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GTX: An opportunity not to be missed?

GTX: An opportunity not to be missed?. Licensing Opportunities for Treatment of Inflammatory Bowel Disease. PharmaC Solutions : Meisha Bynoe Rajini Haraksingh Wai Yip Kong Iain McConnell Salvador Yañez. License GTX001 and/or GTX002?. 2032. 2020. Patent expiry. 2010. Now.

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GTX: An opportunity not to be missed?

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  1. GTX: An opportunity not to be missed? Licensing Opportunities for Treatment of Inflammatory Bowel Disease PharmaC Solutions: Meisha Bynoe RajiniHaraksingh Wai Yip Kong Iain McConnell Salvador Yañez

  2. License GTX001 and/or GTX002? 2032 2020 Patent expiry 2010 Now

  3. Current IBD Status

  4. GTX001 – Value Proposition GTX001

  5. Expected Clinical Outcomes

  6. GTX002 – Value Proposition GTX002

  7. Expected Clinical Outcomes

  8. Financial Model – License GTX001 Model key assumptions Estimates, several units Expected free cash flows Forecast, Nominal USD millions 1,400 CAGR +4% 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 Forecasted revenues Net present value, USD

  9. Marketing strategy

  10. Implementation road map

  11. Moving forward

  12. Sources • Websites • Crohn’s and Colitis Foundation of Canada. http://www.ccfc.ca • The Merck Manuals Online Medical Library http://www.merck.com/mmpe/index.html • Articles • B.E. Sands, A.H. Steinhart, J.D. Lewis, S.B. Hanauer, T. Persson, W.J. Sandborn. (2003) Gastroenterology 124: A206 • R.S. Walmsley, R.C.S Ayres, R.E. Pounder, R.N. Allan. (1998) Gut 1998;43:29–32 • P.D.R. Higgins, M. Schwartz, J. Mapili, I. Krokos, J. Leung, E.M. Zimmermann. (2005) Gut54:782-788 • J.H. Cho. Nature Reviews Immunology (2008)8:458-466 • D. Weiss, P. Naik and R. Weiss. (2009) Nature Reviews Drug Discovery. • J.R. Korzenik, D.K. Podolsky. (2006) Nature Reviews Drug Discovery. 5: 197-209. • K. Lou, M. de Rond. (2006) Nature Reviews Drug Discovery. 5:451-452.

  13. Simple Clinical Colitis and Crohn’s Disease Activity indexes *One point each is added for each set of complications:

  14. 9 • Diseased population distribution Estimated diseased population distribution Number of diagnosed patients Ulcerative Colitis Mild Mild 219,000 219,000 38,517 34,740 Moderate Moderate 136,000 136,000 129,277 125,589 Severe Severe 64,000 64,000 255,306 256,910 Total Total 419,000 419,000 423,099 417,238 Chron’s Disease Mild 206,000 37,372 20,486 Moderate 184,000 108,125 42,314 Severe 77,000 356,146 476,054 Total 467,000 501,642 538,855 2008 2020 2032

  15. Estimated Pricing GTX0012020 = $18,000 GTX0022020 = $450 Expected Price2020 = 1/3(Premium Price2020) + 2/3(P.E.P.)(Equivalent Price2020) P.E.P. = patent expiry penalty All patents on current biologics will expire before 2020 IMs are all generics Assumptions: • 4% inflation • Equivalent price for Biologic = $10,0002008, Premium price = $20,0002008 • Equivalent price for Biologic = $1002008, Premium price = $7002008 • P.E.P. = 0.7 for biologics, 1 for non-biologics • Each of the 4 scenarios is equally probable

  16. Complete model

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