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Major Issues in Mekong Development

Major Issues in Mekong Development. Issues for: Top of the LMB Basin. Physical Facts Socio economic Factors: ( Needs ) Current & potentials uses of MK resources Issues facing those in the upper LMB Who are affected ? ( via various allocation of resources ?). 1. Physical facts.

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Major Issues in Mekong Development

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  1. Major Issues in Mekong Development

  2. Issues for: Top of the LMB Basin • Physical Facts • Socio economic Factors: (Needs ) • Current & potentials uses of MK resources • Issues facing those in the upper LMB • Who are affected ? ( via various allocation of resources ?)

  3. 1. Physical facts Water Contribution: Upper Mekong (18%) Lower Mekong (82%)

  4. Lower Mekong water balance 2 INDEPENDENT STATES: LAOS & THAILAND The top part LMB contribute 53% of the total inflow The largest proportion of flow is from the left bank tributaries in Laos ( 35%)

  5. The Top of LMB - Left bank: largely mountainous w/ high peaks, steep land. Forest cover. Rich ecosystem intact. Very lightly population. One of the least developed region. -Right bank: Plateau, largely agriculture ( 80+ % of all land) highly populated. Fishery resources

  6. 2. SOCIAL/Economic factors: Demand

  7. Social/ EconomicPopulation Thai LMB 22 mil (of 63 mil) Laos 5.5 mil

  8. Population

  9. Economic growth Social/Economic factors: Drivers/ needs L& T economies of different types. • Laos heavy Nat. resources-dependence ( Ag. 53% of GDP) Poverty ~40%. Largely rural. Advantage in forestry & Hydro Power. 2. Thailand. Diverse economy( Ag. 16% of GDP) light, agro industry.Advt. In value added & quality products. Export throughout the region. MK sources users

  10. Different planning perspectives. Different expectation of BDP T. national agenda/priorities dominates the regional (NE/N ->parts in the LMB). Laos LMB part is the country. Macro-economic Context

  11. Resources Uses & trend for Top Of LMB • Hydro power generation • Irrigated /agriculture • In stream need: fishery resources, Ecological health, Habitat protection, Biodiversity, Pollution control, Navigation

  12. Uses for hydropower: Total cap of MKB is 43,000 MW UMB: 23,000 LMB: 30,000 MW Of the LMB 13,000 in Laos PDR, 13,000 in mainstream. Total installed capacity Now: UMB: 2850 MW LMB: 1800 MW

  13. Nam Ngum Dam - Lao PDR Major Dams Lao PDR: • Nam Ngum 1971 • Nam Theun-Hinboun 1998 • Nam Leuk 1999 • Xeset 1991 • Huay Ho 1999

  14. Pak Mun Dam - Thailand Major Dams Thailand: • Ubol Ratana 1965 • Nam Pung 1966 • Sirindhorn 1970 • Chulaphon 1972 • Pak Mun 1994

  15. Hydropower • Current installed capacity: • 16 dams ( Thailand 11 & Laos 5) • Of these 10 are hydro power w/ Cap 815 MW (L 607MW & T 260 MW) • Nearly 400+ Mw from Laos sold Thailand • Planned dams ( 2008-2016) • 14 dams in Laos energy export =4900 MW • 5 PJ of 3000 MW to Thailand • 7 PJ of 1900 MW to Vietnam Nam Ngum Dam - Lao PDR

  16. MK resources use: hydro power • Thailand sources of energy ( 97,000) • 15 % hydro power

  17. Energy requirement ( GWH)

  18. Trading partners in energy & hydropower From 2008-2020 Thailand: 7,400 MW From Loas 3700 MW (Hy) 700 MW (Lg) From Yunan 3000 MW ( Jinghong) Vietnam: 4,500 MW From Laos 2500 MW ( S) From Yunan 2000 MW ( Hanoi) Cambodia From Thailand: 90 MW

  19. 80% 60% 40% 20% Area Production Irrigation Changes in paddy areas & production 1990- 2000 Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand Viet Nam

