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A Model for Predicting Bird Abundance

A Model for Predicting Bird Abundance. Adaptive Management Bank Rehabilitation Site Design Effectiveness Monitoring -- Meeting Program Objectives?. OBJECTIVES. Use Bird abundance patterns and Riparian characteristics

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A Model for Predicting Bird Abundance

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  1. A Model for Predicting Bird Abundance • Adaptive Management • Bank Rehabilitation Site Design • Effectiveness Monitoring -- Meeting Program Objectives?

  2. OBJECTIVES • Use Bird abundance patterns and Riparian characteristics • Predict bird abundance following construction and as riparian habitat develops -- Rehabilitation sites -- Program area

  3. Flow level Area of Disturbance Food availability Heterogeneity Emmigration Bird metrics t Abundance Density Productivity Bird metrics t+1 Abundance Density Productivity Construction Disturbance Replanting Riparian removal Veg metrics t Veg Class / Association Veg metricst+1 Veg Class / Association Side channel formation Timing Flow level Wildlife Model For Bird Response Habitat Arrangement Bird Behavior Restoration Hydrograph t+1 Hydrograph t Unit t Study area Rehab site Reach Unit t+1 Study area Rehab site Reach I II III Time

  4. Riparian Mapping and Inventory McBain and Trush, Redwood Sciences Laboratory

  5. Most Abundant Vegetation Types used for Regression Tree Model • White Alder • Narrowleaf Willow • Mixed Willow • Black Cottonwood • Mixed conifer – White Oak • Himalaya Berry • Calif. Grape • Canyon Live Oak • Grasses

  6. Variables for our Regression Tree Example • Vegetation Type • River Mile • Patch Size • Vegetation Type within 200 m of each Survey Station

  7. YELLOW WARBLER | 0.95 Vegetation Type White Alder- Narrow Willow - Black Cottonwood - Willow-Oak-Pines n=67 n=243 0.49 1.08 0.13 0.63 Veg. Type River Mile > 89 River Mile < 89 n=115 n=128 River Mi. > 83 River Mi.< 83 0.82 1.30 River Mi. > 105 River Mi. < 105 0.97 0.63 1.17 1.62 0.78 1.30 River Mi. > 90 River Mi. <90 Patch Size < .07 > 2.00 1.30 < 108 > River Mi. 2.10 1.10 1.20 0.72 1.30 0.40 1.10 0.07 Various Veg. Types

  8. Predicting Yellow Warbler Abundance Patch Veg. Assoc. RvrMi Pred x SE

  9. How Many Yellow Warblers in the Study Area? Predicted Mean/ Survey Area = Density; Density X Patch Area = Predicted Number of YWAR Total Predicted Number for All Patches = Estimated Population

  10. SONG SPARROW | 1.30 Vegetation Type White Alder- Narrow Willow - Black Cottonwood - Willow-Oak-Pines n=274 n=37 0.71 1.40 River Mile < 90 River Mile > 90 1.20 1.60 Veg. Type River Mile 1.14 1.80 1.60 2.50 River Mile Patch Size 0.92 1.30 Patch Size 1.80 1.40 1.50 0.90 2.40 1.70 1.20 1.80 0.90 1.90 0.77 1.60 Various Vegetation Types

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