2011 year of carbon price, says PM http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/mp/8407606/2011-year-of-carbon-price-says-pm/ Prime Minister Julia Gillard has vowed there will be nowhere to hide on carbon pricing with a firm and final decision next year. In a speech to the Council for the Economic Development of Australia in Sydney, Ms Gillard outlined an ambitious agenda for the remainder of her term, declaring 2011 a year of delivery and decision. She said Australians wanted their government to govern. Ms Gillard said the government had to decide a way of pricing carbon that was supported by a broad enough consensus to be legislated. She said the government's Climate Change Commission would carry out its task of bringing together expert opinion and public attitudes. As well, the Productivity Commission would publish advice on the measures being taken by trading partners and impacts of a carbon price on Australian international competitiveness. Ms Gillard said the multi-party climate change committee would meet increasingly regularly through the year. "Expert papers are already being released publicly and discussed in the committee," she said. "I promise you, no responsible decision maker will be able to say next year that they need more time or more information on climate change," she said. "In 2011 there will be nowhere to hide." Ms Gillard said Australia had weathered the global downturn. "Now in the recovery, we have to lift the speed limit of the economy," she said. Ms Gillard said the government needed to deliver fiscal consolidation and as the budget returned to surplus, economic capacity would be lifted through reforms to superannuation and company tax. She said 2011 would be the year of delivering high speed broadband and health reform. "I intend for 2011 to be defined less by politics and more by government," she said. "Australians do not face a federal election next year or the year after. Australians do not want their government to campaign. Australians want their government to govern. We are and we will. "So 2011 will be a year of delivery and decision."
An alternative view of climate hazard: the basis for policy? Professor Bob Carter James Cook University Townsville, Australia Global Warming Policy Foundation 1 Carlton House London SW1Y 5DB Nov. 30th, 2010
ICEHOUSE CONTEXT – is late 20th C temperature unusual? The last 6 million years – ODP Sites, Central Pacific Ocean WARM ~100 C COLD Diagram courtesy Alan Mix, Oregon State University
CONTEXT – internal climate variability and multi-decadal oscillations Averaged data points Raw data points 40 C Expanded scale After Richard Lindzen US Congress, Nov. 2010 0.60 C human? 0.90 C natural
CONTEXT – internal climate variability The thickness of the red line represents the range of the global mean temperature anomaly over the last last century. After Richard Lindzen US Congress, Nov. 2010
Long-term Arctic air temperature trend follows a ~60-year periodicity • Over the next 10-20 years, Arctic air temperature will DECREASE ….. . …. and the sea ice-cover of the north polar ocean will INCREASE. St. Petersburg Arctic & Antarctic Research Institute I.E.Frolov, Z.M.Gudkovich, V.P.Karklin, Ye.G.Kovalev, V.M.Smolyanitsky
CONTEXT - human influence 1. Warming (UHI) Australia Melbourne CBD Hughes, W.S., 1991. The Australian record on global warming. Tasman Institute.
CONTEXT - human influence 2. Cooling (land-use changes) So what is the net human temperature influence …. worldwide? Western Australia: wheat belt
100 CONTEXT – horizontal (latitudinal) change in temperature 280 8 0 ~180 C in 3000 km ~10 C /150 km 200 0 10 30 temperature contours
CONTEXT – vertical change in temperature (moist) lapse rate = ~60 C/km ~60 C km ~0.60 C /100 m So – take your dog for a morning walk up a 100 m high hill and the temperature will have changed as much as it did in the whole 20th C.
