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Valuation: Packet 2 Relative Valuation, Asset-based valuation and Private Company Valuation

Valuation: Packet 2 Relative Valuation, Asset-based valuation and Private Company Valuation

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Valuation: Packet 2 Relative Valuation, Asset-based valuation and Private Company Valuation

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  1. Aswath Damodaran Valuation: Packet 2Relative Valuation, Asset-based valuation and Private Company Valuation Aswath Damodaran Updated: January 2013

  2. The Essence of relative valuation? • In relative valuation, the value of an asset is compared to the values assessed by the market for similar or comparable assets. • To do relative valuation then, • we need to identify comparable assets and obtain market values for these assets • convert these market values into standardized values, since the absolute prices cannot be compared This process of standardizing creates price multiples. • compare the standardized value or multiple for the asset being analyzed to the standardized values for comparable asset, controlling for any differences between the firms that might affect the multiple, to judge whether the asset is under or over valued Aswath Damodaran

  3. Relative valuation is pervasive… • Most asset valuations are relative. • Most equity valuations on Wall Street are relative valuations. • Almost 85% of equity research reports are based upon a multiple and comparables. • More than 50% of all acquisition valuations are based upon multiples • Rules of thumb based on multiples are not only common but are often the basis for final valuation judgments. • While there are more discounted cashflow valuations in consulting and corporate finance, they are often relative valuations masquerading as discounted cash flow valuations. • The objective in many discounted cashflow valuations is to back into a number that has been obtained by using a multiple. • The terminal value in a significant number of discounted cashflow valuations is estimated using a multiple. Aswath Damodaran

  4. Why relative valuation? • “If you think I’m crazy, you should see the guy who lives across the hall” Jerry Seinfeld talking about Kramer in a Seinfeld episode “A little inaccuracy sometimes saves tons of explanation” H.H. Munro “ If you are going to screw up, make sure that you have lots of company” Ex-portfolio manager Aswath Damodaran

  5. The Market Imperative…. • Relative valuation is much more likely to reflect market perceptions and moods than discounted cash flow valuation. This can be an advantage when it is important that the price reflect these perceptions as is the case when • the objective is to sell a security at that price today (as in the case of an IPO) • investing on “momentum” based strategies • With relative valuation, there will always be a significant proportion of securities that are under valued and over valued. • Since portfolio managers are judged based upon how they perform on a relative basis (to the market and other money managers), relative valuation is more tailored to their needs • Relative valuation generally requires less information than discounted cash flow valuation (especially when multiples are used as screens) Aswath Damodaran

  6. Multiples are just standardized estimates of price… Aswath Damodaran

  7. The Four Steps to Deconstructing Multiples • Define the multiple • In use, the same multiple can be defined in different ways by different users. When comparing and using multiples, estimated by someone else, it is critical that we understand how the multiples have been estimated • Describe the multiple • Too many people who use a multiple have no idea what its cross sectional distribution is. If you do not know what the cross sectional distribution of a multiple is, it is difficult to look at a number and pass judgment on whether it is too high or low. • Analyze the multiple • It is critical that we understand the fundamentals that drive each multiple, and the nature of the relationship between the multiple and each variable. • Apply the multiple • Defining the comparable universe and controlling for differences is far more difficult in practice than it is in theory. Aswath Damodaran

  8. Definitional Tests • Is the multiple consistently defined? • Proposition 1: Both the value (the numerator) and the standardizing variable ( the denominator) should be to the same claimholders in the firm. In other words, the value of equity should be divided by equity earnings or equity book value, and firm value should be divided by firm earnings or book value. • Is the multiple uniformly estimated? • The variables used in defining the multiple should be estimated uniformly across assets in the “comparable firm” list. • If earnings-based multiples are used, the accounting rules to measure earnings should be applied consistently across assets. The same rule applies with book-value based multiples. Aswath Damodaran

