MTS 2016 – 2021 Process MTS Workshop 23 May 2013

MTS 2016 – 2021 Process MTS Workshop 23 May 2013 Slide 1

Outline • MTS Process: Calendar and Deliverables; Objectives of the discussion • The scope of the MTS and relationship with other Strategic exercises • Situational analysis • Macro-environment • The Refugee profile • Agency Cost drivers (mainly staff numbers and salaries) • Income • Vision • Next steps Slide 2

Calendar, Related Strategic Processes, Scope of the MTS mts - may 2013

Calendar (1/2) STAGE 1: May – June 2013 (Consultation with senior management and external stakeholders; development of an MTS “Outline” and calendar) Situational analysis / assumptions (macro environment; refugee profile; cost drivers; income) Vision developed Calendar for MTS development STAGE 2: July 2013 – January 2014 (Programmatic/operational strategic response; deepened consultation, continued participation in related strategic planning processes, and development of a MTS “Blueprint”) Log-frame development Goals/Strategic Objectives determined. Identification of key indicators (goal/objective level) High-level implications of new vision on programmes, operations, structures. Review of partnerships Risk analysis conducted Slide 4

Calendar (2/2) STAGE 3: February – March 2014 (Validation by new CG; updating building blocks) Internal and external consultations Testing/revalidation of assumptions/ scenarios. Risk management plans developed 'Costing / Valuation' of the MTS STAGE 4: April – June 2014 (Finalization) Drafting, finalization, publication of the MTS Design operational/management reform plans for the period July 2014 – December 2015 STAGE 5: July 2014 – December 2015 (Preparation) Complete log-frame, indicators, methodology of measurement. Programmatic and Organizational Reforms Organizational reforms Biennium Implementation Plans and Budgets for 2016 - 2017 STAGE 6: 2016 - 2021 (Implementation) Slide 5

Related Strategic processes • Post 2015 Development Agenda • MDG’s still resonate as essential building blocks • Need to improve, deepen, refine: Focus on quality • Inequality must be addressed. More disaggregation of data required. • More integrated approaches. • Environmental sustainability. • More ambitious, universal and transformational development agenda required. • Need to retain measurability and clarity. • Other global processes: • UN System Wide Action Plan on Gender • UN System Wide Action Plan on Youth • National Development Plans and UNDAF • National Development Plans are important references for UNRWA. • UNRWA is a member of UNCTs, and is involved with UNDAF on issues/matters of common interest/intervention. Slide 6

MTS – what it is and what it is not Must be ambitious but not overly aspirational Must inform/guide decision-making, planning and programming Includes: Vision, Strategic Objectives, Indicators and Targets, Risk analysis, Relationship to other actors (partnerships) Includes key projects or areas for project interventions (as opposed to GF-funded). Includes commitment to Emergency Response Capacity Includes ‘emergency’ interventions where the context foresees continuation of an emergency/crisis throughout the strategic period. Excludes reference to management reforms/initiatives already underway and due for completion prior to the Strategic period Will guide adjustments to management systems to facilitate MTS implementation. Slide 7

Developing a Strategic Plan mts - may 2013

Developing a strategic plan • Four main factors to be taken into account as a basis for strategic planning: • Macro-environmental factors (political, security, economic etc) only insofar as they relate to UNRWA. • The Refugee Profile: the high-level needs of the refugees • The Cost of Operating (mainly salaries and numbers of employees) • The income we receive Slide 9

Macro-environment mts - may 2013

Macro-environment The Agency cannot create a medium-term strategy around a scenario or based on assumptions that are not considered realistic by external stakeholders. This can be a challenging and politically-sensitive task. It is important that the Agency receive the guidance of the Advisory Commission membership on arriving at an agreed and acceptable strategic planning option, with an understanding of contingencies/ adaptability based on realistic risks and opportunities. Slide 11

Macro-environment Regional Limited hope of a political solution to the plight of refugees. Region will continue to be characterized by on-going tension and conflict, requiring UNRWA to engage in different levels of human development, recovery and humanitarian activities. Challenge will remain to mobilize sufficient resources to enable UNRWA to achieve goals and targets on all three levels – human development, recovery, humanitarian. Slide 12

Macro-environment • West Bank: • Continues to experience crisis with economic, social, political, institutional and humanitarian dimensions. • The political climate not expected to change dramatically, either positively or negatively regarding the needs of the refugees or UNRWA’s operations. • High unemployment rates and food insecurity expected to continue among Palestine refugees. • Access and permit restrictions within the camps could lead to higher incidence of poverty. • Syria: • Widespread instability experienced in 2013 may be quelled during the MTS period. • The Agency’s operations will be focused on humanitarian interventions, repatriation, reconstruction/recovery interventions and eventually to a return to human development operations. • The Agency’s ability to make significant headway on programmatic reforms (apart from those focusing on improved emergency response) during the early part of the MTS period will be modest. • Should hostilities cease, developmental needs of the refugees in almost all respects will be higher than prior to the conflict. Slide 13

Macro-environment • Gaza: • Gaza remains physically and economically isolated from the West Bank and its neighbours. • An economic blockade largely in place continues to affect movement of people and goods. • This may pose challenges to poverty mitigation programming. • Lack of opportunity and experience in a young and growing population with high unemployment may have an effect on utility of Human Development activities. • The security environment continues to be characterized by periods of relative calm, punctuated with conflict. • Political engagement, and humanitarian and reconstruction assistance continue to provide some elements of stability. • Food insecurity is assumed to remain in the 40-60% range and unemployment in the 30-50% range during the planning period. • Demographic projections indicate a continued and increasing need for humanitarian assistance in the form of food and cash-for-work and other programmes. Slide 14

