Nominations and Campaigns

1. Nominations and Campaigns Chapter 9

2. 9.1 Primaries

3. Primary and General Elections Primary Elections General Elections Happen last (November) Ran by the gov When the GENERAL population picks the winner for the office • Happen first (May) • Ran by the parties • Where parties choose which candidate will be their nominee

4. The Nomination Game • Nomination: • The official endorsement of a candidate for office by a political party. • Campaign Strategy: • The plan to get yourself elected. • Candidate: • Someone running for office • Delegates: • Votes from each state for a candidate (in both primaries and general elections)

5. Deciding to Run • Campaigns are physically and emotionally taxing. • Other countries have short campaigns - generally less than 2 months. • U.S. campaigns (especially for President) can last 18 months or more.

6. Competing for Delegates • National party convention – meeting of party leaders who choose the candidate • Today, they just go on which states had the majority in primary elections (each state has a delegation or votes) • Before now, each state’s vote was cast by one or two party bosses, not by a majority vote in the state • So the nomination and primary process is more democratic now • Happened because of riots at the 68 democratic convention over Vietnam

7. Superdelegates • Parties still have delegates who get votes based on their position • Senator, governor in a state • Counts for 14% of Democratic delegates • 8% of Republican delegates

8. The Primary Road • Primary: • Elections in which voters choose the nominee or delegates pledged to the nominee. • Caucus: • Like a town hall meeting in schools and churches where people choose how to use their delegate votes • Generally primaries serve as elimination contests.

9. Frontloading • the tendency of states to hold primaries early • New Hampshire is first • When primaries are held is determined by the party

10. The First Primaries • Iowa has the first caucus • New Hampshire has the first primary • “The winner of the Iowa caucus doesn’t always go on to win the nomination, but the results from Iowa usually serve to winnow down the number of viable candidates for the primaries to come.”

11. Invisible Primaries • Candidates campaign as early as two years before a primary • Not really a primary, but you can lose big • Romney’s dad was brainwashed • Perry “oops”

13. Problems with the Primary System • Disproportionate attention to the early states. • Prominent politicians find it difficult to make time to run. • Money plays too big a role. • Participation in primaries and caucuses is low and unrepresentative. • The system gives too much power to the media. • Media can make or break candidates

14. Primary System • Puts candidates of the same party against each other • Means that they will seem more extreme to get party votes • Then they must move to the middle for the general election

15. The Inflated Importance of Iowa and New Hampshire (Figure 9.1)

16. National Conventions • Every July • 3 things happen here • Prez nomination (formality) • VP named by Prez • Party platform chosen – what the party will “stand on” for the next four years • 2012: Republicans said they’d be nice on illegal immigration

17. 9.1 Quiz A • What was decided by the McGovern-Fraser Commission? • What term refers to the master game plan candidates lay out go guide their electoral campaign? • What is Walter Mondale talking about below? For four years, that’s all I did. I mean, all I did. That’s all you think about. That’s all you talk about.... That’s your leisure. That’s your luxury.... “

18. 9.2 The Campaign Game

19. The High-Tech Media Campaign • Use of direct mail to generate support and money for the candidate • Get media attention through ad budget and “free” coverage • Emphasis on “marketing” a candidate • News focuses on strategies and events, not on policies

20. Organizing the Campaign • Get a campaign manager • Get a fund-raiser & legal counsel • Hire media and campaign consultants • Assemble staff / plan the logistics • Get research staff, policy advisors & pollsters • Get a good press secretary

21. Money and Campaigning • Federal Election Commission: Created by law in 1974 to administer campaign finance laws for federal elections. • Make campaign contributions open so all can see • Limited spending & required disclosure • Limited contributions to campaigns • Soft Money • Contributions (with no limits) used for party-building expenses or generic party advertising • A workaround to the FEC • Banned by McCain Feingold (2002) • 2000 (ATT gave $3 million, TMNT gave $7 million)

22. Definitions • Campaign contributions – made directly to a candidate • Must be reported to the FEC • Limit of $2500 per person per candidate • Limit of $38,000 per person to a whole party • Independent expenditures – money used to send out a political message not coordinated with a particular campaign • Buckley v. Valeo – SCOTUS case saying my contributions to my own campaign are unlimited

23. PACs • PACs: Created by law in 1974 to allow corporations, labor unions and others to donate money to campaigns. • Over 3900 PACs today donating over $212 million

24. Money and Campaigning • Are Campaigns Too Expensive? • Fund raising takes up lots of time. • The closer the race, the more money is needed. • Does Money Buy Victory? • Too much money can be worse than not enough. • But, candidates need “enough” money to win

25. The Hyrdaulic Theory of Money and Politics • “money, like water, inevitably finds its way around any obstacleand on to politics.” • 527 Groups (Super PACs) – unregulated by the FEC • Not given to candidates, but spent on behalf of their message • Can’t say “vote for” or “vote against” • Citizens United v. FEC (2010) – made contributions to Super PACs unlimited • Money = speech

27. 9.2 Quiz B • What kind of groups allow for members to contribute as much money as they want as long as it doesn’t go directly to candidates? • What was money compared to in the “hydraulic theory of money and politics”? It was referring to how, no matter what, money will find its way to politics. • What was stopped by McCain Feingold?