  9. Example 1: Price Earnings Ratio: Definition PE = Market Price per Share / Earnings per Share • There are a number of variants on the basic PE ratio in use. They are based upon how the price and the earnings are defined. • Price: is usually the current price is sometimes the average price for the year • EPS: EPS in most recent financial year EPS in trailing 12 months Forecasted earnings per share next year Forecasted earnings per share in future year Aswath Damodaran

  10. Example 2: Staying on PE ratios • Assuming that you are comparing the PE ratios across technology companies, many of which have options outstanding. What measure of PE ratio would yield the most consistent comparisons? • Price/ Primary EPS (actual shares, no options) • Price/ Fully Diluted EPS (actual shares + all options) • Price/ Partially Diluted EPS (counting only in-the-money options) • Other Aswath Damodaran

  11. Example 3: Enterprise Value /EBITDA Multiple • The enterprise value to EBITDA multiple is obtained by netting cash out against debt to arrive at enterprise value and dividing by EBITDA. • Why do we net out cash from firm value? • What happens if a firm has cross holdings which are categorized as: • Minority interests? • Majority active interests? Aswath Damodaran

  12. Descriptive Tests • What is the average and standard deviation for this multiple, across the universe (market)? • What is the median for this multiple? • The median for this multiple is often a more reliable comparison point. • How large are the outliers to the distribution, and how do we deal with the outliers? • Throwing out the outliers may seem like an obvious solution, but if the outliers all lie on one side of the distribution (they usually are large positive numbers), this can lead to a biased estimate. • Are there cases where the multiple cannot be estimated? Will ignoring these cases lead to a biased estimate of the multiple? • How has this multiple changed over time? Aswath Damodaran

  13. 1. Multiples have skewed distributions… Aswath Damodaran

  14. 2. Making statistics “dicey” Aswath Damodaran

  15. 3. Markets have a lot in commonPE Ratios: US, Europe, Japan and Emerging Markets – January 2013 Aswath Damodaran

  16. 3a. And the differences are revealing…Price to Book Ratios across globe – January 2013 Aswath Damodaran

  17. 4. Simplistic rules almost always break down…6 times EBITDA was not cheap in 2010… Aswath Damodaran

  18. But it may work in 2013… in some markets… Aswath Damodaran

  19. Analytical Tests • What are the fundamentals that determine and drive these multiples? • Proposition 2: Embedded in every multiple are all of the variables that drive every discounted cash flow valuation - growth, risk and cash flow patterns. • How do changes in these fundamentals change the multiple? • The relationship between a fundamental (like growth) and a multiple (such as PE) is almost never linear. • Proposition 3: It is impossible to properly compare firms on a multiple, if we do not know how fundamentals and the multiple move. Aswath Damodaran

  20. A Simple Analytical device Aswath Damodaran

  21. I . PE Ratios • To understand the fundamentals, start with a basic equity discounted cash flow model. • With the dividend discount model, • Dividing both sides by the current earnings per share, • If this had been a FCFE Model, Aswath Damodaran

  22. Using the Fundamental Model to Estimate PE For a High Growth Firm • The price-earnings ratio for a high growth firm can also be related to fundamentals. In the special case of the two-stage dividend discount model, this relationship can be made explicit fairly simply: • For a firm that does not pay what it can afford to in dividends, substitute FCFE/Earnings for the payout ratio. • Dividing both sides by the earnings per share: Aswath Damodaran

  23. A Simple Example • Assume that you have been asked to estimate the PE ratio for a firm which has the following characteristics: Variable High Growth Phase Stable Growth Phase Expected Growth Rate 25% 8% Payout Ratio 20% 50% Beta 1.00 1.00 Number of years 5 years Forever after year 5 Riskfree rate = T.Bond Rate = 6% Required rate of return = 6% + 1(5.5%)= 11.5% Aswath Damodaran

  24. a. PE and Growth: Firm grows at x% for 5 years, 8% thereafter Aswath Damodaran

