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Second IMO GHG Study 2009

This study presents estimates of current and future greenhouse gas emissions and other relevant substances from global shipping, including CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, NOx, NMVOC, CO, PM, and SOx. It compares emissions intensity with other transport modes and evaluates technology and policy options for emissions reductions. The study also considers the cost-effectiveness analysis and public health impacts of these options.

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Second IMO GHG Study 2009

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  1. Second IMO GHG Study 2009 TENTATIVE TIMELINE Presented to MEPC 59, July 13 2009 17:00 Summary of key results – 30 minutes with translation 17:30 Additional results and background – English only 18:15 Q&A 18:45 End

  2. A global team

  3. Estimate present day and future greenhouse gas emissions and emissions of other relevant substances from total and international shipping CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, NOx, NMVOC, CO, PM, SOx Estimate impacts of emissions on climate Compare emissions intensity with other transport modes Evaluate technology options for emissions reductions Evaluate policy options for emissions reductions Consider cost-effectiveness analysis and public health impacts Scope of work - outline

  4. Current and future emissions from shipping Dr. James Winebrake

  5. Inventory Approach Other emissions rates • Inventory assessed using an activity-based approach • Analytical details are found in the report along with a confidence assessment • Activity-based (bottom-up) approach was determined to be preferred over fuel statistics (top-down) approach

  6. World Fleet Fuel Consumption (2007) Bottom-up (Activity-based) estimates Top-down (Fuel-sales) data

  7. Emissions Summary (2007) Table 3-11 – Summary of emissions (million tons) from total shipping 2007* * HFC numbers for 2003. Transport of Crude oil numbers for 2006. ** Highly uncertain.

  8. Key Driving Variables (based on IPCC SRES scenarios) • Different values applied to three categories of ships: • Coastwise shipping - Ships used in regional (short sea) shipping; • Ocean-going shipping - Larger ships suitable for intercontinental trade; and, • Container ships (all sizes).

  9. CO2 Emissions from International Shipping

  10. Emission Scenario Trajectories (Total Emissions) NOx SOx PM10 NMVOC CO

  11. Climate Impacts from Shipping Professor Dr. Veronika Eyring

  12. Climate effects – CO2 Air quality, acidification – SOx, BC, NOx Different effects, different solutions Temperature, precipitation, winds, extreme events etc. Ocean acidification Loss of species, biodiversity Welfare & social impacts Air quality issues Adverse health impacts Sulphur deposition Loss of species, biodiversity BC/snow interactions

  13. How does shipping affect RF? • Radiative forcing (RF) is a metric measured in W m-2 as a change relative to the pre-industrial period (1750). • RF by nature is usually defined as a global mean • Shipping forcings operate on different spatial (and temporal ) scales: • CO2 – global (+ve RF) • CH4 – global (-ve RF) • O3 – oceanic (+ve RF) • Black carbon– regional to oceanic (+ve RF) • Sulphate – regional to oceanic (-ve RF) • Cloudiness – regional (-ve RF) NOx Eyring et al., Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: shipping, Atmospheric Environment, in press, 2009

  14. Shipping CO2 radiative forcing 47 mW m-2 in 2005 2050 CO2 RF 99 – 122 mW m-2 for main scenarios (min 68 mW m-2, max 122 mW m-2) Buhaug et al., IMO GHG Study, 2009

  15. Residual radiative forcings and global mean DT in 2007 and 2100 from shipping emissions up to 2007 ("ship-off scenario") Different lifetime: SOx and CO2 DT negative in 2007 Eyring V. and D. S. Lee, Climate Impact. Chapter 8 in Second IMO GHG study 2009, Buhaug et al. 2009 DT positive in 2100

  16. Stabilisation Scenarios Stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations by the end of the 21st century will require significant reductions in future global CO2 emissions. With 550 ppm, a target of 2 °C would be exceeded, and 450 ppm would result in a 50% likelihood of achieving this target. If ship emissions grow as the baseline scenarios and if all other sources follow the 450 ppm stabilisation pathway, then shipping contributes 12-18% of 2050 CO2.. 12-18 % of the WRE 450 scenario

  17. RADIATIVE FORCING Even with a present-day negative effect, the CO2 accumulation means that at some point, the RF may switch from cooling to warming (difference in lifetime between CO2 and S). Reduction of CO2 is important to prevent further climate warming The radiative and climate effects of non-CO2 pollutants are complex but do not imply retaining S to ‘mitigate’ CO2 effects IMPACT ON AIR QUALITY AND HUMAN HEALTH Ozone and aerosol precursor emissions contribute to air quality problems and have negative impacts on human health. New results (Winebrake et al., ES&T, 2009) provide important support that global health benefits are associated with low-sulfur marine fuels, and allow for relative comparison of the benefits of alternative control strategies. Conclusions

  18. Technical options for reduction of GHG emissions from shipsDr. Øyvind Buhaug

  19. Ship Emission Sources • Combustion (e.g. diesel engines) • Cargo emissions (e.g. VOC) • Leaks from onboard equipment (e.g. refridgerant leaks) Scope of study: GHGs: CO2 CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6 Other relevant substances: NOx, NMVOC, CO, PM, SOx

  20. Options for CO2 emission reduction • Improving energy efficiency • Renewable energy sources, • Fuels with less total fuel-cycle emissions • Not considered feasible for ships: reduction of emissions through chemical conversion, capture and storage etc.

  21. Assessment of Emissions Reduction Potential

  22. Policy options for reduction of GHG emissions from shipsDr. Jasper Faber 22

  23. Overview of Policy Analysis • Identify policies in the IMO debate until MEPC58 • Analyse them on the criteria set by MEPC 57 • Environmental effectiveness • Cost-effectiveness • Incentive to technical change • Practical feasibility of implementation

  24. Overview of policy proposals

  25. Marginal Abatement Cost Analysis

  26. Policy options to reduce GHG emissions • Market-based instruments are cost-effective and highly environmentally effective • capture the largest amount of emissions under their scope, • allow both technical and operational measures in the shipping sector to be used • can offset emissions in other sectors. • A mandatory limit on the EEDI for new ships is a cost-effective solution that can provide an incentive to improve the design efficiency of new ships. Its environmental effect is limited • it only applies to new ships • it only incentivizes design improvements and not improvements in operations.

  27. Thank you for your attention

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