CONTEXT: CO2 – levels through time 280 ppm (or even 390 or 560 ppm) indicates CO2 starvation compared with the geological past
CONTEXT: NOBODY LIVES IN A “WORLD CLIMATE” Peel, M. C., Finlayson, B. L., and McMahon, T. A.: Updated world map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1633-1644, 2007. Is there then a REAL climate problem? You bet. Climate hazards stem from LOCAL geographic setting
HERE, THEN, IS THE REAL PROBLEM http://www.news.com.au/gallery/0,23607,5037339-5006020-10,00.html
BLACK SATURDAY – February 7, 2009 But are these WEATHER or CLIMATE events? 47 inches of rain (1.2 m) in 7 days (more than 6 inches/day)
GIANT STORM ANDREW, OCTOBER 16, 1987 Worst storm since 1703; 22 deaths; + Burns’ Day storm in Jan. 1990
NZ risk Earthquake Volcanic eruption Tsunami Landslide Storm damage Flooding Bushfire Risk of major costs NEW ZEALAND NATURAL HAZARDS VOLCANIC ERUPTION Mt. Ruapehu EARTHQUAKE Wellington Fault 400 m UK UNPREDICTABLE Climate change Sea-level rise ************** are just the same! * * * UNPREVENTABLE
NZ GeoNet 5 out of the 9 hazards are climate-related events (i) GeoNet is already world best practice – tailor-made to advise on longer term climate change hazard also; (ii) Next, one last thing
ABRUPT, NATURAL CLIMATE CHANGE WARM Temperature difference Summer 40 C, Winter 280 C 3 60 HOLOCENE Younger Dryas Antarctica LAST GREAT GLACIATION Greenland COLD 0 25000 Age (years before 1960) J. P. Steffensen et al., 2008. High-Resolution Greenland Ice Core Data Show Abrupt Climate Change Happens in Few Years. www.sciencexpress.org / 19 June 2008 / Page 1/ 10.1126/science.1157707.*
ABRUPT NATURAL CLIMATE CHANGE is the dangerous hazard Climate change, both warming and cooling, is a NATURAL HAZARD on ALL time scales Map reconstructions after Broecker, W.S., 2006. Abrupt climate change revisited, Global and Planetary Change doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.06.01
POLICY: IPCC PLAN A – “STOP” GLOBAL WARMING Cost – Benefit Analysis T -0.002o C Aus. Govt. IPCC U.K Govt. *£1,200/family/yr NEW TAXES $-Squillions POWER & INFLUENCE $3,000/family/yr NEW TAXES WHO ARE THESE PEOPLE AND WHAT ARE THEY LOOKING FOR? *UK - Estimated initial costs of CO2 measures (“Climate Change Act”) is £18 billion/yr CO2 taxation will result in NO measurable climate effect. To finish - you often hear it said that climate change is a moral issue
The opportunity cost of feckless spending on an ETS Corbis Bettmann, Borgen Project $60 billion/year “All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing” (Edmund Burke, attributed) Feckless: Lacking purpose or vitality; feeble or ineffective. Careless and irresponsible. Let’s finish by asking a really simple question ….
Will 2020 be …. like the Little Ice Age? • No-one knows! • We need to prepare for either. • Plan-A (IPCC) hasn’t worked, won’t work and can’t work. What’s Policy Plan B? .………… Or, instead, the Mediaeval Warm Period?
The world won’t be “saved” by Plan A (ETS: stop global warming) Brave; and futile 1854 Policy Plan B is ADAPTATION Read all about it here ! Stupid; and futile (1016-1035)
+ 2.50 - Is today’s rate of temperature change unusually high? From the distribution of δ18О for the last 50,000 years from the GISP2 ice-core RATE of temperature change over 100-yr intervals LAST 5,000 YEARS After NOAA, GISP2 Ice Core Temperature and Accumulation Data, Alley, R.B., 2004 Slide after A. Illarionov, Powerpoint presentation, December 2004.
CLAIMED NATURAL RANGE (from ice core data) TODAY 6. CUTTING CO2 EMISSIONS WILL CAUSE NO MEASURABLE CHANGE IN FUTURE CLIMATE Doubling CO2 from the pre-industrial level will cause a T increase of ~10 C. 70% of this theoretical rise in temperature has already occurred. (window paint) The warming effect of extra CO2 “Interglacial” (pre-industrial) “Glacial” DOUBLING 560 Slide after David Archibald, April, 2007 The Present and Future of Climate
TEST 3 TIMING OF INDUSTRIAL CO2 OUTPUT v. T-CHANGE Little relationship exists between CO2 and T change over the last 150 yrs After: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Egyptian (Menes) 1st Unified Kingdom Warm Period Is the magnitude of late 20th C temperature change unusual? The last 5 thousand years – Greenland Ice Core BC | AD Little Ice Age WARM 10 C COLD Egyptian Old Kingdom (5&6 dynasties) Warm Period Late-20th C Warm Period Mediaeval Warm Period Roman Warm Period Minoan Warm Period Grootes, P.M., Stuiver, M., White, J.W.C., Johnsen, S.J., Jouzel J., Comparison of oxygen isotope records from the GISP and GRIP Greenland ice cores. Nature 366, 1993, pp. 552-554. Slide after A. Illarionov, Powerpoint presentation, December 2004.