Macro-environment • Lebanon: • Lebanon will continue to host refugees seeking safety from the conflict in Syria for as long as it continues. • UNRWA will continue to be focused on humanitarian interventions more than on-going programmatic reforms. • UNRWA will be able to resume full programmatic interventions when the conflict in Syria ceases and Palestine Refugees from Syria can return voluntarily. • Nahr el Bared Camp (NBC): Reconstruction continues as priority – more than half of the camp will be completed prior to the MTS period. • Displaced NBC residents will continue to depend primarily on UNRWA to address their more acute relief needs. • Infrastructure and shelter needs will remain high within refugee camps. • The political landscape will continue to challenge the rights of Palestine refugees prolonging existing protection gaps. • Poverty and food insecurity amongst the refugee population will continue to be high. Slide 15

Macro-environment • Jordan: • Expected that Jordan will continue to host the largest numbers of registered Palestine refugees in UNRWA’s area of operations. • Those who live in refugee camps will remain dependent on UNRWA for human development services. • UNRWA will continue to address humanitarian interventions to those PRS who have fled from Syria, for as long as the Syrian crisis continues. • Domestic reforms will continue in an environment where tensions among communities, including Palestine Refugees, may increase. Slide 16

Summary from Day 1 More detail required of consultations to be carried out in Stage 2 (July – November) Need to better define the deliverables over the coming months – including the November AdCom(including annotated Table of Contents). Will be discussed further this afternoon. The description of the macro-environment in Jordan needs to be revised to exclude mention of domestic reforms, and to make clear that UNRWA’s services are not restricted to refugees in refugee camps. The macro-environment descriptions need to be consistent insofar as they refer to the situation vs the Agency’s operations. Slide 17

Summary from Day 1 (con‘t) Regarding the relationship of the MTS with the Agency’s emergency/humanitarian work: - MTS should deal with the Agency’s core human development programmes. - Need to include the importance of having capacity in the Agency to respond to chronic or acute emergency situations. This capacity should be built around the Agency’s strengths in humanitarian response. Mention of capacity building. - The Agency’s response in emergencies can/should be guided by principles set out in the MTS. - It must be clear that the Agency’s General Fund and core project streams should not be used to fund emergency interventions. Slide 18

Outline • MTS Process: Calendar and Deliverables; Objectives of the discussion • The scope of the MTS and relationship with other Strategic exercises • Situational analysis • Macro-environment • The Refugee profile • Agency Cost drivers (mainly staff numbers and salaries) • Income • Vision • Next steps Slide 19

Cautionary Note mts - may 2013

Forecasting the future • Cautionary note: Challenges/dangers of relying on past trends to forecast the future. • Unreliability of old statistics • Uncomparability of statistics • Past trends need to be subjected to great scrutiny and understood in detail before they can be reliable indicators of the future. Slide 21

Forecasting the future (cont.) • Examples of the difficulty of relying on the past for making future predictions: • The inclusion of Married-to-Non-Refugee (MNR)’s in 2010 (a policy change that was endorsed by the Advisory Commission) in all Fields other than Jordan resulted in a dramatic spike in new registrations. This distorts the 10 year average. • “Registered” refugee numbers are higher (some cases, like Lebanon, significantly so) than actual resident refugees. Forecasting the future by applying past percentages using the “Registered” population will give exaggerated results. • Staff numbers experienced a significant, one-off (and not-to-be-repeated), increase in 2009 largely as a result of the decision in Gaza Field to reduce average class sizes from 1 teacher : 50 students to 1 teacher : 40 students. This decision was made in response to a perceived crisis in educational quality standards and was, by and large, endorsed by all external stakeholders. • Education and Health historical figures may not be entirely accurate. The Agency is still in the process of developing and rolling-out information management systems for Health Centres and Schools. • A change in accounting standards (UNSAS to IPSAS) in 2010 – 2011 – 2012 make it impossible to compare non-staff expenditure in the period prior with the period after. Slide 22

Refugee Profile mts - may 2013

Refugee profile Slide 24

Agency Cost Drivers mts - may 2013

Agency Cost Drivers Three main drivers of cost: - Numbers of Staff employed - Cost of Staff (salaries) - Key non-staff costs Slide 26

Numbers of Staff Employed Slide 27

Workforce Trends mts - may 2013

Staff vs Refugees (cumulative growth) Slide 29

Teachers vs Refugees (cumulative growth) Slide 32

Health Staff vs Refugees (cumulative growth) Slide 35

Sanitation vs Refugees (cumulative growth) Slide 38

Projections Slide 41

Staff Salaries mts - may 2013

Staff Salaries average change of a grade 10, step 10 salary (2002-2013) . Slide 43

Percentage of Salary Increases - Agency Wide 2000-2012 Slide 47

total compensation package Salaries and Supplementary Allowance given to select levels / occupations, mainly health and sanitation services to reach comparator levels. Comment: The above demonstrates that the opportunity exists in some Fields for the Agency to apply new methods in the application of the existing Pay policy to not give comparable increases in salary vis – a –vis host countries while still remaining above the comparator. Source: HRD, UNRWA-Donor Compensation Briefing, 7 April 2013 Slide 48

education cost drivers Slide 49 of 16

health cost drivers COMMENT: Reduction resulting, in part, from the purchase of cheaper medications from Syrian sources Slide 50 of 16

MTS 2016 – 2021 Process MTS Workshop 23 May 2013