Ecological Footprint

2. Something to chew on Food could make or break our worldGerard Wedderburn-BisshopExecutive Director, World Preservation Foundation gerard@worldpreservationfoundation.orgLefkothea PavlidisSenior Scientist, World Preservation Foundation lefkothea@worldpreservationfoundation.org

3. Ecological Footprint The earth now needs 1.5 years to generate what we use in a year (WWF Living Planet Report, 2011)

4. Ecological Footprint

5. Food: the problem and the solution

6. Planetary Boundaries Already Exceeded: Biodiversity loss Climate change Nitrogen cycle imbalance (Copenhagen Resilience Centre)

7. Biodiversity Loss NEAA, 2010

8. Biodiversity Loss A "No Meat Diet" would have the single greatest benefit, preventing over 60 percent of biodiversity loss. (NEAA, 2010)

9. Planetary Boundaries Nitrogen

10. Vitousek (1994) Nitrogen Pollution • 65% of N2O from animal agriculture • Reactive nitrogen a strong polluter – leads to dead zones

11. Planetary Boundaries Climate Change

12. Climate Chaos No need to model • Hotter, drier droughts • More evaporation (4% more water vapour) • More extreme weather • 1 million climate refugees

13. Livestock & Climate Change 30.6% of Australia’s greenhouse emissions is from livestock production CSIRO/Uni of Sydney Balancing Act, 2005

14. Climate Change • BZE Land Use Plan • Agriculture 41-54% of Australian emissions • Animal agriculture 37-52% of Australian emissions

15. Climate Change • Animal agriculture the greatest source of • Methane • Nitrous oxide • Carbon monoxide • NMVOCs

16. Short term climate fix

17. Short lived climate forcers • 3-4oC warming will happen, even if CO2 emissions cease • Warming can be <2oC by 2050 if short-lived emissions are reduced (UNEP & WMO, 2011).

18. Short Lived Climate Forcers Black Carbon Methane (CH4) Ground Level Ozone (O3) Warming: 20% of that of CO2 GWP20 of BC : 1600 GWP20 of CH4 : 72 (International Council on Clean Transportation, June 2009) (IPCC 4th Assessment Report Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis) (Wallack and Ramanathan, Sep/Oct 2009)

19. Black Carbon • 40% of Black Carbon – from pasture fires and bushfires. • 90% of open fires deliberately lit NASA 10-day Global Fire Map: 10-19 May 2012

20. Methane Human caused Methane emissions

22. Ground level Ozone Ground level ozone warms 20% of CO2 O3 best controlled by reducing methane (Wallack and Ramanathan 2009), (Harvard University, the Argonne National Laboratory, and EPA (USA), 2002) Image Source: NASA - Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer

23. Short Lived Climate Forcers

24. Long term climate fix

25. Lowest Cost Climate Fix Trees, grass & soil not technology

26. Lowest Cost Climate Fix • Netherlands EIA Mitigation report 2009 • Low meat diet – 50% saving • Animal free (vegan) diet – 80% saving • Retire all grazing lands and feed crops (30% of land surface)

27. Lowest Cost Climate Fix • 51% of Africa is high rainfall savannah (>780mm) • Would return to forest if burning stopped (Sankaran et al, 2005)

28. Planetary Boundaries Deforestation

29. Deforestation - 13 million ha/year (24 ha/minute) - >90% for agriculture (80% for pasture/feed crops) - 25-30% of global GHGs (UNFAO, 2006) Graphs Source: Rhett A. Butler / mongabay.com from F AOSTATS Reforestation: - Opportunity to convert a major emission source into a major sink, particularly in the tropics and sub-tropics through natural re-growth

30. Deforestation in Brazil • Brazil has 27% of global deforestation • 65-70% for cattle ranching • 5-10% for large scale crops (mostly soy for feedlots) 70% of global agricultural land is used for livestock (UNFAO, 2006) – much of the trees cleared and feed crops for livestock have undergone repeated burning

31. Deforestation and Fire Fire is used to retard tree re-growth & encourage pasture growth MODIS fire map 08/19/2010 to 08/28/2010 MODIS fire map 11/17/2010 to 11/26/2010

32. Land Degradation “A substantial reduction of [climate/environmental] impacts would only be possible with a substantial worldwide diet change, away from animal products.” UNEP 2010

33. Future Food

34. Crunch time • Population crisis • Climate crisis • Biodiversity crisis • Soil/nutrient crisis • Water crisis • Peak oil • Peak land “The coming famine is a planetary emergency.”

35. Crunch time “The traditional cookbook is a hymnal to an age of indulgence that is costing us the earth.” “..the western diet kills more than half its consumers through heart disease, cancer, stroke, and diabetes should be sufficient warning of its inherent risks.” “The twenty-first century diet will be more healthful all round”

36. Population

37. Feeding 64 Billion • 7 billion people • 64 billion livestock each year • Western diet – 2,000 animals, 100,000 eggs eaten in a lifetime • Livestock outweigh wildlife by 18:1

38. Feeding 64 billion

39. Water lost 6x more water to grow a kilogram of protein from animal sources 20x more water to grow calories from beef than from grain or potatoes

40. Water lost

41. Protein Lost • 75% - 95% of protein is lost by eating meat • 70% is lost by eating eggs (Smil, 2002)

42. Land lost • Beef protein takes 200 times more land than plant protein • Milk protein takes 3 times more land (Lobell, 1981)

43. Feeding 64 Billion Without livestock to feed, we would have a 50% surplus of food (FAO, 2006)

44. Organic Farming • Organic yields match conventional • Organic yields greater in drought years • Organic builds soil organic matter - more sustainable • Organic 45% less energy • Organic 40% less greenhouse gases • Organic more profitable in USA

45. Health “It is time to tell the truth. Family history and genetic background do not cause this illness. Genes load the gun, but lifestyle pulls the trigger.” “a switch to a diet free of meat and dairy products will dramatically reduce … obesity, cancer, heart disease and diabetes.” Dr Caldwell Esselstyn

46. Vegan Nutrition

47. Vegan Nutrition “…vegetarian diets are appropriate for individuals during all stages of the life cycle, including pregnancy, lactation, infancy, childhood, and adolescence, and for athletes.” ADA, 2010

48. Future Food “A substantial reduction of impacts would only be possible with a substantial worldwide diet change, away from animal products.” UNEP 2010

50. Animal cruelty? "Every age has its massive moral blind spots. We might not see them, but our children will."  - Bono