The Toolbox Revisited: It’s all about academic momentum.

1. The Toolbox Revisited: It’s all about academic momentum. Cliff Adelman Institute for Higher Education Policy October 8, 2008

2. Why did we have this study? • Because the original(Answers in the Tool Box) was getting old. It was based on theHigh School Class of1982through1993. It was time for an update. • People wanted more recent data. • So, this time we used the High School Class of 1992 through December 2000. • These are national longitudinal studies; another one, with the HS Class of 2004, is in progress, but we won’t see full outcomes until 2012. That’s the problem with getting older.

3. Who is it about? • Students who were 12th graders in 1992 and who subsequently attended a 4-year college at any time through December 2000 • 98% of this group graduated from high school on time in 1992, with a standard diploma • They represent 68% of all who were in the 8th grade in 1988; that is, 68 percent of 1988 8th graders both graduated from high school and attended a 4-year college at some time.

4. Who is this story about? • It is not about people who don’t finish high school. That is a different issue. • It is not about people who earn GEDs. • It is not about students who enter higher education for the first time at age 21 or more—they live on a different planet. • It is about traditional-age students who graduate from high school with a standard diploma.

5. What is it about? • Starting in high school, what contributes to earning a bachelor’s degree by age 26. • So it is not about entering college (access), • It isnot about your 1st year GPA, • And it is not about making it to the 2nd year. • It’s about what matters to students, families, and the nation---the culmination of opportunity, choice, and effort.

6. Important caveat--- • Revisiteddoes not attribute “cause” or claim “prediction.” It emphasizes “association” and “contribution.” • It does not spend time on social and psychological factors. This is an account of academic momentum---what contributes to it and what detracts from it. Other aspects of growing up happen; we can’t micromanage them.

7. Second caveat: when we get to postsecondary, • Revisitedis about your daughter, not your brother-in-law • The most grievous error we make in reporting postsecondary persistence, transfer, and completion rates is mixing histories of traditional-age students with the histories of older students.

8. Let’s get a basic story straight. Of all 8th graders in 1988 . . . • 78 percent graduated from high school on time (1992) with a standard diploma. • 53 percent entered postsecondary education directly from high school. • 48 percent persisted from their 1st to the 2nd year of postsecondary study. • 35 percent earned either a bachelor’s or associate’s degree by December 2000.

9. Let’s get a better story straighter. Of all 12th graders in 1992 • 40 percent earned a bachelor’s or associate’s degree by December 2000 • 4 percent earned a certificate • 6 percent were still enrolled, but without a degree • 31 percent had enrolled at sometime, but did not earn a degree and were no longer enrolled • 18 percent never enrolled in postsecondary

10. And as for the Dow Jones Industrial Average of U.S. higher education . . . • Among students who enrolled in a 4-year college at any time, 66 percent earned a bachelor’s degree by December 2000. • Among students who started in a 4-year college, 68 percent earned the bachelor’s • Among community college transfers, 60 percent earned the bachelor’s. • And the average time-to-degree was 4.58 elapsed calendar years. For community college transfers, average TTD was 5.54 years. Is anyone surprised?

11. And a critical note on those bachelor’s degrees Of those who earned the bachelor’sdegree,15 percentwere community college transfersanother 20 percentearned the degree fromadifferent4-year college than the one in which they started.We don’t count these people in our official graduation rate surveys!!!

12. Some other postsec markers to keep in mind • 20 percent don’t start in the fall term • 64 percent attended more than 1 school; 25 percent attended more than 2 • 13 percent of those based in 4-year colleges attended community college in summer terms; another14 percent moved back and forth between CCs and 4-year • 62 percent earned summer term credits ---all indicators of dynamic attendance patterns.

13. And what about that 1st-to-2nd year persistence rate? • 90 percent (yes, you heard that correctly) of those who start between July 1 and June 30 of Year X turn up somewhere and at some time between July 1 and June 30 of Year X+1 • But what matters more is the quality of persistence and 1/3rd of the 90 percent comes forward with unsatisfactory progress

14. What are the core postsecondary themes? • Academic momentum continues • Curriculum counts—both in high school and college • Student uses of time are now more important than place • Students are front-and-center as decision-making adults

15. High school findings, I: • Academic intensity of curriculum counts more than grades & test scores • But class rank & GPA counted more for the Class of ’92 than for the Class of ’82 • The curriculum intensity index is a package: you can’t separate one element out as more important than others • But if you had to do that, it would be a combination of highest level of math and number of Carnegie units in core lab science

16. At the highest level of academic intensity, high school graduates completed an average of. . . • 4.3 units of English • 4.3 units of math (and 94% at precalculus or calculus) • 3.6 units of core laboratory science • 3.8 units of foreign languages • 3.8 units of history & social studies • 3 Advanced Placement courses 95% earned a bachelor’s degree. Surprise???

17. This measure is criterion-referenced, so • Theoretically, everybody can get there • It’s what academic momentum is all about • But if they aren’t reading above the level of simple when they enter high school, the chances of “getting there” are low, indeed.

18. Reading levels in Grade 12 and Postsecondary Attainment

19. High School findings, II: • We are doing better in math and science, but not well enough • We still have opportunity-to-learn issues: we can’t close gaps if the high schools do not offer the curricula • Counting Carnegie units is not as effective as documenting content standards. Renaming a course doesn’t mean students learn more.

