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Voting for Congress

Voting for Congress. The Statics and Dynamics of Party Ideology. Learning Objectives. Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election . Evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of how presidential and congressional elections are financed. Why Parties Move?.

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Voting for Congress

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  1. Voting for Congress The Statics and Dynamics of Party Ideology

  2. Learning Objectives • Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election. • Evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of how presidential and congressional elections are financed.

  3. Why Parties Move?

  4. Party Movement • When do parties change ideologies • When do the diverge? • When do they resemble each other

  5. Where To Build a Bar in Central Texas? Here… in Bastrop

  6. Or Here? 6th Street

  7. Why Do you See These two across the Street From Each Other?

  8. Why Does This, Appear next to This?

  9. Why Do We Have?

  10. These Strategies Apply to political parties

  11. Lets Apply this to Ideology • Here is a distribution with 0 representing policy liberalism, and 100 representing policy conservativism • A and B represent political parties

  12. Where Parties Should Go in A Normal Distribution They Move To the Center

  13. Why go to the Center • You Cant leapfrog the other party • More voters • At what point do you stop moving to the Center?

  14. When do you stop?

  15. The Problem of Being Too Moderate • A Third Party could grab your flank • Too many of your people stay home

  16. Staying Put

  17. What About A Bimodal Distribution?

  18. Party Polarization

  19. One Hump is often Bigger 2010

  20. In 2008 it was the other way

  21. Multi Party Systems

  22. Polygamy

  23. A polymodal System

  24. A Polymodal System • In PR systems, 1 party for Each hump • How might this differ in a Single Member District System?

  25. In Germany

  26. Party Movement in Multiparty Systems • Stay Put! • Distinguish yourself from your enemies

  27. How our Parties Deal with the Humps • Social and Economic Conservatives (within the GOP) • The Many Humps within the Democratic Party

  28. Why do we have a two party system

  29. How Many Parties in Majority Elections • Duverger’s Law • Mechanical Effect • Psychological Effect

  30. The Kinds of Parties • Those who are there to win • Those that are there to influence

  31. How many parties in a PR system? • As many parties as humps exist • Depends on the threshold

  32. New Parties

  33. Getting New Parties in Our System • Existing parties cant jump over each other • New Parties come from • Between the gap • On the fringe

  34. What New parties Want to Do Win elections Threaten Existing Parties

  35. How can Third Parties Win? A Shift In Franchise…. The electorate changes!

  36. Splitting the Vote

  37. Parties Will often Try To be Ambiguous, Why?

  38. Voting For Congress

  39. Goals of Congressperson • The Primary Goal is to Get Elected • The Next goal is to get re-elected (Mayhew, 1974)

  40. Partisanship and turnout

  41. Lower turnout in Congressional Elections • Lower Excitement • Lower Salience • Lower Information

  42. Partisanship is Most Important • The biggest factor in Congressional election • Even in open seat elections

  43. Safe Seats • Seat Maximization through Gerrymandering • Majority Minority Districts

  44. Residential Self Selection

  45. Major Factor 2 Incumbency

  46. Incumbency • Can Eclipse Partisanship in some places • A resource that provides many benefits

  47. Incumbency • The incumbent dominates the discourse • The incumbent has the advantages • It is the Incumbent’s seat to lose

  48. Incumbent Benefit - Money • Attract Money at Higher Rates • The War Chest

  49. Incumbent Benefit- Name Recognition • We Vote For Who We Know • What can Incumbents Do?

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