  20. Irrigation growth Total dry season irrigated cropped areas(ha) Current: Upper LMB 0.4 mil ha, Lower LMB 3.50 mil ha

  21. Irrigation growth Irrigated dry season crop area

  22. Irrigation growth Irrigated dry season crop area

  23. Irrigation • Total regulation rate whole MKB is 2.5 %of annual flow volume • Thailand: • 10 large scale dams for irrigation w/cap for 240,000 ha. ( ?) • Total effective storage of 5460 mil. M3.(7% mean annual flow in Thailand) • Laos: • total effective storage of 5,200 mil m3. • Irrigate 160,000 ha POTENTIAL FOR EXPANSION OF IRRGATED AGRICULTURE ?

  24. Instream needs Fisheries resources Food security and local livelihood * Over 900,000 tons fresh water fish caught/ year in Laos & Thailand (133,000 /790,000 tons) *Fish Main protein intake for rural house holds/poor.Appx. 71% HH in L ( 2.7 mil) depend on fish & forestry Resources as livelihood main strategy 26-30 kg/h/y- Laos 30-45 kg/h/y-NE Thailand

  25. Instream needs Ecological health Habitat protection Bio-diversity Pollution controls

  26. Instream needs River transport and navigation The Mekong artery – protected under the 1995 Agreement

  27. Agro-industry - Aquaculture Fish hatchery

  28. Meeting the needs Keeping the balance

  29. Issues for the top of LMB #1 • The 2 counties are energy trading partners ( Thailand a prominent customer) with mutual gain & benefits. • Thailand get clean / inexpensive energy sources. • Laos PDR gets needed foreign exchanges -government revenue for macro economic development • MK water importance for irrigated agriculture. Laos-> potential for expansion, Thailand some expansion & intensification • Fishery resources are important base for their rural population's livelihood support/ food security. • Laos main livelihood strategy. • Thailand cushioning /safety net when all else fell in industrial sector

  30. Nam Ngum Dam - Lao PDR Issues for the top of LMB #2 • Issue of poverty ( esp. Loas) government need to earn more revenue to improve quality of life for its people-to give better basic social services. • Laos has wealth in natural resources -a important earning potential

  31. Issues for the top of LMB #2 • Maintaining Assets: Left bank ( Laos) has rich pristine N. Resources - largely in tact- important assets for country, MK region and some for the world & mankind. • Unique ecosystem which supports diverse species of plants and animal which are rare & global significance • Pool of precious Genetic resources ( e.g. medicine) might not be found anywhere else. • Complex of rich wetlands & ecology which regulates the functioning of the MK system, services of nature that support other economic productivities which we depend on. • Hydro power & forestry exploitation are " prime earners" for Laos. Dilemma: How to earn & develop and not losing the assets above??

  32. Issues for the top of LMB #2 • Forest cover loss ( shifting cultivation L ) • Thailandface rapidly Increasing energy demand - looking for supplying sources OUTSIDE the country • Delicate balance between needs/ priorities of Thailand ( as a whole state) and the people living of its LMB regions (The poorest part on the country - 60% of the poor here) Sometimes these needs are not the same. • Thailand decentralize industry /growth center to NE & N. We expect increasing urbanization in NE (EW Corridor) more water demand & control waste / pollution. • Pollution from existing agro industry - inadequate law enforcement/ monitoring.

  33. Issues for the top of LMB #2 • Irrigated intensification farming for export- how far do we go? High investment cost. High dose of chemicals. Good for export, but net benefit farmers? Risk market price & IN DEBTEDNESS ( 90%) & environmental cost ( not accounted for ) • Thailand - drastic decrease of fish /edible animals ( species & quantity) due to high dose of farm chemicals in farm ( & due to reservoir /storage scheme) • How to ensure that country macro gain is also local Gain- not local burden. How to ensure fruits of development are shared fairly for those who lost their life base? • Balancing act when dealing with China on Nat.MK resources use ( Navigation) - need cooperation, but not taken advantage of us.

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