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Preparing for Success: NATO Code of Best Practice for C2 Assessment

This comprehensive guide authored by David S. Alberts from OASD/NI2 delves into problem formulation, solution strategies, human and organizational issues, risks, and uncertainties in C2 assessments. It covers measures of merit, scenarios, methods, tools, and data to help you assess, manage, and mitigate risks effectively. Understand the definitions of risk and uncertainty, types of risks, and uncertainties, and learn how to tackle them in decision-making processes. Gain insights into dealing with uncertainties in various aspects of assessments, such as data sources, stakeholder perceptions, and decision-making techniques. Discover how to reduce uncertainties, mitigate risks, and communicate effectively to ensure successful outcomes in C2 assessments.

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Preparing for Success: NATO Code of Best Practice for C2 Assessment

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  1. Prepare for Success NATO Code of Best Practice (COBP) for C2 Assessment 3 Problem Formulation Sponsor Problem 4 Solution Strategy 6 Human & Organisational Issues Risk and Uncertainty Chapter 10 David S. Alberts Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Networks and Information Integration (OASD/NI2) 5 Measures of Merit (MoM) 7 Scenarios 8 Methods & Tools Products 11 9 Data 10 Assess Risk

  2. Risk and Uncertainty Prepare for Success 3 Problem Problem Formulation Formulation Sponsor Sponsor Problem Problem 4 Solution Solution Strategy Strategy 6 Human & Human & Organizational Organizational Issues Issues 5 Measures of Measures of 7 Scenarios Scenarios Merit ( MoM ) Merit ( MoM ) 8 Methods Models & Tools & Tools 11 9 Products Products Data Data 10 Assess Assess Risk Risk

  3. Agenda • Definitions of Risk and Uncertainty • Types of Risks and Uncertainties • Dealing with Risk and Uncertainty

  4. Definitions • Risk • Possibility of suffering a loss • Actual • Opportunity • Uncertainty • Inability to determine • Value of a variable • A future state • Probability • Unknowns All risks involve uncertainties

  5. Types of Risks and Uncertainties • Assessment • Related to the conduct of the assessment • Decision or Operational • Related to taking decision(s) or action(s) that the assessment is meant to inform Not all risks and/or uncertainties can be eliminated

  6. Examples of Uncertainties in C2 Assessments • The “right” question • Assumptions • Appropriate set of scenarios • Sources of data • Correctness of data • Limits of models and simulations • Appropriate solution approaches • Stakeholder perceptions and predispositions • Schedule and cost • And lots more………………..

  7. C2 and Decisionmaking • Decisionmaking is at the heart of C2 • Individual, team, organizational, adversarial, etc. • We lack an adequate understanding of decisionmaking and related processes • Perceptions • Styles • Cultural influences • Relationships to information quality and misinformation • These factors are inadequately represented in M&S tools Ignoring these only increases risks and/or uncertainties

  8. Assessment Risks and Uncertainties • Assessments should be judged by their ability to inform: that is by reduction in risk and uncertainty • Identifying key considerations • Fact finding • Analysis • Hence, the major assessment risk is failing to do so: a failure to inform • Failure to deliver the assessment in a timely manner • Missing key considerations • Inadequate fact finding • Poor or incomplete analysis • Failure to properly communicate findings and conclusions

  9. Decision/Action Risks andUncertainties • Decision/Actions are attended by risks associated with • Fog and friction of war (and operations other than war) • Adversary actions or reactions • Environment (including other parties) • Unintended consequences • Hence, major decision/action risk include • Misunderstanding of situation (including command intent) • Failure to consider full range of options • Failure to understand the full range of (cascading) effects associated with various options • Failure to make a decision / take an action at the appropriate time

  10. Dealing with Risks and Uncertainties • Reducing Uncertainties • Identify and treat uncertainties explicitly • Focus on the most consequential of the uncertainties • Seek to be informed from multiple sources • Perform sensitivity analyses • Mitigating Risks • Identify and treat risks explicitly • Scrub assumptions • Following the COBP will help reduce risks • Risk analyses • Risk register • Develop contingencies • Develop agility • Contingency planning Communicating risks anduncertainties is essential

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