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Strategic Issues

Strategic Issues. Seamless Suite of Products Climate Weather Linkages. NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather. Outlook. Guidance. Threats Assessments. Forecast Lead Time. Forecasts. Watches. Warnings & Alert Coordination. Benefits.

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Strategic Issues

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  1. Strategic Issues • Seamless Suite of Products • Climate Weather Linkages

  2. NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits Service Center Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Seasonal Predictions Months Week 2 Hazards Assessment CPC 2 Week Climate/Weather Linkage 6-10 Day Forecast 1 Week NDFD, Days 4 -7 HPC OPC TPC Days Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3 Tropical Storms to Day 5 Severe Weather to Day 8 Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 : SPC AWC SWPC Hours Minutes Health Maritime Aviation Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Environment Fire Weather Life & Property Emergency Mgmt Energy Planning Space Operations Reservoir Control

  3. NWS Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits NCEP Model Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months Climate Forecast System 2 Week North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate/Weather Linkage 1 Week Global Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Days Ocean Model Hurricane Models* North American Mesoscale Model Hours Severe Weather Mesoscale Runs* • GFDL • WRF Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Minutes Dispersion Models for DHS Health Maritime Aviation Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Environment Fire Weather Life & Property Emergency Mgmt Energy Planning Space Operations Reservoir Control * Potential ensemble candidates

  4. Forecast NOAA Model Production Suite Oceans RTOFS/HYCOM WaveWatch III Climate CFS Coupled Hurricane GFDL HWRF MOM3 1.7B Obs/Day Satellites 99.9% Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT Regional NAM WRF NMM Global Forecast System Global Data Assimilation Severe Weather WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF Short-Range Ensemble Forecast North American Ensemble Forecast System WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM Air Quality GFS, Canadian Global Model NAM/CMAQ Rapid Update for Aviation NOAH Land Surface Model

  5. NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite with Code Origins Real-Time Ocean Forecast System & Waves NCEP 100% Climate Forecast System 32% 68% EXTERNAL 100% Hurricane Forecasts 40% 60% Dispersion 100% 9% 23% 77% 91% Severe Weather Regional Analysis Global Analysis Global Forecasts 50% 50% Regional Forecasts 18% Air Quality With ARL 82% 100% Short-Range Ensemble Forecast 40% 60% Rapid Update for Aviation Global Ensemble Forecast System (w/ Canada) 100% 38% 62%

  6. Forces for Change • Increasing emphasis on Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approaches that build on the NCEP model suite • SREF • NAEFS • Climate Forecast System • Entering the NPOESS era • More rapid access to hyperspectral data • GPS soundings • Higher resolution surface radiance data • All models run within ESMF • Models run concurrently • Hybrid vertical coordinate • Coupled • Spanning all scales • Operational Earth System model – more explicit hydro, climate and ecosystems applications ESMF-based System Global/Regional Model Domain Model Region 1 Model Region 2

  7. Issues • Computer upgrade at risk in next procurement cycle • Impacts new programmatic requirements (ISI/CFS upgrades; HFIP; NextGen; Fire Wx; MME;…) Ongoing Opportunities • OAR/GFDL/EMC MOM4 for climate applications and MME potential • OAR/GSFC/EMC accelerated ESMF applications • OAR/ESRL/EMC: FIM • JCSDA partnership (GMAO; EMC) leading to accelerated 4DVAR • WRF/DTC/HWTB/EMC ensemble and HFIP partnerships working to accelerate short-range ensemble application • NOPP/Navy/EMC: Global HYCOM

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