Capital Budgeting MBA Fellows Corporate Finance Learning Module Part I
Topic Outline • Capital Budgeting • Project Classifications • Capital Budgeting Decision Criteria • Reinvestment Assumptions • Post Audit • Replacement Chain Approach
Estimating Cash Flows • After-tax cash flows not accounting profits are the basis for evaluating projects. • Incremental Cash Flows - the difference between the cash flows to the firm with the project compared to the cash flows to the firm without adopting the project.
Incremental Cash Flows • Indirect costs such as: increases in cash balances, receivables, and inventory necessitated by the project should included. • Sunk Costs - not included because they have already occurred and are not affected by the current decision.
Opportunity Costs • Used to measure resources used in the project. • Opportunity cost of resources are the cash flows they would generate if not used in the project under consideration.
Initial Cash Outlay • New project costs + installation/shipping • Increases in Net Working Capital • Net proceeds from the sale of existing assets. • Taxes associated with the sale of existing assets or the purchase of a new one.
Incremental After Cash Flows • Increased revenue offset by increased expenses. • Labor and material savings • Increases in overhead • Tax Savings from an increase in depreciation expense
Terminal Cash Flows • Cash flows occurring at the end of the of a project’s life must be included in the analysis. • Recovery of new working capital - can be a cash inflow, but has not tax consequences. • Incremental Salvage Value
Incremental Salvage Value • The difference between the salvage value with the project and without the project. • Sale of Asset > Book Value: Gain/Taxes due. • Sale of Asset < Book Value: Loss/Tax savings. • Sale of Asset=Book Value: No taxes
Salvage Value & Taxes • Gain - taxes as operating income, with taxes due equal to the marginal tax rate times the amount of the gain. • Loss - treated as an operating lost to offset operating income. The tax savings is the marginal tax rate times the amount of the loss.
Interest Charges • Not considered in estimating project’s cash flows so that the project’s value can be considered independent of the method of financing. • The cost of capital (required rate of return) used to discount the project’s cash flows includes these costs.
Depreciation - MACRS • Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System (MACRS). • Depreciable base - not adjusted for salvage value: = Cost + Installation/shipping Costs
Summary of After-tax Cash Flows • Initial Outlay • Incremental Cash Flows Over the Project’s Life • Terminal Cash Flows
Capital Budgeting • The process of planning for the purchase of long-term assets whose cash flows are expected to continue beyond one year. • Capital Expenditures - cash outlays which are expected to generate future cash benefits (cash inflows).
Capital Budgeting Projects • Replacement/maintenance of fixed assets. • Expansion of existing products or markets. • Expansion into new products or markets. • Research Development • Investments in education and training. • Cost reduction projects.
Capital Budgeting Process • Generating Capital Investment Proposals • Estimating cash flows • Evaluating alternatives and selecting projects to be implemented. • Reviewing and auditing prior investment decisions.
Capital Budgeting Decision Rules • Payback Period • Discounted Payback Period • Net Present Value (NPV) • Internal Rate of Return (IRR) • Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR) • Profitability Index
Payback Period • The expected number of years it takes to recover a project’s costs, or • The expected number of years required for the cumulative net cash flows from a project to equal the initial cash outlay. PB = Yr before Recovery + Unrecovered Cost Start of Yr. Cash Flow During Year
Payback for Project L(Long: Most CFs in out years) 2.4 0 1 2 3 CFt -100 10 60 100 80 Cumulative -100 -90 -30 0 50 PaybackL = 2 + 30/80 = 2.375 years
Project S (Short: CFs come quickly) 1 1.6 2 0 3 CFt -100 70 100 50 20 -100 -30 0 20 40 Cumulative PaybackS = 1 + 30/50 = 1.6 years
Strengths of Payback: 1. Provides an indication of a project’s risk and liquidity. 2. Easy to calculate and understand. Weaknesses of Payback: 1. Ignores the TVM. 2. Ignores CFs occurring after the payback period.
Discounted Payback Period • Expected number of years required to recover the initial cash outlay from discounted cash flows • Expected cash flows are discounted at the project’s cost of capital. • Advantages: • Easy to calculate and understand • Considers time value of money • Disadvantage: ignores the time value of money e cash flows occurring after the payback period.
Discounted Payback: Uses discounted rather than raw CFs. 2 0 1 3 10% -100 10 60 80 CFt 60.11 -100 9.09 49.59 PVCFt Cumulative - 41.32 -100 -90.91 18.79 Discounted payback 2 + 41.32/60.11 = 2.7 yrs = Recover invest. + cap. costs in 2.7 yrs.
Net Present Value (NPV) • The present value of the stream of expected future net cash inflows from a project minus the project’s initial cash outlays. NPV = PVNCF - Initial Cash Outlay NPV = - Initial Cash Outlay
NPV Decision Rule Accept project when NPV > 0 • The present value of the project’s net cash flows exceeds the project’s initial outlay. Reject project when NPV < 0 • The present value of the net cash flows is less than the initial outlay
NPV Advantages: • Accounts for the time value of a project’s cash flows over its entire life. • Easy to use and understand - Positive NPV projects increase the wealth of the firm’s owners, i.e. (maximizing shareholder wealth). • Accept/Reject Decisions are clear. Disadvantages • Requires detailed long-term forecasts of the project’s cash inflows and outflows.
