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Renewable Energy - the view of independent producers

Renewable Energy - the view of independent producers. Dr. Doerte Fouquet, representing EREF asbl European Renewable Energies Federation. 2 o C. Reasons for Concern – “The Red Embers”. Source: Smith et al. PNAS, 2009. Current RES Deployment Source Ren 21. State of Affairs.

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Renewable Energy - the view of independent producers

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  1. Renewable Energy- the view of independent producers Dr. Doerte Fouquet, representing EREF asbl European Renewable Energies Federation

  2. 2 oC Reasons for Concern – “The Red Embers” Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, Energiedag 2010 Source: Smith et al. PNAS, 2009

  3. Current RES DeploymentSource Ren 21 Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, Energiedag 2010

  4. State of Affairs • In 2005, renewable energy sources accounted for 13% of the world’s primary energy demand. Biomass, which is mostly used for heating, is the main renewable energy source. • The share of renewable energy in electricity generation was 18%. The contribution of renewables to primary energy demand for heat supply was around 24%. • About 80% of primary energy supply today still comes from fossil fuels, and 6% from nuclear power Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, Energiedag 2010

  5. Net Increase/Decrease of capacity in electricity in EU 2000-2007 (in MW) Source: Prioritising Wind Energy Research Strategic Agenda, EWEA; Platts Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, Energiedag 2010

  6. Global developments savingsand clean energy technologies Dr. Dörte Fouquet, The European Renewables Energies Federation (EREF)

  7. ConnectionsSource: Thomas B. Johansson 2010

  8. The new EU RES Directive a good tool • Sets mandatory minimum national targets for renewable energy shares, including 10% biofuels share in transport, in 2020 • Requires National Action Plans, • Gives flexibility for Member States to reach part of their target through • Statistical transfer • Joint projects between Member States and third countries with existing or planned interconnector capacity (under certain conditions and provided RES energy reaches the EU) ) • Encourages joint Support mechanisms between MS • Sets clear rules fordisclosure qualityof Guarantees of origin • Requires reduction of administrative and regulatory barriers, improvements in provision of information and training and improves renewables’ access to the electricity grid • Creates a sustainability regime for biofuels Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, Energiedag 2010

  9. Europe’s new Commitment • 20% GHG reduction compared to 1990 • Independent commitment • 30% GHG reduction compared to 1990 • In context of international agreement • 20% renewables share of final energy consumption • 10% bioenergy in transport, with • production being sustainable • second generation biofuels commercially available • Electricity from RES Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, Energiedag 2010

  10. Mandatory EU RE TargetsSource JRC Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, April 2010

  11. EU 27’s homework • National overall targets for the share of energy from renewable sources in gross final consumption of energy in 2020* (ANNEX I of RES Directive) 2005 (1) 2020 (2) 2005 2020 Belgium 2,2 % 13% Lithuania 15,0 % 23% Bulgaria 9,4 % 16% Luxembourg 0,9 % 11% Czech Republic 6,1 % 13% Hungary 4,3 % 13% Denmark 17,0 % 30% Malta 0,0 % 10% Germany 5,8 % 18% The Netherlands 2,4 % 14% Estonia 18,0 % 25% Austria 23,3 % 34% Ireland 3,1 % 16% Poland 7,2 % 15% Greece 6,9 % 18% Portugal 20,5 % 31% Spain 8,7 % 20% Romania 17,8 % 24% France 10,3 % 23% Slovenia 16,0 % 25% Italy 5,2 % 17% Slovak Republic 6,7 % 14% Cyprus 2,9 % 13% Finland 28,5 % 38% Latvia 32,6 % 40% Sweden 39,8 % 49% United Kingdom 1,3 % 15% (1) Share of energy from renewable sources in gross final consumption of energy, • (2) Target for share of energy from renewable sources in gross final consumption of energy Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, Energiedag 2010

  12. Pre-Conditions for 3 * 20 • Change in Paradigm: individual responsibility for own energy supply, as local and decentralised as possible • Households and private sector in general should primarily produce their own heat and electricity from RES sources in an efficient environment • Combination with drastic change in consumption pattern and increase in efficiency • Political commitment beyond ideologies and beyound short term thinking to go for strong national efficiency and RES policies • Clear instruments, targets for rapid uptake and enforcement • Change from primarily energy generating companies to energy service providing companies • High level of market penetration by Independent RES Power Production • Swift abatement of open and hidden harmful subsidies to incumbent industry • As long as these conditions are not really met – counterbalance through state policies is necessity Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, Energiedag 2010

  13. Timing for Reporting • National action plans (due by 30 June 2010) • Member States offers and requests for statistical transfers/joint projects and the details of those exchanges that occur Member States' progress reports (first due by December 2011) • The Commission's progress reports (first due by December 2012). Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, Energiedag 2010

  14. Forecast to 2020 • In accordance with Article 4(2) and (3) of Directive 2009/28/EC on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources (RE Directive): • Member States shall notify their national renewable energy action plans to the Commission by 30 June 2010. • Each Member State shall publish and notify to the Commission, six months before its national renewable energy action plan is due, a forecast document indicating: • a) its estimated excess production of energy from renewable sources (compared to the indicative trajectory) which could be transferred to other Member States in accordance with Articles 6 to 11, as well as its estimated potential for joint projects, until 2020; • and • b) its estimated demand for energy from renewable sources to be satisfied by means other than domestic production until 2020.' Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, Energiedag 2010

  15. Sweden’s Ambition • The proportion of energy from renewable sources in the gross final consumption of energy is forecast to be 50.2% in 2020, which may be compared with the binding national target of 49% in 2020. Sweden will have a forecast excess of approx. 1.2 percentage points in 2020. • (source :Swedish Forecast Report to EC Commission, 2009) Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, Energiedag 2010

