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Vehicle Technologies for More Sustainable Transportation

I. M. T. Vehicle Technologies for More Sustainable Transportation. John B. Heywood Sun Jae Professor of Mechanical Engineering Director, Sloan Automotive Laboratory M.I.T. An IVA Seminar on Sustainable Vehicles in Honour of His Majesty King Carl XVI Gustaf’s 60th Birthday

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Vehicle Technologies for More Sustainable Transportation

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  1. I M T Vehicle Technologies for More Sustainable Transportation John B. Heywood Sun Jae Professor of Mechanical Engineering Director, Sloan Automotive Laboratory M.I.T. An IVA Seminar on Sustainable Vehicles in Honour of His Majesty King Carl XVI Gustaf’s 60th Birthday Stockholm, October 4, 2006

  2. WBCSD Sustainability Report: Mobility 2030 Seven major transportation challenges: Transportation-related air pollutants and health Transportation GHG emissions and sustainability Reduce vehicle-related deaths and injuries Reduce transport-related noise Mitigate congestion Provide better mobility for the developing world Preserve and enhance mobility opportunities for all 2 10-04-06

  3. Projected total stock of light-duty vehicles by region Source: Mobility 2030, World Business Council for Sustainable Development Sustainability Project, 2004 3 10-04-06

  4. Gigatonnes CO2 Equivalent GHG Emissions/Year Source: Mobility 2030, World Business Council for Sustainable Development Sustainability Project, 2004 4 10-04-06

  5. “We Like our Transportation Systems” 5 10-04-06

  6. Current U.S. Transportation Energy Situation Transportation in U.S. consumes about 30% of our primary energy use. Personal transportation uses 60% of this energy, aircraft 10%, freight about 30%. Scale is vast (U.S. light-duty vehicles use 550 billion liters gasoline per year); growth rates are substantial. Dominated by internal combustion engines (land) and gas turbines (air), and petroleum-based fuels. Growing concerns over national security, economic, and greenhouse gas/climate change, issues. 6 10-04-06

  7. Vehicle Technology and Fuels: Last 25 Years Steady improvements in gasoline engine performance, efficiency, weight: about 1% per year. Development of efficient, high-performing, high-speed diesel engines in cars in Europe Diesel engine emissions (trucks and cars) have been reduced but are still too high. Cheap fuel in U.S. has discouraged diesel growth in cars and light trucks. Engine and transmission improvements (some 30%) used to improve performance, increase size (and weight): fleet fuel consumption remained constant. 7 10-04-06

  8. Modern High Performance Gasoline Engine General Motors Ecotech 2-liter, turbocharged, direct-injection, gasoline engine (photo: NY Times Magazine). 8 10-04-06

  9. Examples of Future Engine Improvements • Reduced engine friction 2. Controlled autoignition combustion http://media.popularmechanics.com/images/HCCI_25345701.jpg 9 10-04-06

  10. Important Technology Paths Forward • Evolutionary Improvements • More efficient engines: Gasoline, diesel, hybrid • More efficient transmissions • Reductions in vehicle weight, drag, accessories • Alternative Fuels • Fuels from oil sands, heavy oil, GTL, oil shale, coal • Large-scale production of biofuels • More Radical Transitions • New vehicle concepts: much lighter, smaller • Fuel cell propulsion systems and hydrogen • Electric vehicles and electricity 10 10-04-06

  11. Fuel Consumption Comparison: Current 2.5-Liter Camry and Future Equivalent Models 11 10-04-06

  12. Summary of Vehicle Technology Options • Mainstream gasoline engines, transmissions, vehicles can be steadily improved over time to give a 35% fuel consumption reduction in new vehicles in about 20 years, at an extra cost per vehicle of $500-1000, at constant performance and size. • Hybrids can improve on this by 20-30 percent, at an additional cost of a few thousand dollars. • Prospects for the diesel in the U.S., attractive from a fuel consumption and CO2 perspective, are uncertain due to the extremely stringent U.S. NOx and particulate standards, low U.S. fuel costs, and higher initial cost. 12 10-04-06

  13. Technology Options: Summary (Continued) - • Fuel cell propulsion systems would result in more efficient vehicles than ICE-based technology. BUT the energy lost and CO2 emissions released in the near term by producing hydrogen are significant and result in no significant overall benefit. • Another option is advanced battery electric vehicles using electricity (maybe as a plug-in hybrid). • If we need a very low CO2 emission transportation system in the longer term (~ 50 years), then fuel cells and hydrogen and advanced batteries and electricity, combined with light-weight vehicles are potential low CO2 options. 13 10-04-06

  14. 10 12 15 20 25 30 40 50 Vehicle Weight-Fuel Consumption Relationship Data source: Ward’s Automotive Fuel economy (mpg) Fuel consumption (L/100km) Curb weight (kg) 14 10-04-06

  15. U.S. Fleet Fuel Savings Potential: Weight Reduction Every 10% of weight shed by 2025 will reduce fleet fuel use in 2025 by approximately 5%. 15 10-04-06

  16. Vehicle Performance: How High? Acceleration times: 0 - 60 miles/hr (0 - 100 km/hr) Toyota Camry: 1998 (4 cyl) 11 sec 2005 (4 cyl) 9.2 sec 2005 (6 cyl) 7.8 sec 2030 (4 cyl) 6.4 sec Vehicle fuel consumption penalty is significant. More aggressive driving results (safety, fuel consumption issues). Competitive marketplace feeds auto company performance competition. 16 10-04-06

  17. Necessary Steps for New Technology Impact Technology must become market competitive in overall vehicle performance, convenience, and cost Then technology must penetrate across new vehicle production to significant (more than one-third) level Then need substantial in-use fleet penetration; more than one-third mileage driven 10-04-06 17

  18. Time Scales for Significant U.S. Fleet Impact 10-04-06 18

  19. Achieving a 5% Reduction in U.S. Fleet Fuel and GHG 19 10-04-06

  20. Market Share of Advanced Vehicle and Fuel Technologies to achieve a 5% Reduction in U.S. Fuel Use and Carbon Emissions 20 10-04-06

  21. U.S. Light-Duty Fleet Gasoline Consumption Projections 21 10-04-06

  22. Summary of Options and Issues Improved engine and light-duty vehicle technology could reduce vehicle fuel consumption (and GHG) by one-third in 20 years. A critical issue is what fraction of technology potential goes into fuel consumption reduction, improving performance, increasing vehicle size. IC engine/battery hybrids could provide an additional 20 - 30% improvement, at an additional cost of a few thousand dollars. Diesel benefits and costs fall between gasoline engines and gasoline electric hybrids. 22 10-04-06

  23. Summary of Options and Issues - Continued 5. Market demand and auto company competition drive ever-escalating vehicle performance which significantly impacts fuel consumption gains. 6. The biggest reductions in fleet fuel consumption over the next 25 years are likely to come from steadily improving high volume production engine and vehicle technology. 7. Substantive reductions in vehicle fuel consumption will require technology improvements and changes in consumer behavior: fiscal and regulatory measures will be needed. 23 10-4-06

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