different countries) only first step • Longitudinal analyses needed too (track changes across countries and in time). • Income is surrogate indicator and not a causality driver! • Elasticity of impacts and peaks:-- pollutant dependent-- exposure dependent-- time dependent (“leap-frogging”) Arnulf Grubler

  4. 2 Environmental Kuznets Curves for Particulates: Urban Concentration vs. Total Human Exposure (Source: K. Smith, 2000, WEA Chapter 3) Arnulf Grubler

  5. Environmental Problems of Energy 1: Poverty, ignorance, and lack of capacity Arnulf Grubler

  6. London - December 1952Urban Air Quality and Mortality Arnulf Grubler

  7. Particulate Concentrations and Human Exposure in 8 Environments Exposure = People x Time x Concentration Arnulf Grubler

  8. Urban Air Quality – Standards vs. Reality ca. 1990 (WHO&UNEP, 1993) Arnulf Grubler

  9. Urban Air Quality in Megacities(WHO, 1993)

  10. Environmental Problems of Energy 2: Industrialization, growing awareness, regionalization Arnulf Grubler

  11. Sulfur Cycle Local, Regional, and Global Impacts * hydrogen sulfide (land)dimethyl sulfide (ocean) Stratosphere (cooling) * Air quality (health,corrosion) Drydeposition Wetdeposition Acidification Based on Crutzen&Graedel, 1986. Arnulf Grubler

  12. IPCC WGI AR4 TS (2007) Arnulf Grubler

  13. SO2 Emissions Scenarios SRES and IS92a(Schlesinger et al. 2000 TFSC 65:167-193) Arnulf Grubler

  14. Effect of negative SO2 forcing (right) and positive GHGforcing (left) onglobal mean temp change Smith et al., 2000TFSC 65:195-204 SRES lower SO2emissions (compared to IS92) lead to amplified Warming! Arnulf Grubler

  15. Excess Sulfur Deposition Above Critical Loads (high growth coal scenario A2 ca. 2020) Arnulf Grubler

  16. Sulfur Deposition (gS/m2) Europe, ca. 1990 China, A2 Projection for 2020

  17. A2 Acidification Impacts on Food Production Loss Percent losses Not assessed No damage < 10% 10 - 33% 33 - 75% > 75% Arnulf Grubler

  18. World – Sulfur Emissions by Region (cumulative, MtS) Arnulf Grubler

  19. European Sulfur Emission Reductions (MtS) Arnulf Grubler

  20. S/C Emissions Ratio vs. Affluence (Sulfur Peak) Japan Korea: 1975 at 3,000 $/cap UK, GER: 1965 at 10,000 $/cap Arnulf Grubler

  21. Environmental Problems of Energy 3: Affluence, deep uncertainty, globalization Arnulf Grubler

  22. Atmospheric CO2 Concentration at Mauna Loa (IPCC, 1995) Arnulf Grubler

  23. Energy-related Carbon Emissions by Region Arnulf Grubler

  24. IPCC Projected Temperature Change in Absence of Climate Policies Uncertainty: 50 % climate (sensitivity) modeling25% emissions (POP+GDP influence)25% emissions (TECH influence) Arnulf Grubler

  25. Energy – Environment Strategies xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Arnulf Grubler

  26. Improvements in Efficiency and Decarbonization: Diverse Paths Arnulf Grubler

  27. Policy Trade-offs: No Single Energy Hammer for All Environmental Nails • Incremental (fast)  radical (slow) • Partial (fast, cheap)  100% solutions • Add-ons (reinstating dominance of old) New systems (new tech + infra +…) • Single-purpose (carbon) multi-purpose (efficiency) • Local (100 flowers, fragmented)  Global (uniform, complete coverage) • Solving one problem, BUT creating a new one Arnulf Grubler

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