EVA & NPV • NPV is equal to the PV of the project’s future EVAs. • Therefore, accepting positive NPV projects should result in a positive EVA for the company, and a positive MVA.
NPV: Sum of the PVs of inflows and outflows. Cost often is CF0 and is negative.
What’s Project L’s NPV? Project L: 0 1 2 3 10% -100.00 10 60 80 9.09 49.59 60.11 18.79 = NPVL NPVS = $19.98.
Calculator Solution Enter in CFLO for L: -100 10 60 80 10 CF0 CF1 CF2 CF3 I NPV = 18.78 = NPVL
Rationale for the NPV Method NPV = PV inflows - Cost = Net gain in wealth. Accept project if NPV > 0. Choose between mutually exclusive projects on basis of higher NPV. Adds most value.
NPV method: Which project(s) should be accepted? • If Projects S and L are mutually exclusive, accept S because: NPVs > NPVL . • If S & L are independent, accept both; NPV > 0.
Internal Rate of Return (IRR) • The discount rate which equates the PV of the net cash flows of the project with the PV of the initial investment. • Or, the discount rate which results in a NPV equal to zero. • NPV = 0 =
IRR • Disadvantages: • Requires detailed long term forecasts of the incremental benefits and costs. • Unusual cash flow patterns (inflows and outflows) can result in multiple IRRs. • Assumes cash flows over the life of the project are reinvested at the IRR.
Internal Rate of Return: IRR 0 1 2 3 CF0 CF1 CF2 CF3 Cost Inflows IRR is the discount rate that forces PV inflows = cost. This is the same as forcing NPV = 0.
NPV: Enter k, solve for NPV. IRR: Enter NPV = 0, solve for IRR.
What’s Project L’s IRR? 0 IRR = ? 1 2 3 -100.00 10 60 80 PV1 PV2 PV3 0 = NPV Enter CFs in CFLO, then press IRR: IRRL = 18.13%. IRRS = 23.56%.
N I/YR PV PMT FV Find IRR if CFs are constant: 0 1 2 3 IRR = ? -100 40 40 40 INPUTS 3 -100 40 0 9.70% OUTPUT Or, with CFLO, enter CFs and press IRR = 9.70%.
Q. How is a project’s IRR related to a bond’s YTM? A. They are the same thing. A bond’s YTM is the IRR if you invest in the bond. 0 1 2 10 IRR = ? ... -1,134.2 90 90 1,090 IRR = 7.08% (use TVM or CFLO).
Rationale for the IRR Method If IRR > WACC, then the project’s rate of return is greater than its cost-- some return is left over to boost stockholders’ returns. Example: WACC = 10%, IRR = 15%. Profitable.
Steps in Determining NPV, IRR 1. Estimate CFs (inflows & outflows). 2. Assess riskiness of CFs. 3. Determine k = WACC for project. 4. Find NPV and/or IRR. 5. Accept if NPV > 0 and/or IRR > WACC.
NPV vs. IRR • NPV assumes that the project’s cash flows are reinvested at the the cost of capital. • IRR assumes that the project’s cash flows are reinvested at the IRR. • When 2 or more mutually exclusive projects are acceptable using the IRR and NPV criteria,, and if the two criteria disagree, which is best, the NPV criteria is generally preferred.
Reinvestment Rate Assumptions • NPV assumes reinvest at k (opportunity cost of capital). • IRR assumes reinvest at IRR. • Reinvest at opportunity cost, k, is more realistic, so NPV method is best. NPV should be used to choose between mutually exclusive projects.
NPV and IRR always lead to the same accept/reject decision for independent projects: NPV ($) IRR > k and NPV > 0 Accept. k > IRR and NPV < 0. Reject. k (%) IRR
Mutually Exclusive Projects NPV k < 8.7: NPVL> NPVS , IRRS > IRRL CONFLICT L k > 8.7: NPVS> NPVL , IRRS > IRRL NO CONFLICT IRRS S % k 8.7 k IRRL
To Find the Crossover Rate 1. Find cash flow differences between the projects. See data at beginning of the case. 2. Enter these differences in CFLO register, then press IRR. Crossover rate = 8.68%, rounded to 8.7%. 3. Can subtract S from L or vice versa, but better to have first CF negative. 4. If profiles don’t cross, one project dominates the other.
Two Reasons NPV Profiles Cross 1. Size (scale) differences. Smaller project frees up funds at t = 0 for investment. The higher the opportunity cost, the more valuable these funds, so high k favors small projects. 2. Timing differences. Project with faster payback provides more CF in early years for reinvestment. If k is high, early CF especially good, NPVS > NPVL.
Modified IRR (MIRR) • Discount rate that equates the present value of the project’s cash outflows with the present value of the project’s terminal value. • Terminal Value - the sum of the future value of the project’s cash inflows compounded at the required rate of return
MIRR • Addresses the reinvestment assumption of IRR and the multiple IRR problem. • Allows the decision maker to to directly specify the appropriate reinvestment rate. • Key Assumption - all cash project inflows are invested at the required rate of return until the termination of the project.
MIRR • Terminal value - take after-tax cash inflows and find their future value at the end of the project’s life, compounding at the required rate of return. • Then calculate the PV of the project’s cash out flows, using the required rate of return. • If the initial outlay is the only cash outflow, then the initial outlay is the PV of the cash outflows. • MIRR the discount rate that equates the PV of the cash outflows with the PV of the project’s terminal value.