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November 3 IDR

November 3 IDR. To do: What we have, what we’d like to do Modeling Mathematical/numerical approaches What we need inside the codes Tasks. What we promised to do. Volcanic eruption column, plume advection and dispersion Where is the cloud likely to be # hours from now?

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November 3 IDR

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  1. November 3 IDR To do: What we have, what we’d like to do Modeling Mathematical/numerical approaches What we need inside the codes Tasks

  2. What we promised to do • Volcanic eruption column, plume advection and dispersion • Where is the cloud likely to be # hours from now? • Quantifiable likelihoods and confidence intervals/error metrics

  3. Sources of uncertainty • Volcanological: • Column height • Size distribution within column • Translates into • Vent radius • Eruption rate/mass flux • Particle size distribution

  4. Sources of uncertainty • Meteorological: • Local windfield • Time evolution of windfield

  5. Sources of uncertainty • Modeling/numerical: • What is the effective equation of XXX code (numerical diffusion) • How does code account for local windfield variability? • How accurate is XXXcode in horizontal/vertical directions?

  6. Column modeling • Use a vent model (e.g. BENT) to replace column uncertainty with physical model and epistemicly uncertain parameters (radius, flux) • Reasonable distributions of parameters to characterize vent and exflux

  7. Windfield modeling • Reconstructed windfields roughly known (known at a few points), but local uncertainty large. • Predictive modeling must characterize all the uncertainty in weather prediction in a few parameters

  8. Under the hood • Inside XXXcode (WRF?) • Distributions for spatial fluctuations, temporal changes? • How to characterize the accuracy of the relatively sparse (compared to computational grid) windfield samples? • How is advection, diffusion computed?

  9. Numerics • Characterize all sources of uncertainty • Remove uncertainty where possible, replace with physics (and physical model uncertainty) where possible • Distributions for uncertain parameters • Simulations for aleatoric uncertainty • Reconstruct output distributions

  10. Numerics • Several approaches • Basic advection-diffusion equation, uncertain speed, boundary conditions. What is known? What is computed? • PCQ/gaussian sum marriage • Alternatives?

  11. To do – short term • Advection-diffusion solver, analysis, simulation • WRF(?) details, pull source code apart • Column-WRF(?) marriage and characterize all the uncertain inputs required

  12. AGU plans • ?

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