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The Iowa Caucus

The Iowa Caucus. John Ainsley February 1, 2012. The Importance of Iowa. First state in the country to have a caucus or primary Media Attention Momentum Results could make or break a candidates campaign. A Little Room For Debate. Pros:

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The Iowa Caucus

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  1. The Iowa Caucus John Ainsley February 1, 2012

  2. The Importance of Iowa • First state in the country to have a caucus or primary • Media Attention • Momentum • Results could make or break a candidates campaign

  3. A Little Room For Debate • Pros: • Voters will get more information before they cast their vote • More motivated participants in a caucus • Everybody's vote will count due to realigning with stronger candidates. • Cons: • Democratic participants have to cast their vote out loud. • Very time consuming • No absentee ballots.

  4. Who Typically Does Well? • Conservative Candidates. • Both Social and Fiscally

  5. Iowa Through The Years • Victorious Democrats: • 1976: Uncommitted-37%, Jimmy Carter*-28% • 1980: Jimmy Carter- 59%, Ted Kennedy- 31% • 1984: Walter Mondale- 49%, Gary Hart- 17% • 1988: Dick Gephardt- 31%, Paul Simon- 27%, Michael Dukakis- 22% • 1992: Tom Harkin- 76%, Uncommitted-12%, Paul Tsongas- 4%, Bill Clinton*- 3% • 1996: Bill Clinton*- 98%, Uncommitted-1%, Ralph Nader-1% • 2000: Al Gore- 63%, Bill Bradley-37% • 2004: John Kerry- 38%, John Edwards- 32% • 2008: Barack Obama*- 38%, John Edwards-30%, Hillary Clinton-29% • Success in choosing the party nominee: 66%

  6. Iowa Through The Years (continued) • Victorious Republicans • 1976 (Straw Poll of Sample of 62 Precincts): Gerald Ford- 264, Ronald Reagan- 248 • 1980: George H.W. Bush- 32%, Ronald Reagan*- 30% • 1984: Ronald Reagan*-Unopposed • 1988: Bob Dole-37%, Pat Robertson-25%, George H.W. Bush*- 19% • 1992: George H.W. Bush- Unopposed • 1996: Bob Dole- 26%, Pat Buchanan-23% • 2000: George W. Bush*- 41%, Steve Forbes -31% • 2004: George W. Bush*- Unopposed • 2008: Mike Huckabee-34%, Mitt Romney-25%, Fred Thompson-13%, John McCain-13% • Success in choosing the party nominee: 66%

  7. The Candidates in 2012 • Republicans: Democrats: • Mitt Romney Barack Obama • Newt Gingrich • Ron Paul • Michele Bachmann • Rick Santorum • Jon Huntsman • Rick Perry

  8. Leading Up to January 3rd • July 5 (Mason-Dixon Polling) • Bachmann-32%, Romney-29%, Santorum-6%, Paul-3%, Gingrich-2%, Cain-1%, Huntsman-0%, Perry-0% • August 4 (Rasmussen Reports) • Bachmann-22%, Romney-21%, Paul-16%, Perry-12%, Gingrich-5%, Cain-4%, Huntsman-2%, Santorum- -- • August 31 (Rasmussen Reports) • Perry-29%, Bachmann-18%, Romney-17%, Paul-14%, Santorum-4%, Cain-4%, Huntsman-3%, Gingrich-2% • October 3 (NBC News) • Romney-26%, Cain-20%, Paul-12%, Bachmann-11%, Perry-11%, Gingrich-5%, Santorum-3%, Huntsman-1% • November 3 (Insider Advantage) • Cain-30%, Romney-15%, Gingrich-12%, Paul-9%, Bachmann-8%, Perry-6%, Santorum-5%, Huntsman-2%

  9. A Month Before the Big Day • November 30th (CBS News) • Gingrich-31%, Romney-17%, Paul-16%, Perry-11%, Bachmann-9%, Santorum-4%, Huntsman-1%. • December 13 (Rasmussen Reports) • Romney-23%, Gingrich-20%, Paul-18%, Perry-10%, Bachmann-9%, Santorum-6%, Huntsman-5% • December 27 (NBC News) • Romney-23%, Paul-21%, Santorum-15%, Perry-14%, Gingrich-13%, Bachmann-6%, Huntsman-2%

  10. 2012: The Results • Republicans: Democrats: • Rick Santorum- 25% ( 29,839 votes) Barack Obama- Unopposed • Mitt Romney- 25% (29,805 votes) • Ron Paul- 21% (26,036 votes) • Newt Gingrich- 13% (16,163 votes) • Rick Perry-10% (12,557 votes) • Michele Bachmann- 5% (6,046 votes) • Jon Huntsman- .6% (739 votes)

  11. Campaign Spending $ $ $ • Dollars spent on TV adds per vote. • Santorum: 15 Dollars • Romney: 132 Dollars • Paul: 52 Dollars • Gingrich: 29 Dollars • Perry: 332 Dollars • Bachmann: 10 Dollars • Huntsman: 0 Dollars • Total Spent on TV adds • Santorum: $448,035 • Romney: $3,934,260 • Paul: $1,353,872 • Gingrich: $468,727 • Perry: $4,168,924 • Bachmann: $60,460 • Huntsman: $0

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