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Philippines

01 December 2006 Typhoon Durian has killed at least 146 people in the Philippines and authorities say hundreds more victims may be found in stricken areas cut off by the storm. Philippines.

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Philippines

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  1. 01 December 2006Typhoon Durian has killed at least 146 people in the Philippines and authorities say hundreds more victims may be found in stricken areas cut off by the storm. Philippines

  2. Typhoon Durian slammed into the central and northern Philippines Thursday with sustained winds of 150 kilometers an hour.

  3. Dec 1: Weather discussion …Wed 29th into Fri 1st Dec • extreme cold • deep inversion (2.92-0.7=2.2 km) • low Td • light wind • clear, sunny We will see a transition from extreme cold to a moderate spell – probably brief! Stony Plain 12Z Wed 29 Nov. 2006

  4. Heat island

  5. ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:00 AM CST WED NOV. 29 FOR ALBERTA… WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN EFFECT… AS VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR LINGERS OVER THE PROVINCE. WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY OVERNIGHT AS STRONG WESTERLY WINDS STARTS MIXING DOWN WARMER AIR ALOFT Respite will be brief? 48h prog – back to N flow GEM progs from 12Z Wed (500 mb height & vorticity) 24h prog shows incursion of westerly flow

  6. Coldest air pushed away/moderated Wed Nov 29, 08GMT GEMREG CUD BE A BIT FAST WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS OVR WRN RGNS AFTER MID PD But back again Edmonton thknss=513 dam GEM progs from 12Z Wed (sfc press & 1000-500 thickness)

  7. freezing contour loops along coast • how did it get that way?...

  8. this upper low hauled the continental air out to the coast… at Vancouver Int’l Airport (on coast) temp dropped to -11.5oC at 21LST Nov 28 CMC 700 mb analysis, 12Z Mon 27 Nov.06

  9. Edmonton 292 dam CMC 700 mb analysis, 12Z Wed 29 Nov. 2006 • Gulf of Alaska low pushing in the moist, milder air

  10. Wed Nov 29 22 GMT… ERN PAC AND WRN RGNS.. SFC TEMPS TO WARM UP SMWHT OVR SWRN PRAIRIES DAY2. WITH S/W TROF MOVG TO SWRN BC TONIGHT, WLY FLO ALFT WILL INSTALL ACRS ROCKIES ALLOWING FOR QUITE SIG LEE TROF TO SHOW UP THRU SWRN ALTA AND FOR STG-SVR CHINOOK WNDS TO SHOW UP ALREADY TONIGHT AND PERSISTING TOMORROW. COLD AMS OVR PRAIRIES WILL HWVR ONLY ALLOW FOR FLRYS THRU PRAIRIES WITH SNOW AMNTS NOT EXCEEDING 5 CM FOR THE PD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

  11. Thurs 30 Nov. • milder, overcast morning • shovelled a few cm of snow • largely clear by 1300 or earlier EC 7AM CST THURSDAY NOV.30 PRAIRIES...LOW PRESSURE AREA NR YEG THIS MORNING WILL TRACK SEWD ACROSS SRN SK TODAY AND INTO SRN MB FOR FRIDAY. WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING ABOUT 2 TO 4 CM OF SNOW ALONG ITS PATH. AB..STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTH… ARE BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCING VISIBILITIES. GUSTS UP TO 110KM/H HAVE BEEN REPORTED.

  12. ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CST THURS NOV 30. AB..STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTH SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. IN PINCHER CREEK AND CARDSTON WINDS ARE GENERATING BLOWING SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES. GUSTS UP TO 90KM/H WERE REPORTED AROUND 18Z. CONVECTIVE BAND DEVELOPED CENTRAL ALBERTA EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THRU THE PROVINCE WITH LOCAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 CM BEING REPORTED.

  13. fierce pressure gradient in the SW • new low likely to swing the cold air back south?

  14. little spot of mild air near Edmonton • much colder on all sides • isotherms difficult to untangle CMC 850 mb analysis, 12Z Thurs 30 Nov.

  15. GEM prog from 12Z Wed CMC 500 mb analysis, 12Z Thurs 30 Nov. • thickness ridge (trowal) easily seen in lee of Rockies • strong SW current • 24 hr prog did well

  16. 1) www.flightplanning.navcanada.ca/ 2) Select ASEP 3) Departure CYVR, Enroute CYLW 4) Destination CYEG 5) Select all ASEP products (base of page) 6) Submit 7) View ASEP products (base of page) 8) Select Enroute air temperature

  17. Wed mng. • super cold

  18. Wed evg. • warming aloft - not much at gnd

  19. Thurs mng. • little change aloft • inversion sustained, but even so • warming below 800 mb

  20. Thurs evg. • cooled 15C at 500 mb • cooled 10C at 700 mb • little change at 850 mb • surface inversion has mixed out (wind) • ie. much warmer at gnd

  21. This mng. (Friday) • cooled about 10C below 850 mb

  22. Sfc press & 1000-500 thickness • cold air to return for 12Z Fri? • thanks to the new low GEM 24 hr prog valid 12Z Fri GEM 24 hr prog valid 12Z Thurs CMC analysis 12Z Thurs (ie. GEM 0hr prog)

  23. 24 hr prog vld 12Z Fri • cold air has returned • prog good • much colder in N. Ab Edm 513 dam CMC analysis 12Z Fri

  24. wind, but not much advection • shouldn’t get colder in 12 hr term • radiative cooling over night -15 CMC 850 mb analysis, 12Z Fri 1 Dec. 2006

  25. 48 hr forecast • flow off coast onto C. and S Alberta • pushes back the coldest air • if new sfc low strengthens might bring back cold next week? • hopefully not if that 500 mb pattern persists Edm 534 dam

  26. 144 hr (6 day) forecast - GEM global run • C. Ab still in flow off coast • cold air back in Manitoba where it belongs Edm thickness 528 dam: 528 – 513  7 degrees warmer than today

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