PART 1: CONTEXT Is the Temperature Warming or Cooling? Temperature trends from Greenland ice core data – the last 17,000 years WARM 2 2 ~100 C 1 COLD 16 000 14 000 8000 4000 2000 12 000 10 000 6000 0 6 3 4 5 nss HOLOCENE PLEISTOCENE 1. Warming since 16,000 yr BP 2. Cooling since 10,000 yr BP 3. Cooling since 2,000 yr BP (Christian Era) 3 4 4. Stasis since 700 yr BP (Little Ice Age cycle) 5. Warming since 100 yr BP (recovery from LIA) 6. Stasis since 1998 After Davis, J.C. & Bohling, G.C., 2001, The search for pattern in ice-core temperature curves. AAPG Studies in Geology47, 213-229.
deg. C anomaly 1.50 Lower atmosphere mean global temperature anomaly; radiosonde record, HadAT2 0.75 0.00 - 0.75 - 1.50 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1. GLOBAL TEMPERATURE WARMED SLIGHTLY IN THE LATE 20th C SATELLITE 2008 1979 385 (+15%)in 2008 CO2 = 335 ppm in 1979 WEATHER BALLOON 380 (+20%)in 2005 CO2 = 315 ppm in 1958 2005 1958 1980
380 = 365 ppm in 1998 CO2 2. Global Temperature 2002-2006 -- COOLING 4% Solar minimum is 1000+ days late (i) As predicted (but NOT by the IPCC models); and (ii) not only not an unusual rate & magnitude, but actually no warming at all
4a. WE LIVE ON A DYNAMIC PLANET Holgate, S.J. 2007. On the decadal rates of sea level change during the twentieth century. Geophysical Research Letters 34: 10.1029/2006GL028492. Av. = 1.6 a. The rate of sea-level change is NOT accelerating
Departure from the long-term mean 4b. WE LIVE ON A DYNAMIC PLANET b. The area of global ice cover is NOT in dangerous decline
4c. WE LIVE ON A DYNAMIC PLANET Maue, R.N., 2009. Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone activity. Geophysical Research Letters36, L05805, doi:10.1029/2008GL035946. c. The number/intensity of tropical storms is NOT increasing
T-Rex Measurement error Station coverage error The 5 climate data points of meteorology Bias error
THIS SCIENCE IS INDEED SETTLED: The 6 most important facts are these • Global temperature warmed slightly in the late 20th C. • 20th C warming was not unusual in either rate or magnitude • Global average temperature has declined since 1998; atmospheric CO2 has increased by 5% since 1998. • Humans have an effect on local climate • We live on a dynamic planet; ice volume, sea-level, storm intensity all change - ALL the time. • CO2 is a mild greenhouse gas. PAUSE 1 How on earth has it come about that ……. ?
How did all this happen - 2? International environmental lobby groups Worldwide Fund for Nature (WWF) US$487 million (46% individuals, 20% governments/aid agencies, 6% corporations) Greenpeace US$272 million 2002 Australian political party funding Electoral Commission, 2002 Labor Party $35.6 million Liberal Party $35.02 million National Party $9.46 million TOTAL $80 million 4
How did all this happen - 4? “The task of climate change agencies is not to persuade by rational argument. ... Instead, we need to work in a more shrewd and contemporary way, using subtle techniques of engagement. ... The ‘facts’ need to be treated as being so taken-for-granted that they need not be spoken.” “Ultimately, positive climate behaviours need to be approached in the same way as marketeers approach acts of buying and consuming. ... It amounts to treating climate- friendly activity as a brand that can be sold. This is, we believe, the route to mass behaviour change.” No conspiracy, but Nero is fiddling while Rome burns
Costs of the Carbon Dioxide Charade (You pay: climate doesn’t notice) Western aid demanded of $300 billion by China/India ($1,900/yr/US family); and $267 billion by African countries. UK. Estimated initial costs of CO2 taxation (“Climate Change Act”) is £324-404 billion (£16,000-20,000/family/yr). USA. President Obama’s CO2 tax (“Cap ‘n Trade”) will initially cost approaching $2 trillion ($4,500 extra costs/family/yr). Australia & NZ. CO2 taxation (“ETS”) will initially cost about $3,050 and $2,340 family/yr, respectively. Spain. Since 2000, each job created in the alternative energy industry has cost US $774,000 and been accompanied by the loss of 2.2 conventional jobs.