  16. Example: Finland • “We would reply as follows to the points under Article 4(3) of Directive 2009/28/EC: • a) Finland does not produce an excess of renewable energy which could be transferred to other Member States in accordance with Articles 6 to 11; and • b) Finland is capable of meeting its renewable-energy objectives itself, without using the cooperation mechanisms between Member States which are provided for in the Directive.” • (Source: Finnish Forecast Report) Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, Energiedag 2010

  17. Finland and Recession • “One of the aims of the strategy is to halt and reverse the growth in energy consumption. A further aim is to increase the share of enewableenergy to 38% by 2020, in line with the obligation under the Renewable Energy Directive. This is a challenging obligation, and meeting it will primarily require energy consumption to be reduced.” (Forecast Document) Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, Energiedag 2010

  18. But: the fiddling starts • Finland : Government want to make its RES target reaching depending from new nuclear build • Czech Republic: Grid access obstacles increasing – Freezing of grid access permits • Cost for balancing increasingly burdened on investor (e.g. Bulgaria)

  19. Can we do better than the 2020 targets? Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, Energiedag 2010

  20. Share of Renewable Energies in Total Final Energy Consumption – 28 instead of 18% in 2020 Total Consumption Renewable Energy Share RE Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, Energiedag 2010

  21. Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, Energiedag 2010

  22. Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, Energiedag 2010

  23. Industry forecast: >500,000 jobs in 2020 Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, Energiedag 2010

  24. The way to 100 % RES – the view of the RES industry and stakeholders • The electricity sector will be the pioneer of renewable energy utilisation. • By 2050, around 77% of electricity will be produced from renewable energy sources (including large hydro). A capacity of 9,100 GW will produce 28,600 TWh/a of renewable electricity in 2050. • In the heat supply sector, the contribution of renewables will increase to 70% by 2050. Fossil fuels will be increasingly replaced by more efficient modern technologies, in particular biomass, solar collectors and geothermal. • Before sustainable bio fuels are introduced in the transport sector, the existing large efficiency potentials have to be exploited. As biomass is mainly committed to stationary applications, the production of bio fuels is limited by the availability of sustainable raw materials. Electric vehicles powered by renewable energy sources, will play an increasingly important role from 2020 onwards. • By 2050, 56% of primary energy demand will be covered by renewable energy sources. Global Energy ®evolution 2009 Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, Energiedag 2010

  25. Scenario: Greenpeace 100 % EE electricity for Germany by 2050 Renewables in general: 100% in electricity; of which:Wind onshore: 19% Offshore Wind: 35% Geothermal: 20% Solar PV: 11% Biomass: 10% Hydro: 5% (source: Greenpeacewww.greenpeace.de/fileadmin/gpd/user_upload/themen/klima/Klimaschutz_PlanB.pdf) (update: 2009)  Rainer Hinrichs - Rahlwes, Vice President EREF, April 2010

  26. Price ExperienceSource: JRC 2009 Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, Energiedag 2010

  27. Be efficient ! Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, Energiedag 2010

  28. Energy Efficiency – the hidden beauty • Development pathway for the exploitation of energy efficiency potential, focused on current best practice as well as technologies available in the future. • The EREC/GREENPEACE Energy [R]evolution Scenario: worldwide final energy demand can be reduced by 38% in 2050 compared to the IEA Reference Scenario. • The energy supply scenarios adopted in this report, which extend beyond and enhance projections made by the International Energy Agency, have been calculated using the MESAP/PlaNet simulation model. The demand side projection to take into account the future potential for energy efficiency measures. Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, Energiedag 2010

  29. Energy Efficiency is key • Exploitation of the existing large energy efficiency potentials will ensure that primary energy demand increases only slightly – from the current global 474,900 PJ/a (2005) to 480,860 PJ/a in 2050, compared to 867,700 PJ/a • Condition sine qua non for achieving a significant share of renewable energy sources in the overall energy supply system, for compensating the phasing out of nuclear energy and for drastic reducing the consumption of fossil fuels globally. • Greenpeace Scenario Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, Energiedag 2010

  30. Clever Energy management is key • The grid integration of huge percentages of fluctuating sources such as wind and solar photovoltaic needs further scientific and technical research. • Excellent regional meteorological data • Storage and balancing capacity on all levels of energy path (batteries, pump storage, hydro and biogas as storage, cavern use, transport means and buildings as storage hubs, IT for rapid balancing) Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, Energiedag 2010

  31. Good policies are key • Phase out all subsidies for fossil fuels and nuclear energy. • Internalise the external (social and environmental) costs of energy production • Mandate strict efficiency standards for all energy consuming appliances, buildings and vehicles. • Establish legally binding targets for renewable energy and combined heat and power generation. • Reform the electricity markets by guaranteeing priority access to the grid for renewable power generators. • Provide defined and stable returns for investors, e.g by well designed feed-in tariff programmes. • better labelling and disclosure mechanisms to provide more environmental product information. • Increase research and development budgets for renewable energy and energy efficiency. Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, Energiedag 2010

  32. A word on RES pricing • Current discussion of FiT system and its rates for PV in Germany shows a problematic picture: • As much as Independent power producer applaud rapid decrease in technology prices there is a fine line to short sighted populist move by politicians which endangers the validity of the whole RES sector • It seems it is “en vogue” to go after RES but keep on being blind on topics such as windfall profits and reserve funds for future dismantling of Nuclear Power plants which give enormous extra cash to the incumbent industry Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, April 2010

  33. Dr. Doerte Fouquet, Director EREF, Energiedag 2010 • Thank you for your attention ! • Dr. Dörte Fouquet • fouquet@kuhbier.com • www.eref-europe.org

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