Nominations and Campaigns

1. Nominations and Campaigns Chapter 9

2. The Presidential Campaign Calendar • The year (OR TWO) before the election – Announce intent to run • January-June of Election Year – Caucuses and Primaries • End of Summer – National Party Conventions • Fall – Debates between Candidates • November – Election • January 20th - Inauguration

3. The Nomination Game • Nomination: the official endorsement of a candidate for office by a political party • Generally, success requires momentum, money, and media attention. • Campaign Strategy: the master game plan candidates lay out to guide their electoral campaign

4. The Nomination Game • Deciding to Run • Campaigns are more physically and emotionally taxing than ever. • Other countries have short campaigns, generally less than 2 months. • American campaigns are much longer. • Whoever is elected president declares their intention to run early in the year BEFORE the election.

5. Delegates? HUH? • When you participate in a caucus or primary, you are choosing DELEGATES who will attend the convention in support of the candidate you like best. A vote for Candidate X is REALLY a vote for a delegate to attend the convention to SUPPORT Candidate X • The more delegates supporting Candidate X at the convention, the more likely he/she is to get the nomination • Primaries vs Caucuses http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_95I_1rZiIs

6. The Nomination Game • Competing for Delegates • The Caucus Road • Caucus: system for selecting delegates used in about a dozen rural states. Voters show up at a set time and attend an open meeting to show their preference for President. • Caucusing is EASY! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=racTAiemEQU • A handful of states use a caucus—open to all voters who are registered with a party. Takes more time on the part of the people. Lower turnout than for states with primaries. • The Iowa caucus is first and most important.

7. The Nomination Game • Competing for Delegates • The Primary Road • Primary: elections in which voters in a state vote for a nominee (or delegates pledged to the nominee) • Began at turn of 20th century by progressive reformers • Most delegates are chosen through primaries. • Superdelegates: party leaders who automatically get a delegate slot at the National Convention • Frontloading is the tendency of states to hold primaries early to capitalize on media attention. New Hampshire is first. • Generally primaries serve as elimination contests.

8. McGovern-Fraser Commission • Formed as a reaction to the violence at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in 1968 (anti-war party members felt they weren’t represented within the convention) • Wanted to be sure that the delegates to the DNC were really representative of the Democratic Party itself (women, minorities, etc.)

9. The Nomination Game • Competing for Delegates • Evaluating the Primary and Caucus System • Disproportionate attention to early primaries and caucuses • Prominent politicians do not run. • Money plays too big a role. • Participation in primaries and caucuses is low and unrepresentative; 20 percent vote in primaries • The system gives too much power to the media.

10. The Nomination Game • Competing for Delegates • Nomination game is an elimination contest • Goal is to win a majority of delegates’ support at the national party convention, or the supreme power within each of the parties • The convention meets every four years to nominate the party’s presidential and vice-presidential candidates. • Party platform is written. • Conventions are but a formality today (they’re really a big party!!).

11. The Nomination Game • The Convention Send-off • National conventions once provided great drama, but now are a formality, which means less TV time. • Significant rallying point for parties • Key note speaker on first day of Convention • Party platform: statement of a party’s goals and policies for next four years • Debated on the second day of the Convention • Formal nomination of president and vice-president candidates on third and fourth days

12. The Nomination Game

13. The Campaign Game • The High-Tech Media Campaign • Direct mail is used to generate support and money for the candidate • Get media attention through ad budget and “free” coverage • Emphasis on “marketing” a candidate • News stories focus more on the “horse race” than substantive policy issues

14. The Campaign Game • Organizing the Campaign • Get a campaign manager • Get a fund-raiser & campaign counsel (attorney) • Hire media and campaign consultants • Assemble staff and plan logistics • Get research staff, policy advisors, and pollsters • Get a good press secretary • Establish a website

15. The Campaign Game

16. Money and Campaigning • The Maze of Campaign Finance Reforms • Federal Election Campaign Act (1974) • Created the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to administer campaign finance laws for federal elections • Created the Presidential Election Campaign Fund ($3 voluntary donation on income tax forms) • Provided partial public financing for presidential primaries • Matching funds: Candidates who raise $5000 in at least 20 states can get donations of up to $250 matched by the federal treasury. If candidates accept this money they agree to limit what they spend on their campaigns.

17. Money and Campaigning • Federal Election Campaign Act (1974) continued • Provided full public financing for major party candidates in the general election. In 2008, this fixed amount was $85 million. Obama did not accept it and raised money in maximum amounts of $2300 per individual donor. He raised $337 million which gave him a huge edge over McCain who accepted the $85 million. • Required full disclosure of all campaign donations to the FEC listing who contributed and how much • Limited contributions per individual to $1000. The limit was raised to $2300 in 2008.

18. Money and Campaigning • The Maze of Campaign Finance Reforms • Soft Money: political contributions (not subject to contribution limits) earmarked for party-building expenses or generic party advertising • The McCain-Feingold Act (2002) banned soft money, increased amount of individual contributions, and limited “issue ads.” • This was overturned by the Supreme Court case Citizens United v. FEC (2010) which says that this was a limit on free speech. Corporations and unions can now spend as much as they like to promote their political views.

19. Money and Campaigning • 527 groups: Just known as 527s. Independent groups that seek to influence political process but are not subject to contribution restrictions because they do not directly seek election of particular candidates. • Created as a way for groups to get around the ban on soft money. Examples: Swift Boat Veterans for Truth (anti-Kerry 527) and Moveon.org (anti-Bush 527) • Swift Boat Veterans Ad

20. Money and Campaigning • The Proliferation of PACs • Political Action Committees (PACs): created by law in 1974 to allow corporations, labor unions and other interest groups to donate money to campaigns; PACs are registered with and monitored by the FEC. • As of 2008 there were 4,611 PACs. • PACs contributed over $412.8 million to congressional candidates in 2008 • PACs donate to candidates who support their issue. • PACs do not “buy” candidates, but give to candidates who support them in the first place. • All PAC donations must be carefully recorded by candidates

21. Money and Campaigning

22. Money and Campaigning • Are Campaigns Too Expensive? • Fundraising takes a lot of time. • Incumbents do worse when they spend more money because it means they need to spend more to defeat quality challengers. • The doctrine of sufficiency suggests that candidates need just “enough” money to win, not necessarily “more.” (Meg Whitman lost to Jerry Brown although she outspent him by $100 million)

23. The Impact of Campaigns • Campaigns have three effects on voters: • Reinforcement, Activation, Conversion • Several factors weaken campaigns’ impact on voters: • Selective perception: pay most attention to things we agree with • Party identification still influences voting behavior • Incumbents begin with sizeable advantage

24. Understanding Nominations and Campaigns • Are Nominations and Campaigns Too Democratic? • Campaigns are open to almost everyone. • Campaigns consume much time and money. • Campaigns promote individualism in American politics. • Do Big Campaigns Lead to an Increased Scope of Government? • Candidates make numerous promises, especially to state and local interests. • Hard for politicians to promise to cut size of government

25. Summary • Campaigns are media-oriented and expensive. • Delegates are selected through caucuses and primaries. • Money and contributions from PACs regulated by the FEC are essential to campaigns. • Campaigns reinforce perceptions but do not change minds.