THE COALITION OF WARMAHOLICS Alarmists and lobbyists for a CO2-trading system • 1. Greens & NGOs (who started it) – power, influence • Governments & politicians – who seek election by winning the swinging voters in marginal seats • 3. Bureaucracies (IPCC, AGO) – budget maintenance • 4. Scientists - $10 billion in research funding annually • Church organisations – desperate for “relevance” • Alternative energy providers – rent seeking • 7. Carbon indulgences industry – moral piety • Big business & financiers – who seek planning certainty; CO2-trading is a ticket-clipper’s dream • Education system – remorseless environmental guilt awakening in children 10. The media (who relentlessly maintain the alarmism) - sells advertising, and makes them feel good PAUSE 2
CONSENSUS - 1 “Consensusis the process of abandoning all beliefs, principles, values and policies in search of something in which no one believes, but to which no one objects; the process of avoiding the very issues that have to be solved, merely because you cannot (otherwise) get agreement on the way ahead”. Margaret Thatcher, The Downing Street Years, p. 167.
Climate change policy: a failure of duty of care THE TIME FOR HEAD-BUTTING BETWEEN THE IPCC AND INDEPENDENT SCIENTISTS IS LONG SINCE PAST. New Zealand’s current Global Warming Policy is based on sub-prime Science, sub-prime Economics and sub-prime Politics New Zealand needs a cost-effective, middleground National Climate Policy to deal with ALL weather and climate hazards, based upon sound science, sensible precaution and prudent risk management (GCM computer modelling of climate is not predictive science) Climate change must be recognized as similar to other unpredictable, unstoppable natural hazards - volcanos, earthquakes, tsunami, bushfires, sea-level change. Adaptation to climate change is of the essence PM – climate sceptics are “reckless and irresponsible”
WE AGREE ON THESE THINGS • Humans cause local climate change. (so there must be a global effect; all that’s in doubt is its sign and magntiude) • Carbon dioxide is a minor greenhouse gas. • Global climate is a non-linear (chaotic) system.(So it is unpredictable) • GCMs are useful heuristic, but not predictive, tools. • Climate change has multiple causes AND WE DISAGREE ON THESE • There may be no warming since 1995/1979/1958/1940. • Climate sensitivity is between 0.3 and 1.3 deg. C. • The AGW signal is unmeasurable (lost in the noise). (despite CO2 increases of 5%, 15% and >20%) • The climate change we observe today results from natural forcings. (which is the null hypothesis and remains unfalsified)
Top-ten “reach for your gun” phrases When you hear one uttered, stop listening! The science is settled …… there is a consensus that ….. He is paid by the fossil fuel industry ….. She works for a right wing/left wing think tank …… He is just a climate sceptic; a contrarian ……. The “Pope” says so …… The Precautionary Principle says that ……. The Kyoto Protocol is only a first (small) step ….. I understand climate change, let me explain …… It’s just press irresponsibility (cf. smoking/lung cancer, HIV/aids) ….. Human-caused global warming has already been demonstrated ….. These arguments are used only to sidestep rational discussion; most often by doctrinaire persons who are bereft of scientific reasons for their beliefs.
Walsh, K. et al. 2002 CSIRO Atmospheric Research ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Important Disclaimer This report relates to climate change scenarios based on computer modelling. Models involve simplifications of the real processes that are not fully understood. Accordingly, no responsibility will be accepted by CSIRO or the QLD government for the accuracy of forecasts or predictions inferred from this report or for any person's interpretations, deductions, conclusions or actions in reliance on this report. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- On the back of the title page, in bold. "Climate Change in Queensland Under Enhanced Greenhouse Conditions" Final Report 1997-2002, 84 pp.
0C/100 yr 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.4 Is today’s rate of temperature change unusually high? (Starting Year for all calculations is 1979) 1.5 After Roy Spencer, UAH
EVOLUTION OF POLAR BEARS TODAY Is the magnitude of late 20th C temperature change unusual? The last 400 000 years – Vostok Ice Core, Antarctica HOLOCENE WARMER THAN TODAY COLDER THAN TODAY Salamatin A.N., Lipenkov V.Ya., Barkov N.I., Jouzel J., Petit J.R., Raynaud D. Ice-core age dating and palaeothermometer calibration based on isotope and temperature profiles from deep boreholes at Vostok Station (East Antarctica). Journal of Geophysical Research, 1998, vol. 103, N D8, pp. 8963-8977. Slide after A. Illarionov, Powerpoint presentation, December 2004.
DOES THE PATTERN OF ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE MATCH THEORETICAL PREDICTIONS OF GREENHOUSE WARMING? TEST 6 CCSP 1.1 – Chapter 1, Figure 1.3F PCM Simulations of Zonal-Mean Atmospheric Temperature Change