The essence of SPICOSA Science-Policy Interface –

1. SPICOSA Training Support Pack The essence of SPICOSA Science-Policy Interface – Putting the SAF elements together = Model-generated scenarios from Design/Formulation/Appraisal step Output Other elements from Design step When science meets with policy: What are we talking about? Material produced by Anne Mette amette@kmgne.de and Audun Sandberg Audun.Sandberg@hibo.no

2. SPICOSA Training Support Pack SPICOSA Science-Policy Interface Some essential questions to think about: Is real life confronting scientists’ models ? Are scientific concepts shaping our ideas of real life ? Are scientists’ models confronting policy-makers ideas?Do scientists know the truth more than stakeholders do?Are scientists one (or more) of the stakeholders ? Are scientists neutral helpers who empower stakeholders? Are scientists most eager to empower themselves? The SPICOSA approach shall provide more knowledge based policy decisions (cfr. Lisboa strategy)? Material produced by Anne Mette amette@kmgne.de and Audun Sandberg Audun.Sandberg@hibo.no

3. Policy making process: No final solution

4. SPICOSA Training Support Pack • The essence of SPICOSA • To get a good Science-Policy Interface • It is crucial that the scientific information will be presented in such a way that: • the context and the variety of perspectives are made clear, and • the scientific information appear in a language and interpretation understandable for different stakeholders and policy makers. • In addition to this, knowledge must be shared: about the methodology - and about the limits of modelling and of working with scenarios. Material produced by Anne Mette amette@kmgne.de and Audun Sandberg Audun.Sandberg@hibo.no

5. SPICOSA Training Support Pack OUTPUT: the point of departure when entering the main step of science-policy consultation/ communication / confrontation/ dialogue/ deliberation • In the SPICOSA process we have so far undergone the following steps together with a key group of stakeholders: • deliberating and deciding on a policy issue to be tackled • creation of a Conceptual Model for all interlinkages • making of a system based model comprising social, economic and environmental components • calibrating and validating this model • developing scenarios based on different policy options for the underlying policy issue • NOW these results of this entire process, including the model simulations, shall be brought together and presented to a larger stakeholder audience Material produced by Anne Mette amette@kmgne.de and Audun Sandberg Audun.Sandberg@hibo.no

6. SPICOSA Training Support Pack Scenario Definition for Science-Policy Communication “A scenario is a story that describes a possible future. It identifies some significant events, the main actors and their motivations, and it conveys how the world functions……. Scenarios are based on intuition, but crafted as analytical structures… They do not provide a consensus view of the future, nor are they predictions: they describe a context and how it may change, but they do not describe the implications of the scenarios for potential users nor dictate how they must respond…. Scenarios are intended to form the basis for a strategic conversation – they are a method for considering potential implications of and possible responses to different events”Shell International 2003. Exploring the Future. Scenarios: An Explorer’s Guide, Shell Centre, London Material produced by Anne Mette amette@kmgne.de and Audun Sandberg Audun.Sandberg@hibo.no

7. SPICOSA Training Support Pack Communicating Science is not without its challenges: You do not want this to happen to you when presenting complex scientific interrelations to a mixed stakeholder audience! Beware that the level of participative communication and deliberation cannot be modeled! Material produced by Anne Mette amette@kmgne.de and Audun Sandberg Audun.Sandberg@hibo.no

8. SPICOSA Training Support Pack Communicating Science : Presenting the Scenarios based on the Model Simulations to a Coastal Audience It is crucial to translate the scientific language to target-group oriented language, i.e. for non-modeller and non-scientist clientele. This does not imply that the audience is not educated! They are very knowledgeable people, often highly specialized, but they all work in different fields. Such audiences can handle coastal complexity well, but will usually have differing opinions of what are the important interrelations in the whole system Always consider the time factor! Coastal people lead busy lives and get easily bored….. Material produced by Anne Mette amette@kmgne.de and Audun Sandberg Audun.Sandberg@hibo.no

9. SPICOSA Training Support Pack Communicating Science: Presenting the Scenarios based on the Model Simulations to a Coastal Audience • Policy-making in Coastal Systems is all about handling complexity and cross-sectoral links: • To effectively portray the results of the system approach framework, it is therefore imperative that we present our findings in such a way that they are: • Able to catch the whole complexity of the coastal system • Not made so complicated that the audience cannot understand them or reject them as useless • Not made so simple that the audience feel patronised by them and interpret them as disrespect of their stakes • Comprehensive enough to permit the audience to understand fully the scenarios and make informed decisions / go informed into deliberation process Material produced by Anne Mette amette@kmgne.de and Audun Sandberg Audun.Sandberg@hibo.no

10. SPICOSA Training Support Pack How to structure a Scenario Presentation: • An opening and introduction part where the objectives of the meeting are explained, the process of the prior steps is briefly recapitulated, the usefulness (and limits) of working with scenarios are explained, and a general explanation of uncertainties and assumptions is given. • ! Remember that the whole process that has been undergone with stakeholder groups and their members must be kept transparent at all times! Material produced by Anne Mette amette@kmgne.de and Audun Sandberg Audun.Sandberg@hibo.no

11. SPICOSA Training Support Pack How to structure a Scenario Presentation: • II. The presentation of the scenarios which includes: • The description of the policy issue/ option on which the scenario is based • The explanation of the assumptions on which the scenario and the different parts of the model are based • A sequence of presenting the modelling results (cfr. Forthcoming Output step guidelines) • III. A summarizing comparison of the presented scenarios will then lead to a wrap-up of the presentation before the deliberation or policy consultation starts Material produced by Anne Mette amette@kmgne.de and Audun Sandberg Audun.Sandberg@hibo.no

12. SPICOSA Training Support Pack Further important things to keep in mind • It is advisable to have a professional facilitator or science communication expert on the team before and during such meetings • and it is desirable to involve social scientists to attend these output encounters with the stakeholders and policy makers to better understand “what is going on here” • Keep in mind that the science – policy integration process is an ongoing loop…........… • And that the outcome of such a process is fundamentally uncertain – the future is open ! Material produced by Anne Mette amette@kmgne.de and Audun Sandberg Audun.Sandberg@hibo.no

13. SPICOSA Training Support Pack Finally, keep this in mind: • Working with scenarios implies to work with possible - or likely - futures •  still, there are no certainties about those futures, there are no final solutions! • Scientist support to policy makers and policy-making processes by sharing their current knowledge, (SPICOSA) • - but they do not “know” how • the future will look like ! • Neither does this fellow: Material produced by Anne Mette amette@kmgne.de and Audun Sandberg Audun.Sandberg@hibo.no

14. WEDNESDAY MOCK-UP SESSION • Pick one of your models, i.e. one SSA scenario • In very understandable and few words explain: • a) what is the policy issue ?b) what is the policy option underlying the scenario? c) what are the assumptions and uncertainties?d) what are the results/outcomes with regard to the issue and option and with regard to THE LIVES of the stakeholders and policy makers • You can of course also pick two scenarios and compare them. • Or try to do it for two different stakeholder groups: e.g. fishermen and environmental manager or a tourist and a sewage plant owner or or or.... • The text shall not be more than 1 page. • It can include some bar chart or other visualization.