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Global Environmental Change: Technology and the Future of Planet Earth Where will all the heat go?

Global Environmental Change: Technology and the Future of Planet Earth Where will all the heat go?. Eugene S. Takle Agronomy Department Geological and Atmospheric Science Department Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 gstakle@iastate.edu. Mechanical Engineering 484X, 8 February 2005.

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Global Environmental Change: Technology and the Future of Planet Earth Where will all the heat go?

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  1. Global Environmental Change:Technology and the Future of Planet EarthWhere will all the heat go? Eugene S. Takle Agronomy Department Geological and Atmospheric Science Department Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 gstakle@iastate.edu Mechanical Engineering 484X, 8 February 2005

  2. Outline • Evidence for global climate change • Future atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations • Simulations of global climate and future climate change • How much change is “safe”? • Summary

  3. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

  4. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2005

  5. 2040 Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2005

  6. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature Stabilization at 550 ppm

  7. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature “Business as Usual” (fossil intensive) 2100

  8. Associated Climate Changes • Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr • Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes decreased by 2 weeks in N. Hemisphere • Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased in extent by 10-15% • Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar, mountainous regions • Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N. Hemisphere • Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents • Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges • Snow cover decreased by 10% • Earlier flowering dates • Coral reef bleaching Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report

  9. Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes, 1999: Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.

  10. El Chichon (1982) Agung, 1963 Mt. Pinatubo (1991) Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

  11. Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

  12. Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

  13. Change in Downwelling Longwave Radiation vs. Change in Surface Temperature Normalized Change Longwave Down Surface (2m) Temperature From GEWEX News, 14, 1 (November 2004); http://gewx.org/gewex_nwsltr.html

  14. NASA photographs show the minimm Arctic sea ice concentration in 1979 at left and in 2003.Satellite passive microwave data since 1970s indicate a 3% decrease per decade in arctic sea ice extent.

  15. Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap has shrunk more than 20 percent. (Illustration from NASA) (http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/qthinice.asp)

  16. Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

  17. Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

  18. The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

  19. Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report

  20. 40% Probability 5% Probability Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report

  21. Climate Change Projected for 2100 Rapid Economic Growth Slower Economic Growth

  22. Source: Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).

  23. Kennedy Space Center Impact of a 1-m rise in sea level on low-lying areas Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m (~3 ft) rise in sea level Miami Source: Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).

  24. Climate Surprises • Breakdown of the ocean thermohaline circulation (Greenland melt water) • Breakoff of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

  25. Kennedy Space Center Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m (~3 ft) rise in sea level Miami

  26. Heat Absorption by Ice Masses • Arctic ice • Antarctic ice • Mountain glaciers • Mt. Kilimanjaro glacier will disappear within 20 years • Chacaltaya glacier, Andes Mountains, will disappear in 7-8 years (water supply for La Paz, Bolivia) • Italian Alps will lose its permanent ice in 20-30 years • Glacier National Park is losing ice at an accelerating rate

  27. Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

  28. What Consitutes “Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with the Climate System”? James Hansen, Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies: * Radiative forcing limit: 1 Watt/ m2 * 1 oC additional rise in global mean temperature

  29. Summary • Climate change is real and we need to be doing something about it • The longer we wait, the fewer our options • Regional patterns of warming will be complicated • Climate surprises can’t be discounted • We need dialog on what constitutes “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”

  30. For More Information • For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have seen in this presentation, see my online Global Change course: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse • Contact me directly: gstakle@iastate.edu • For a copy of this presentation: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/

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