  25. b. PE and Risk: A Follow up Example Aswath Damodaran

  26. Example 1: Comparing PE ratios across Emerging Markets Aswath Damodaran

  27. Example 2: An Old Example with Emerging Markets: June 2000 Aswath Damodaran

  28. Regression Results • The regression of PE ratios on these variables provides the following – PE = 16.16 - 7.94 Interest Rates + 154.40 Growth in GDP - 0.1116 Country Risk R Squared = 73% Aswath Damodaran

  29. Predicted PE Ratios Aswath Damodaran

  30. Example 3: Comparisons of PE across time: PE Ratio for the S&P 500 Aswath Damodaran

  31. Is low (high) PE cheap (expensive)? • A market strategist argues that stocks are cheap because the PE ratio today is low relative to the average PE ratio across time. Do you agree? • Yes • No • If you do not agree, what factors might explain the lower PE ratio today? Aswath Damodaran

  32. E/P Ratios , T.Bond Rates and Term Structure Aswath Damodaran

  33. Regression Results • There is a strong positive relationship between E/P ratios and T.Bond rates, as evidenced by the correlation of 0.69 between the two variables., • In addition, there is evidence that the term structure also affects the PE ratio. • In the following regression, using 1960-2012 data, we regress E/P ratios against the level of T.Bond rates and a term structure variable (T.Bond - T.Bill rate) E/P = 3.45% + 0.5599 T.Bond Rate – 0.1971 (T.Bond Rate-T.Bill Rate) (3.98) (5.41) (-0.83) R squared = 37.89% • Given the treasury bond rate and treasury bill rate today, is the market under or over valued today? • The R squared of this regression has dropped from about 50% in 2008 to about 38% today. How would you interpret this result? Aswath Damodaran

  34. II. PEG Ratio • PEG Ratio = PE ratio/ Expected Growth Rate in EPS • For consistency, you should make sure that your earnings growth reflects the EPS that you use in your PE ratio computation. • The growth rates should preferably be over the same time period. • To understand the fundamentals that determine PEG ratios, let us return again to a 2-stage equity discounted cash flow model: • Dividing both sides of the equation by the earnings gives us the equation for the PE ratio. Dividing it again by the expected growth ‘g: Aswath Damodaran

  35. PEG Ratios and Fundamentals • Risk and payout, which affect PE ratios, continue to affect PEG ratios as well. • Implication: When comparing PEG ratios across companies, we are making implicit or explicit assumptions about these variables. • Dividing PE by expected growth does not neutralize the effects of expected growth, since the relationship between growth and value is not linear and fairly complex (even in a 2-stage model) Aswath Damodaran

  36. A Simple Example • Assume that you have been asked to estimate the PEG ratio for a firm which has the following characteristics: Variable High Growth Phase Stable Growth Phase Expected Growth Rate 25% 8% Payout Ratio 20% 50% Beta 1.00 1.00 • Riskfree rate = T.Bond Rate = 6% • Required rate of return = 6% + 1(5.5%)= 11.5% • The PEG ratio for this firm can be estimated as follows: Aswath Damodaran

  37. PEG Ratios and Risk Aswath Damodaran

  38. PEG Ratios and Quality of Growth Aswath Damodaran

  39. PE Ratios and Expected Growth Aswath Damodaran

  40. PEG Ratios and Fundamentals: Propositions • Proposition 1: High risk companies will trade at much lower PEG ratios than low risk companies with the same expected growth rate. • Corollary 1: The company that looks most under valued on a PEG ratio basis in a sector may be the riskiest firm in the sector • Proposition 2: Companies that can attain growth more efficiently by investing less in better return projects will have higher PEG ratios than companies that grow at the same rate less efficiently. • Corollary 2: Companies that look cheap on a PEG ratio basis may be companies with high reinvestment rates and poor project returns. • Proposition 3: Companies with very low or very high growth rates will tend to have higher PEG ratios than firms with average growth rates. This bias is worse for low growth stocks. • Corollary 3: PEG ratios do not neutralize the growth effect. Aswath Damodaran

  41. III. Price to Book Ratio • Going back to a simple dividend discount model, • Defining the return on equity (ROE) = EPS0 / Book Value of Equity, the value of equity can be written as: • If the return on equity is based upon expected earnings in the next time period, this can be simplified to, Aswath Damodaran

