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Finding Climate Change and Being Useful by Ralph J. Cicerone John H. Chafee Memorial Lecture

Ralph Cicerone is writing a paper to be distributed by NCSE that will use the following slides.  In that paper, he will properly cite and identify each slide. Currently some of them are not labeled completely. Finding Climate Change and Being Useful by Ralph J. Cicerone

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Finding Climate Change and Being Useful by Ralph J. Cicerone John H. Chafee Memorial Lecture

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  1. Ralph Cicerone is writing a paper to be distributed by NCSE that will use the following slides.  In that paper, he will properly cite and identify each slide. Currently some of them are not labeled completely.

  2. Finding Climate Change and Being Useful by Ralph J. Cicerone John H. Chafee Memorial Lecture National Council for Science and the Environment January 26, 2006

  3. Ice extent during the Last Glacial Maximum Ruddiman et al (2005)

  4. Annually-banded ice cores can be used to reconstruct past climatic conditions… Cover photo: Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru (Lonnie Thompson)

  5. Moberg et al (2005) N. Hemisphere Surface Temperature Reconstruction

  6. Levitus et al (2005): Ocean heat content in three layers

  7. Barnett et al (2005): Observed and modeled ocean temperature changes Red circles: observed warming signal strengthGreen hatched area: range of signal strengths in PCM model with anthropogenic forcing included

  8. Last 50 Years Surface Temperature Change Based on Linear Trends (oC)

  9. Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent (1979 versus 2003)Image courtesy of NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center

  10. Emanuel (2005): Hurricane power dissipation index (PDI) PDI has increased dramatically in recent decades in both the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins

  11. Mauna Loa, Hawaii

  12. Global, Regional, and National CO2 emissions Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning, cement production, and gas flaring for 1751-2002

  13. Frohlich and Lean (2005): Recent analyses of satellite measurements do not indicate a long-term trend in solar irradiance (the amount of energy received by the sun)

  14. Immediate action with multiple benefits. Energy efficiency would: • decrease our dependency on foreign oil • improve our national security • decrease our trade deficit • decrease local air pollution • increase our national competitiveness • encourage development of new products for global markets • decrease household energy costs while also slowing the increases of CO2 and CH4 !

  15. Being Useful Through Science Polarized discussion obscures priorities. We must accelerate scientific research to deliver more useful results. For example, • regional precipitation and hydrology, • extreme events like daily high temperatures to be expected and minimum nightly temperatures in summer, • Arctic sea-ice futures, • What to expect after the next stratosphere-penetrating volcano?

  16. Being Useful Through Science - II • Effectiveness of policies to retard radiative forcing by slowing the CO2 increase, slowing the N2O increase, reducing atmospheric CH4 and tropospheric O3, reducing emissions of extremely long-lived gases. • Statistics of storm-driven sea surges for infrastructure and emergency planning and the insurance industry, statistics of hurricane intensities and frequencies. • Improved predictions of hurricane tracks (sea temperatures (depth), wind measurements by A/C and remote sensing, ships). • Communications: climate is more than surface temperatures • what is known and not known…

  17. 1997-98 El Nino Precipitation Anomalies Predictedprecipitation anomalies for Jan-May 1998 based on composite of eight previous ENSO events Actualprecipitation anomalies (relative to long-term averages) for Jan-May 1998 Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center

  18. Finding Climate Change and Being Useful by Ralph J. Cicerone John H. Chafee Memorial Lecture National Council for Science and the Environment January 26, 2006

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