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PREDICTIVE MODELING

PREDICTIVE MODELING. Daniel V. Pinch III Associate Vice President Emerson College. WHY?. To reduce your discount rate In order to attract and retain higher quality students Attract higher quality students while keeping discount rate constant. Which category does your tuition fall into?.

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PREDICTIVE MODELING

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  1. PREDICTIVE MODELING Daniel V. Pinch III Associate Vice President Emerson College

  2. WHY? • To reduce your discount rate • In order to attract and retain higher quality students • Attract higher quality students while keeping discount rate constant

  3. Which category does your tuition fall into? • I. “High Interest” Institution: • Many quality applicants to choose from • “Mild Interest” Institution: • A good number of applicants to choose from • “Low Interest” Institution: • A select group of applicants to choose from

  4. Do you know your institutions current acceptance and yield rates?

  5. Many individuals within the institution do not/cannot visualize a problem • Students are expecting more aid • Federal limits on aid • Institutional aid is capped as a % of revenues • Institutional leaders and decision makers need to proactively spend money to identify and rectify problems

  6. In This Example . . . • Enrollment is up • Housing is full • Retention is high

  7. What is the Problem?

  8. Once a Problem has been identified The etiology is often contested Decision makers have differing views on the causes of the problem -Diversity -Retention of key students -Increased competition Leading to different ideas on potential solutions ~Many solutions will be offered~

  9. The challenge is to identify a workable solution ‘Vendor selection is the key to solving the problem. The right vendor is truly an invested partner.’

  10. The following items must be worked out . . . • Data collection • Internal vs. External • Data Ownership • Compatibility with team • Belief in the proposed solution • Success measures • Solution costs

  11. Admission vs. Financial aid Deadlines • Effective project scheduling • Project point person • Client input sessions • Implementation • Deliverables • Review sessions

  12. Plan on Problems • Formatting of data • Timing of transmissions • Terminology

  13. Aid allocation Process In order to better understand the aid allocation process as it impacts the enrollment continuum, the institution identifies 4 mutually exclusive groups: • Accepted • - Enrolled • - Withdrawn • - Graduated

  14. Profiles were done on a variety of key student segments • Gender • State Residency • SAT Scores • Entry Date • Academic Department • High School Rank

  15. We looked at the aid students only In this model

  16. ~ Once the students most likely to enroll and persist are identified the data is placed into a model ~

  17. ~ The model will put the students into 10 Decile’s; each identified by their likelihood of enrolling and persisting ~

  18. The model was implemented and was VERY successful!

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