28. 9.3

29. Impact of Campaigns • 3 main impacts: • Reinforce voters’ preference for candidates • Activate voters – get them to give money or campaign for you • Convert – change voters’ minds • Rarely happens • Why campaigns don’t matter that much • Selective perception – ppl only think about what they already agree with • Long term factors (party identificaiton) play a bigger role than campaings • The incumbency name recognition factor • Wedge issues – issues the other party is divided on • You can get some votes by picking a side

30. Whether to Vote • Suffrage – right to vote • All citizens have it except felony convicts (varying by state) • Turnout is hitting all-time lows • 80% in 1896 • 59% in 2012 (Presidential) • 40% in 2010 (mid-term, no President) • Biggest reason not to vote – don’t want to take time off from school/work • Also, low political efficacy • the idea that my vote matters • Some vote for civic duty • Its my job as a citizen to vote

31. Registering • Voter registration can take time and effort • Must put name on list sometimes a month before the election • Differs from state to state • Motor Voter Act – register by checking a box when you renew your driver’s license • Haven't seen an increase due to it yet • Voter ID Laws – rules that you must have an official ID to vote • Pro law – keeps down vote fraud • Con law – it keeps students, minorities and poor from voting

32. Why we don’t vote • Registering can be burdensom (others register everyone) • We have too many elections (others have fewer) • At least two a year • No major communist/liberal party (others have them) • Doesn’t motivate ppl to vote because Dems and Reps are very similar • Won’t change much • Election Day is always a Tuesday when ppl are working (others have it on a Saturday or holiday)

34. 9.3 Quiz A • What is the biggest reason people don’t vote? • What act allowed people to register to vote when they renew their drivers’ licenses? • Some people vote because they have a sense of __________ _________ which means they think voting preserves democracy.

35. 9.3 Quiz B • Name three reasons people don’t vote. • What act in the 1990s allowed for people to register to vote when they get their drivers’ license? • Name two groups of people who are less likely to vote than their counterparts.

36. 9.4 How Americans Vote

37. How We Vote • Mandate theory of elections – once elected, candidates must carry out what they promised • It’s a promise they must keep • Three elements of voters’ decisions (Party, person and policy) • Party identification • Evaluation of individual candidates • Policy voting

38. Party Identification (Party) • Like religion, favorite sports team • Ppl keep them for a long time • Simplifies politics for ppl that don’t care much about them • The party ideas guide them • Don’t have to worry about the particular issues • In the 1950s parties matter a lot more • Southern democrats would vote for a yellow dog if it is a democrat • “My party-right or wrong.” • Changes w/ rise of TV • Ppl focus on the individual candidates more now

39. Evaluation of Individual Candidates (Person) • When policy views and party identification are the same, good pictures can get you elected • Three important factors of candidate image: • Integrity • Honesty, morality • Reliability • Dependable, not a flip-flopper • Competence • Intelligent, able to do the job • “as a student of Shakespeare, I always saw the person and the policy as inextricably braided. You had to know something about the person to whom you were going to entrust life and death decisions.”

40. Policy Voting (Policy) • To work, ppl must be educated, know where candidates stand, know the difference between stances and vote for who they agree with • When this works, they vote for the closest candidate to their views only 71% of the time • Well, crap. • To avoid losing policy votes, politicans cloud their views with ‘rhetoric’ • language designed to have a persuasive or impressive effect on its audience, but often regarded as lacking in sincerity or meaningful content • Nixon and Humphrey on Vietnam • Not the case today – the media leads candidates to take a stand and make them stand out against their opponents • Horse race journalism – when media focuses on who’s winning in the polls, not the issues

43. 9.4 Quiz A • How did Nixon and Humphrey handle their views on Vietnam? • Which idea is described below? • Once elected, candidates must carry out what they promised • Which of the three factors that lead people to vote was compared to a person’s loyalty to a sports team or their following of a religion?

44. 9.4 Quiz B • Fill in the blank on this quote from Maureen Dowd: “as a student of ____________, I always saw the person and the policy as inextricably braided. You had to know something about the person to whom you were going to entrust life and death decisions.” • Of the three image characteristics most valued for candidates, which one is concerned with a candidate not being a ‘flip-flopper’? • List the three major elements of why people vote the way they do.

45. 9.5 The Electoral College…Eww 318-323

46. True or False?  • The candidate with the most votes is elected president. 

47. Answer: Not necessarily.  Ask Al Gore. • The 2000 Election    • The Popular Vote •           Al Gore   50,996,039 •           George W. Bush   50,456,141  • The Electoral Vote •           George W. Bush  271 •           Al Gore   267 

48. Historical Background  • Framers disagreed on congress/ppl electing pres. • EC was compromise.

49. State Electoral Votes  •     Each state gets the sum of its representation in the U.S. House and Senate •     Kentucky: 6 Congressmen + 2 Senators = 8 Electors

50. Electors  • Individuals selected in each state to officially cast that state’s electoral votes. • Electors almost always vote for their party’s candidates.