OwlSim : Revolutionizing National Energy Policies Through Technology

1. OwlSim: Revolutionizing National Energy Policies Through Technology COMP 410 in Collaboration with Citizens for Affordable Energy

2. Overview • Introduction • Simulation Framework • Energy Model and Plans • Advanced Features • Conclusion • Questions

3. Overview • Introduction • The Class: COMP 410 • The Customer: Citizens for Affordable Energy • Project Motivation • The Mission • The Team • Simulation Framework • Energy Model and Plans • Advanced Features • Conclusion • Questions

4. The Class: COMP 410 • “Software Engineering Methodology” • Design class satisfying computer science Bachelors of Science degree capstone requirement • Warm-up project during first 3 weeks, then semester-long project … with a real customer! • Student driven – no problem sets or lectures

5. The Customer:Citizens for Affordable Energy • CFAE is a national not-for-profit membership association • Goal is to educate citizens and policymakers about non-partisan national energy solutions • Leadership • John Hofmeister, Founder and CEO • Karen Hofmeister, Executive Director • www.citizensforaffordableenergy.org

6. Project Motivation • CFAE is concerned with the lack of a long-term national energy policy Current policy may result in serious shortfalls in energy availability, affordability and sustainability • CFAE wants a public software tool to simulate the long-term effects of national policies

7. The Mission • Develop a simulation framework to predict the effects of policies • Model U.S. electric power generation and distribution • Create plans corresponding to best, average, and worst case scenarios • Make the results accessible to the public

8. The Team • User Interface Team • Jesus Cortez, Team Leader • Robyn Moscowitz • Tung Nguyen • Narae Kim • Simulation Team • AshrithPillarisetti, Team Leader • Linge Dai • Mina Yao

9. The Team • Modeling Team • Irina Patrikeeva, Team Leader • Elizabeth Fudge • Ace Emil • Framework Team • Weibo He, Team Leader • Jarred Payne • Yunming Zhang • XiangjinZou

10. Management and Support • Robert Brockman II – Project Manager • James Morgensen – Architect • Daniel Podder – Integration Master • Elizabeth Fudge – Organization Master

11. Overview • Introduction • Simulation Framework • Theoretical Design • System Capabilities • Energy Model and Plans • Advanced Features • Conclusion • Questions

12. Theoretical Design • Modeling complex systems with mathematical functions • Functions represented as modular “circuit elements” with inputs and outputs • Functional modules can be “composited” • Encapsulate components of model • Allows composite modules with other modules inside. • Arbitrarily complicated models can be created

13. System Capabilities • Scalability & Elasticity • Scaling up and down according to loads • Possible Parallel and distributed simulation instances • Possible Load Balancing • Flexibility • Supporting multiple Use Cases • Easy Maintenance , low cost • Stability • Handling hardware failures • Handling software failures

14. Overview • Introduction • Simulation Framework • Energy Model and Plans • Model Implementation • Viewing the Results • Worst, Average and Best Case Scenarios • Advanced Features • Conclusion • Questions

15. Model Implementation • Four main components drive the simulation • Producer Module • Consumer Module • Infrastructure Module • Environment Module

16. The Model Details • Producer simulates • Production of electricity from 8 sources • Coal • Natural Gas • Nuclear • Hydroelectric • Wind • Solar • Geothermal • Other (fuel cells, hydrogen, etc.) • Production of transportation fuel from 2 sources • Oil (petroleum) • Biofuels

17. The Model Details • Infrastructure module simulates • Transport of electricity and fuel • Exchanges the price with Producer module • Consumer module simulates • Electricity and fuel demand from consumers • Environmental module simulates • The net pollution emitted by Producer, infrastructure and consumer modules

18. Simulation Design • The system starts at 2010 with a list of initial values or assumptions • Based on the assumptions Producer calculates net production of electricity and fuel • User can provide events that change assumptions and affect the energy future generation

19. User Assumptions • User has the ability to change many aspects of simulation, including (but not limited to): • How much electricity and fuel is produced from each source • Net electricity and pollution produced from each source (by changing power plants capacity) • Electricity lost due to transmission • Cost of production from each source • Population growth rate

20. Worst-Case Plan • Simulation runs with default values (2010 data) • No new power plants are built • Nothing is done to reduce pollution • Population and energy demand grows while supply decreases due to decommission of old power plants

21. Average-Case Plan • User builds new energy sources • Producing more electricity from cleaner renewable energy reduces the gap between supply and demand • Environmental pollution is reduced • No technological breakthroughs (capacity and cost of production do not drastically change)

22. Best-Case Plan • Supply meets demand • Energy is produced from clean renewable sources at affordable price • Pollution is reduced

23. Comparison with Other Models • No complicated equations • Directly shows user changes • Easy to use and test various assumptions • Unbiased

24. Overview • Introduction • Simulation Framework • Energy Model and Plans • Advanced Features • Changing the Plans • Changing the Model • System Administration • Conclusion • Questions

25. Changing the Plans • User logs in using a Windows Live ID • Edit plan • Change inputs to simulation • Adding, changing events • Save plan • Simulate model with modified plan

26. Changing the Model • Allows completely customized models using XML format

27. System Administration • Used by CFAE administrators • Adding Users • Changing Privileges

28. Overview • Introduction • Simulation Framework • Energy Model and Plans • Advanced Features • Conclusion • Implications for Energy Policy Development • Acknowledgements • Questions

29. Implications for Energy Policy Development • Ability to model new policies rapidly • Lots of flexibility • Common ground to model different policies with same framework • Education of public • Public forum for discussion on energy policy

30. Acknowledgements • CFAE • John Hofmeister, Karen Hofmeister • Professors • Dr. Stephen Wong, Dr. Scott Rixner • TAs • Dennis Qian, Max Grossman, MilindChabbi, Rahul Kumar • Oshman Engineering Design Kitchen staff • Microsoft

31. Acknowledgements • Smalley Institute: • Dr. Wade Adams • Dr. Carter Kittrell • Dr. Richard Johnson • Steven Wolff • Others • Jeffrey Bridge, Jeffrey Hokanson, Stamatios George Mastrogiannis

32. Questions

33. References • EIA etc.