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Frank van Tongeren Trade and Agriculture Directorate

What future for agriculture and food in an increasingly globalized world? Highlights from a recent symposium. Frank van Tongeren Trade and Agriculture Directorate. Symposium set-up. Symposium 30-31 march 2009 Identify key drivers, trends and tradeoffs Horizon 2030

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Frank van Tongeren Trade and Agriculture Directorate

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  1. What future for agriculture and food in an increasingly globalized world?Highlights from a recent symposium Frank van Tongeren Trade and Agriculture Directorate

  2. Symposium set-up • Symposium 30-31 march 2009 • Identify key drivers, trends and tradeoffs • Horizon 2030 • Help develop ‘robust’ policies for alternative futures • 130 participants (academics, policy makers, civil society), but little involvement of developing countries • Paperless meeting with panels and breakout sessions

  3. Broad themes • Competing claims: • What are the main scarcities that will drive agro-food developments? • Innovation: • What can technology and innovation contribute? • Agriculture and its neighbours: • What are the links with non-agricultural sectors? • Great expectations: • What is society expecting from the global food system?

  4. Main messages • Behind current economic crisis may loom a more important long-term threat • Scarcity of natural resources • Sharpened efficiency-equity trade off • Growing scarcity: • Land, water, micro-nutrients, phosphate • absolute or relative scarcity? • Internalize environmental and other externalities: • ‘righter’ prices • But adjustment may fall on poorer households, especially in developing countries

  5. Food and climate change • A dilemma: more food while reducing green house gas emissions • Significant contribution from agriculture to GHG emissions • 10% -12% IPCC-4 • 25%-35% Searchinger • Tough problem • but with more biomass for energy even harder • Much uncertainty around measuring agriculture’s contribution to emissions and to carbon sequestration • Need better accounting

  6. Agriculture and energy • Linkages between agriculture and energy have strengthened • More demand for biomass as energy feedstock • Main drivers for future: • Relative price of oil and biomass • Biofuel policies • Biomass technology • Innovation in alternative renewables (solar wind)

  7. Agriculture and the rest of the economy • Integration of agriculture with other sectors differs between developed and developing countries • Financial sector • Supply chains • Role of supermarkets in transformation (urban demands) • Private standards support improved logistics and quality along supply chain in developing countries

  8. Agriculture and innovation • Innovation and technologies are key factors for the future • Overcome emerging scarcities : they are not necessarily absolute • E.g. plants can be made smarter in their use of water and nutrients • Right incentives for innovation and adoption in different social, cultural and economic contexts • Effective regulatory framework important • Balance economic interests of innovator and potential hazards of new technologies

  9. Conclusions • Resource scarcity is a problem that needs to be addressed by innovations in technology, improved efficiency along the supply chain; • Fixing market imperfections and getting prices to better reflect resource scarcities is a key challenge; • Distributional consequences of improving resource use policies have to become integral to policy design. • The future is uncertain; anticipating emerging scarcities is one important aspect of preparations for the future. But scarcities are not necessarily absolute and can be overcome. • Policies must get the incentives right for long-term growth in the context of increasing environmental pressures.

  10. Thank You Trade and Agriculture Directorate Visit our website: www.oecd.org/tad/ Contact us: tad.contact@oecd.org

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