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Nuclear Energy – A Radiant Future?

Nuclear Energy – A Radiant Future?. Lutz Mez Environmental Policy Research Centre Freie Universität Berlin. 2nd Strategy Seminar: Resources and Climate Change, Berlin, February 28-29, 2008. Outline. Nuclear power - a marginal energy source Nuclear power - a safe energy source?

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Nuclear Energy – A Radiant Future?

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  1. Nuclear Energy – A Radiant Future? Lutz Mez Environmental Policy Research Centre Freie Universität Berlin 2nd Strategy Seminar: Resources and Climate Change, Berlin, February 28-29, 2008

  2. Outline • Nuclear power - a marginal energy source • Nuclear power - a safe energy source? • Nuclear proliferation • Nuclear terrorism • Economics of nuclear power • Lack of near-term prospects • Availability of Uranium • Legacy and waste disposal • Low public acceptance • Combat climate change with nuclear power? 2nd Strategy Seminar: Resources and Climate Change, Berlin, February 28-29, 2008

  3. Total Primary Energy Supply of the World Source: IEA 2007 2nd Strategy Seminar: Resources and Climate Change, Berlin, February 28-29, 2008

  4. Core meltdown & catastrophes in nuclear facilities • Chalk River (1952) • Windscale (1957) • Kyschtym (1957) • Idaho Falls (1961) • Lagoona Beach (1966) • Lucens (1969) • Greifswald (1975) • Harrisburg (1979) • Tschernobyl (1986) • Tokai Mura (1999) 2nd Strategy Seminar: Resources and Climate Change, Berlin, February 28-29, 2008

  5. NPP Kashiwasaki after the earthquake 2nd Strategy Seminar: Resources and Climate Change, Berlin, February 28-29, 2008

  6. Nuclear proliferation 2nd Strategy Seminar: Resources and Climate Change, Berlin, February 28-29, 2008

  7. Nuclear Terrorism - Problems • Useable plans for nuclear weapons are in the public domain and easily obtainable • If terrorists obtained sufficient fissile materials, it would be relatively easy for them to construct a nuclear weapon • There is a constant flow of smuggled nuclear materials, including significant amounts of weapons-grade fissile materials, from the states of the former Soviet Union (FSU) • “Loose” nuclear weapons, including the infamous ‘suitcase nukes’, have been, or may at any time be, smuggled out of the FSU and into the hands of terrorists or rogue states • Radiological dispersal devices, or ‘dirty bombs’, would have to be built abroad, probably in the FSU or Middle East, and smuggled into the United States • The security around North American reactors has been updated since September 11, 2001, and is designed to protect against all reasonably foreseeable terrorist threats 2nd Strategy Seminar: Resources and Climate Change, Berlin, February 28-29, 2008

  8. Nuclear Terrorism • Theft or sabotage of things nuclear materials for demonstration purposes • Attack on a nuclear reactor or other facility to spread alarm • Capture of a nuclear reactor for blackmail • Environmental contamination – of a city water supply, for example – with radioactive material • Sabotage of a reactor, storage dump, or other nuclear facility short of meltdown • A credible, widely-publicised nuclear threat that proves to be a hoax • Detonation of an RDD • Detonation of a low-yield home-made fission device or ‘fizzle bomb’ • Damage to a nuclear reactor including core meltdown, containment breach and large-scale radiation release • Detonation of a functional nuclear weapon 2nd Strategy Seminar: Resources and Climate Change, Berlin, February 28-29, 2008

  9. Specific Electricity Consumption in OECD countries 2nd Strategy Seminar: Resources and Climate Change, Berlin, February 28-29, 2008

  10. 2nd Strategy Seminar: Resources and Climate Change, Berlin, February 28-29, 2008

  11. 2nd Strategy Seminar: Resources and Climate Change, Berlin, February 28-29, 2008

  12. NPPs ordered vs. in operation World-Wide 2nd Strategy Seminar: Resources and Climate Change, Berlin, February 28-29, 2008

  13. Employment effect of nuclear phase-out in Germany 2nd Strategy Seminar: Resources and Climate Change, Berlin, February 28-29, 2008

  14. Scenario Nuclear Expansion • Basis IEA 2004 energy forecast: until 2030 world-wide primary energy consumption increases 60%, electricity consumption 100% • Assumption world-wide nuclear share in electricity increases from now 17% to 50% in 2030 (together with hydropower share ~ 2/3 = base load) • Results in 2030: • nuclear generates 6 times more power than now • share of nuclear in final energy supply increased from 2.7% to 10% > subst.15% of primary energy • Additional nuclear capacity 2,100 GW, 5.7 times more than installed at present 2nd Strategy Seminar: Resources and Climate Change, Berlin, February 28-29, 2008

  15. Uranium Resources • Secured + additional estimated reserves: 4.6 million tons = 4,600 kt • At present yearly uranium requirements: 66 kt/a • at this level reserves will last 70 years. • Scenario requirements 2030: 6x66x2/3= 260 kt/a • at that level reserves would last 18 years. • Shortage may lead to tapping of yet undiscovered and of unconventional uranium resources. • But that would lead to mining of poor rock with less than 1% uranium content, causing severe environmental problems. 2nd Strategy Seminar: Resources and Climate Change, Berlin, February 28-29, 2008

  16. Fast Breeder experience • In theory, breeders may generate up to 60 times more energy from natural uranium than present reactors. • Up till mid-seventies, commercial use of breeders seemed close. • Forecasts breeder capacity installed in 2000: • 1974 USAEC for USA: 450 GW • 1975 UKAEA for GB: 33 GW • 1978 CEA for France: 16–23 GW • 2007 world-wide operating: 2 Breeder power plants (560 MW Russia, 233 MW France). 2nd Strategy Seminar: Resources and Climate Change, Berlin, February 28-29, 2008

  17. Nuclear waste disposal 2nd Strategy Seminar: Resources and Climate Change, Berlin, February 28-29, 2008

  18. Nuclear safety 2nd Strategy Seminar: Resources and Climate Change, Berlin, February 28-29, 2008

  19. Position of the German electricity supply industry Very easy, gentlemen! With the red-green government we are a planning the long-term nuclear phase-out and with the next one, the short-term nuclear re-entry… 2nd Strategy Seminar: Resources and Climate Change, Berlin, February 28-29, 2008

  20. Also our NPPs have to go later on retirement! 2nd Strategy Seminar: Resources and Climate Change, Berlin, February 28-29, 2008

  21. 2nd Strategy Seminar: Resources and Climate Change, Berlin, February 28-29, 2008

  22. Total GHG emissions of generation technologies 2nd Strategy Seminar: Resources and Climate Change, Berlin, February 28-29, 2008

  23. CO2 emissions from nuclear over time 2nd Strategy Seminar: Resources and Climate Change, Berlin, February 28-29, 2008

  24. Thank you for your attention! PD Dr. Lutz MezEnvironmental Policy Research Centre umwelt1@zedat.fu-berlin.dehttp://www.fu-berlin.de/ffu/ 2nd Strategy Seminar: Resources and Climate Change, Berlin, February 28-29, 2008

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