20. What does “doing better” mean? • For the HS class of 1992, 33% got beyond Algebra 2 versus 20% a decade earlier • For the HS class of 1992, 66% completed more than 1 year of core laboratory science versus40% a decade earlier • Among those who subsequently attended a 4-year college at any time, 21% were assigned to remedial math versus30% a decade earlier

21. And what does an “opportunity-to-learn” problem mean? • 45% of Latino students versus 59% of white students attended a high school that offered calculus • 19% of low-SES students versus 34% of high-SES students attended a high school that offered statistics • . . .and so on . . .

22. How do we get opportunity-to-learn? • Dual-enrollment, in which community colleges have taken the lead. • On-line and distance provision by all higher education institutions. • Summer residential high schools on college campuses. You can be very creative. . . .

23. The case of Argentina • Argentina’s population is the size of California’s, with 2 million postsecondary students and a horrendous drop-out rate. • Diagnosis: poor preparation • So, a program of 4-hour Saturday sessions for high school students, taught by 1 university instructor covering 3 subjects. • 25,000 signed up the first year; 70,000 the second; another near-tripling is expected.

24. What are the targets for academic intensity? • Mathematics beyond algebra 2. ‘Cause that’s how we know you mastered algebra 2. • Three years ofcore laboratory science (biology, chemistry, physics), or integrated laboratory science. • Demonstrable fluency in a language other than English(this includes heritage language speakers). • More than 1 Advanced Placement course or at least 6 dual-enrollment credits in lower division disciplinary introductions(e.g. General Psych, Microeonomics). • English language reading skills at complex inference—or all will be lost.

25. We are not merely counting Carnegie Units here, Part I • A student can show 4 units of math and still not get beyond plane geometry. • A student can record 3 units of science without a laboratory course. • A student can show 4 units of English and still be reading at a 9th-grade level. We can’t change the marquee on the theater and leave the show inside the same.

26. We are not merely counting Carnegie Units here, Part II • Rather, we should be on the track of the American Diploma Project, providing discrete, concrete examples of postsecondary assignments, examinations, laboratories to high school teachers, guidance counselors, students, and parents so that there is no disconnect between what students expect and are prepared to do and what turns out they are asked to do. • This is an open display of content standards.

27. And these examples must be included • In all college and community college recruitment and promotional literature; • In all application packages; • On all college and community college Websites; • Your primary business in our society and economy is the distribution of knowledge—and without these very public examples, students will not fully grasp what you are about.

28. For example . . . The following problem is on the first test given by the Community College of Baltimore County’s math department in College Algebra---and College Algebra is the key gateway math course in most community college degree programs, academic or occupational. So you bring the test to the high schools---to teachers and students. If the first college test becomes the last high school test in a subject, you know you have alignment.

29. Find the domain, range, and value indicated: write the answers in interval notation. (1,5) (8,4) (10,3) (-3,3) (1,3) (6,1) Domain:______ Range:_______ Evaluate f(1)______

30. And as long as you are at it. . . • Obtain the 51-step deconstruction of Algebra from basic through college-level from CalPASS, and • Think about creating an inter-segmental (2ndary school-community college-university) performance data system that tracks the progress of students on the 51-steps in relation to credentials (high school diploma, associate’s degree, bachelor’s degree). • Your best students, of course, have moved beyond college-level algebra (and trig) before high school graduation, but we’re not worried about them. It’s the others, and you want to see where they slow down or get stuck. The data flow will encourage instructional adjustments.

31. At the edge of high school science preparation. . . • Arsenic is toxic to humans when it replaces phosphorus in important biological molecules. Why can arsenic replace phosphorous in those molecules? • Why is the formula for magnesium chloride MgCl2? Look at Understanding High School Science Assessment (2006) from the Dana Center at U-T/Austin

32. Or something that calls for synthesizing information and differential perspective: • Suppose a new form of energy had been developed that, when brought on stream, would slow the earth’s rotation from 24 to 26 hours / day. • Before we can flip the switch, an environmental impact statement (EIS) must be filed. • What would be the principal chapter and sub-chapter heads for that EIS? This is an unrestricted response question, and you have 15 minutes to produce the outline. [Source: Academic Competences in General Education Exam, experimental, late 1970s]

33. Your references: • The American Diploma Project, Ready or Not: Creating a High School Diploma That Counts(2004) • Conley, College Knowledge: What It Really Takes for Students to Succeed . . . (2005) • Venezia, Kirst, and Antonio, Betraying the College Dream . . . (2003)

34. Did any demographics count in the Toolbox stories? • Only socioeconomic status (set in quintiles), and even that is modest. • Race/ethnicity drops out of the equations altogether when extended postsecondary performance is considered. • The following didn’t even qualify for the analysis: second language background, number of siblings, first generation status, urbanicity of high school community, etc.

35. Closing degree-completion gaps • Improving high school curriculum participation does more than anything else, and for Latinos in particular. • Summer term credits yield particular gap-closing benefits for African-Americans. • Cutting excessive Ws and NCRs in half is a solid postsecondary gap-closing move.

36. Areas/Topics of Disagreement • Accountability: Revisited holds students accountable, too. Some people don’t like that. • Demography. Some believe that race/ethnicity and SES are permanent shackles. • Financial Aid: some believe that’s the only reason students don’t finish. • The “every day has to be an Alexander’s very bad story day” people who will dismiss positive data. I think the Toolbox studies could have been better, but that they are honest stories, and we’ve all learned a lot since their appearance.