  42. Price Book Value Ratio: Stable Growth FirmAnother Presentation • This formulation can be simplified even further by relating growth to the return on equity: g = (1 - Payout ratio) * ROE • Substituting back into the P/BV equation, • The price-book value ratio of a stable firm is determined by the differential between the return on equity and the required rate of return on its projects. • Building on this equation, a company that is expected to generate a ROE higher (lower than, equal to) its cost of equity should trade at a price to book ratio higher (less than, equal to) one. Aswath Damodaran

  43. Now changing to an Enterprise value multipleEV/ Book Capital • To see the determinants of the value/book ratio, consider the simple free cash flow to the firm model: • Dividing both sides by the book value, we get: • If we replace, FCFF = EBIT(1-t) - (g/ROC) EBIT(1-t),we get: Aswath Damodaran

  44. IV. EV to EBITDA - Determinants • The value of the operating assets of a firm can be written as: • Now the value of the firm can be rewritten as • Dividing both sides of the equation by EBITDA, • The determinants of EV/EBITDA are: • The cost of capital • Expected growth rate • Tax rate • Reinvestment rate (or ROC) Aswath Damodaran

  45. A Simple Example • Consider a firm with the following characteristics: • Tax Rate = 36% • Capital Expenditures/EBITDA = 30% • Depreciation/EBITDA = 20% • Cost of Capital = 10% • The firm has no working capital requirements • The firm is in stable growth and is expected to grow 5% a year forever. • In this case, the Value/EBITDA multiple for this firm can be estimated as follows: Aswath Damodaran

  46. The Determinants of EV/EBITDA Tax Rates Reinvestment Needs Excess Returns Aswath Damodaran

  47. V. EV/Sales Ratio • If pre-tax operating margins are used, the appropriate value estimate is that of the firm. In particular, if one makes the replaces the FCFF with the expanded version: • Free Cash Flow to the Firm = EBIT (1 - tax rate) (1 - Reinvestment Rate) • Then the Value of the Firm can be written as a function of the after-tax operating margin= (EBIT (1-t)/Sales g = Growth rate in after-tax operating income for the first n years gn = Growth rate in after-tax operating income after n years forever (Stable growth rate) RIR Growth, Stable = Reinvestment rate in high growth and stable periods WACC = Weighted average cost of capital Aswath Damodaran

  48. The value of a brand name • One of the critiques of traditional valuation is that is fails to consider the value of brand names and other intangibles. • The approaches used by analysts to value brand names are often ad-hoc and may significantly overstate or understate their value. • One of the benefits of having a well-known and respected brand name is that firms can charge higher prices for the same products, leading to higher profit margins and hence to higher price-sales ratios and firm value. The larger the price premium that a firm can charge, the greater is the value of the brand name. • In general, the value of a brand name can be written as: • Value of brand name ={(V/S)b-(V/S)g }* Sales • (V/S)b = Value of Firm/Sales ratio with the benefit of the brand name • (V/S)g = Value of Firm/Sales ratio of the firm with the generic product Aswath Damodaran

  49. Valuing Brand Name Coca Cola With Cott Margins Current Revenues = $21,962.00 $21,962.00 Length of high-growth period 10 10 Reinvestment Rate = 50% 50% Operating Margin (after-tax) 15.57% 5.28% Sales/Capital (Turnover ratio) 1.34 1.34 Return on capital (after-tax) 20.84% 7.06% Growth rate during period (g) = 10.42% 3.53% Cost of Capital during period = 7.65% 7.65% Stable Growth Period Growth rate in steady state = 4.00% 4.00% Return on capital = 7.65% 7.65% Reinvestment Rate = 52.28% 52.28% Cost of Capital = 7.65% 7.65% Value of Firm = $79,611.25 $15,371.24 Value of brand name = $79,611 -$15,371 = $64,240 million Aswath Damodaran

  50. The Determinants of Multiples… Aswath Damodaran