1. The Hazardous Weather Testbed / Experimental Warning Program Travis Smith (OU / CIMMS / NSSL) David Andra (NWS / WFO / OUN) 2nd Workshop on Severe Weather Technology for NWS Warning Decision-Making – July 11, 2007

2. EFP EWP What is the Hazardous Weather Testbed? • Both a facility and an organization… • The facility is located on the second floor of the new NWC, between the SPC and WFO OUN operational forecasting areas. • An organization that supports and promotes collaborative research activities between NSSL, SPC, OUN, and the broader meteorological community of researcher scientists, academia, and forecasters. Two Main Program Areas… Experimental Forecast Program Experimental Warning Program Prediction of hazardous mesoscale and stormscale events from a few hours to a week in advance on spatial domains ranging from several counties to the CONUS. Detection and prediction of hazardous mesoscale and stormscale events up to several hours in advance on spatial domains of counties to fractions of counties.

3. HWT’s Experimental Warning Program • Focuses on mesoscale and stormscale technology, science, and services. • Collaborative approach involving NOAA research and operations, universities, and elements of user community. • Activities rely on visiting scientists and forecasters from across nation. • Results support NOAA mission and goals at 122 WFOs nationwide

4. Collaboration A few miscellaneous projects… NSSL / SPC / ROC / GSD / WFO mid early mid-late late ’80s - ’70s ’80s 85 ’80s 1989 early ’90s 1994-95 mid ’90s 1997 thru 2007 + JDOP Early algorithms MAPS COPS QED Stormtipe Pre-AWIPS Risk Reduction Pre-STORM DOPLIGHT NSSL/SPC WDSS II JPOL COMET IHOP ORDA VORTEX NEXRAD IOT&E II WDSS AWIPS

5. Results • JDOP…… Operational Doppler weather radar • MAPS etc…… Hazardous Weather Outlook • IOT&E II…… WSR-88D Deployment • Risk reduction/ISPAN…… Modernized field offices • Experimental SPC outlooks…… Operational probabilistic outlooks • WDSS……. Next generation algorithms / SCAN deployment • Convective initiation…… SPC operational RUC based analysis/forecast • SREF…… SPC operational ensemble forecast • AWIPS w/s prototype……. Design implementation • JPOLE……. Dual pol deployment • PAR…… TBD

6. NSSL PAR CASA FY07 EWP Experiments • Visiting / local warning decision- making experts: • evaluation • collaboration Probabilistic Warning Guidance Severe HAzards Verification Experiment

7. “Warn on Detection” (today) • Deterministic • Forecaster identifies threat area (T=0) and projects future motion of threat • Forecaster may anticipate future evolution • Threat area is defined by non-translating polygon • Short lead times

8. “Warn on Forecast” • Probabilistic • Storm-scale model ensemble analysis and forecast • every 5-10 minutes?! • 1-2 hour lead times?! • What is the forecaster’s role?

9. How do we getfrom this… to this?

10. Initial threat area 30 min. threat probability 1 hr threat swath (accum) Est. time of arrival Probabilistic Warning Guidance • Bridge to Warn On Forecast • High resolution in space and time • Goal: Improve decision support for high impact weather hazards. • Initially convective hazards

11. The Vision: The future evolution of warning decision-making science “Warn on detection” (deterministic) Forecaster-based uncertainty NWP “Warn on forecast” Blended statistics NWP WRF storm typing Statistics-based uncertainty Storm-scale NWP EnKF analysis / storm typing Present 2010 (± 2 yr) 2017 (± 5 yr) 2025 (± 10 yr) WSR-88D Dual-Polarization Radar CASA Phased Array Radar Existing storms Newly initiated convection Forecast convection (doesn’t yet exist)

12. Statistics / storm-scale analysis / threat identification The Vision: The future evolution of warning decision-making science Data assimilation / NWP “Warn on detection” (deterministic) Forecaster-based uncertainty NWP “Warn on forecast” Blended statistics NWP WRF storm typing Statistics-based uncertainty Storm-scale NWP EnKF analysis / storm typing Present 2010 (± 2 yr) 2017 (± 5 yr) 2025 (± 10 yr) WSR-88D Dual-Polarization Radar CASA Phased Array Radar Existing storms Newly initiated convection Forecast convection (doesn’t yet exist)

13. A couple of thoughts • Very specific warning information requires very detailed verification information. • Temporal • Spatial • This is one vision. Is it on track? Does it need minor or major modifications?

14. Acknowledgements • HWT leadership: Mike Foster, Jeff Kimpel, Joe Schaefer, Jack Kain, Steve Weiss, David Andra, Travis Smith • 2007 Project PIs, EWP Coordinators, Weather Briefers, and Evaluators: Jerry Brotzge, Don Burgess, Patrick Burke, John Ferree, Brad Grant, Pam Heinselman, Angelyn Kolodziej, Jim Ladue, Les Lemon, Kevin Manross, Mike Magsig, Dan Miller, Steve Nelson, Kiel Ortega, Brenda Philips, Liz Quoetone, Kevin Scharfenberg, Paul Schlatter, Dave Sharp, Greg Stumpf, Arthur Witt, and anyone who I inadvertently left out.