Cumulative Environmental Impact Assessment

1. Cumulative Environmental Impact Assessment Ankara, Turkey May, 2011 Agi Kiss Regional Safeguards Coordinator Europe and Central Asia Region

2. What is it? Why do it? When to do it? How to do it? How to use it? Conditions calling for CEIA Good practice EIA and beyond Large vs. Small projects

3. “Cooking up” Cumulative Impact Assessment

4. Key Terms • Valued Ecosystem Component (VEC): • “…elements of the natural and human world that are considered valuable by participants in a public review process.” • Can be valued for economic, social, environmental, aesthetic or ethical reasons • Important in themselves and/or serve as indicators • Represent the focus of any EIA or CEIA • Can be large scale or small scale/specific (lake basin > lake > spawning area) • Identified and prioritized by stakeholders, experts, weighting schemes

6. Key Terms cont. Zone of Impact: Area encompassing all VECS which could be impacted by the project … Based on ecology, topography, etc. – not just a specified distance or area Stressors: facilities, developments, actions, trends which all impact (put stress on) the same VEC

7. e.g.: Cold Lake Oil Sands Project: Alberta, Canada

8. Key Terms cont. Limit of Acceptable Change (LAC), Carrying Capacity, Threshold values • Impacts = changes in VECs (e.g. reduction in local population of a species, reduction in area of a habitat, increase in SO2 concentration in the air, decrease in lake level) • Unrealistic to set a requirement of zero change • Need to determine acceptable level of change (e.g. allowable concentration of Nitrogen in drinking water; minimum habitat area to be maintained; acceptable level of background radiation, minimum volume of water in a stretch of river during summer, etc.) • Level of acceptable change is based on regulations or socially accepted criteria; can be objective or subjective (e.g. concentration of particulate matter in the air which has been shown to increase frequency of respiratory diseases by X percent; lake level at which economically valuable spawning areas are eliminated; amount of infrastructure development which visitors will tolerate in recreational areas) • Aim of impact assessment is to prevent total change in VEC from exceeding the established LAC/ carrying capacity/threshold

9. What is Cumulative Impact Assessment? Project A zone of impact Zone of Impact of directly linked or induced development Project A site Facility B zone of impact Important Env. Asset Important Cultural Asset Zone of impact of planned/reasonably foreseeable development or trend Existing Facility B site

10. Project Level vs. Regional Level CEIA River basin with hydropower projects Existing project Planned future project (licensed approved) Proposed project Ocean

11. EIA and “CEIA” EIA should identify potential cumulative impact issues and associated risks: • Minor risk • Few other significant impact sources • Easily understood impacts and interactions • Major risk • Numerous other significant impact sources • Complex impacts and interactions Cumulative impacts section of EIA prepared without in-depth CEIA exercise In-depth CEIA exercise needed (should be simultaneous and interactive with rest of EIA)

12. Why Do CEIA? Because a proposed project is likely to have significant impacts on “regional VECs” which are also impacted by other actions/trends (sources) Because the impacts from different sources (stressors) can interact in additive or synergistic ways, not always easy or straightforward to predict, requiring in-depth analysis Because impacts from other stressors can undermine the project’s objectives and/or result in changes of unanticipated severity Because looking at the broader picture might reveal new opportunities for better overall outcomes Because the most feasible and cost-effective mitigation measures might not lie within the context of the proposed project

13. Tip of Iceberg Problem All Development Activities Source: Lex Brown 2009

14. Tip of Iceberg Problem Projects with Environmental Impact Assessment All Development Activities

15. When to do CEIA? What information is needed to determine whether EIA for Project A needs to take Facility B into account? Starting point: Project A has potential off-site impacts (e.g. air or water emissions, erosion/sedimentation, noise, etc.) which cannot be eliminated through realistic mitigation measures Distance between A and B …. circumstances where this information might be enough? Located within same ecological system (river/lake basin, watershed, airshed, wildlife home range) ….. what information is needed to know this? what sources can provide it? Overlapping zones of impact – impact on the same VECs …. what information is needed to know this? what sources can provide it?

16. How to do CEIA: Assessment Framework • Scoping: • Identify issues/assets of concern, at a regional scale – spatial plans, experts, consultation • Select appropriate VECs and identify LAC/objectives thresholds – experts, consultation • Identify spatial and temporal boundaries for the study based on VECs • Identify other stressors (existing and future) that may affect the same VECs • Identify potential impacts of project and other stressors – focus of the study • Analysis: • Collect baseline data relevant to VECs and potential impacts -- literature, consultation, data collection • Assess likely effects of the project on VECs • Assess likely effects of other actions/trends on VEC • Evaluate potential cumulative (additive, synergistic) effects for total impact – • scenarios, modeling • Potential mitigation measures: • Identify potential mitigation measures – for proposed project and for other actions/trends • Evaluate feasibility and costs, develop realistic mitigation plan -- including costs and • institutional responsibilities

17. CEIA Framework cont. Evaluation of residual impacts: Compare to LAC/objectives/thresholds Follow-up (multi-stakeholder) Monitoring of VECs and mitigation measures (project, other actions/trends) Adaptive management – process to make changes based on monitoring

18. Example: multiple use river system (based on case study from Alberta, Canada) Proposal: divert part of peak flow volume from river to a storage reservoir for municipal water supply Other existing facilities/impact sources (stressors) on-demand commercial irrigation scheme extracting water during summer growing season hydropower operation diverting water into conveyance tunnels over distance of 2 km VECs: aquatic resources (indicator species of riparian vegetation, invertebrates and fish) stretch of whitewater rapids popular for rafting (between weir and powerplant) • Limits of acceptable change: Downstream flow must be sufficient to: • maintain viable aquatic ecosystem at all points as measured by LACs established for the indicator species) • maintain minimum 10 km stretch of Class 3 River for rafting year round Expert knowledge and existing data were used to determine minimum flow required to stay within Limits of Acceptable Change Computer model used to determine amount of water which can be diverted to the reservoir based on continuously monitored flow at off-take point Balance between off-take for irrigation and for municipal supply might change over time, based on policy decisions, but total off-take must stay within the designated range

19. CEIA for Large vs. Small Projects ON THE ONE HAND: Cumulative impacts from numerous small investments can be more than impacts of a few large ones … Large projects more likely to have full EIA, oversight, monitoring THE OTHER HAND: Costs and timeframe of EA must be proportionate to level of risk of the project. Full CEIA assessment framework is not always appropriate Expected off-site impacts? YES NO EIA required (full or limited) No cumulative impacts expected • Other stressors few/easily identified; • Interactions among impacts are simple to understand/evaluate • Project ‘s contribution to total impacts is minor • Other stressors numerous/not easily identified • Interactions among impacts are complex • Project’s contribution to total impacts is significant Discuss cumulative impacts in EIA Carry out in-depth CEIA

20. Discussion of Cumulative Impacts within EIA VECs may be general and LACs may be presented in qualitative terms Usually rely on existing data Usually use relatively simple analytical tools (e.g. impact matrix) In-depth Cumulative Impact Assessment VECs should be specific and LACs mostly expressed in quantitative terms Often requires collection of additional baseline and impact-related data Use more sophisticated and quantitative analytical tools (mathematical or computer modeling of alternative scenarios, dose/response curves, GIS/land use mapping, etc.)

21. 2-matrix tool for simple CIA (example of small HEPP) Matrix 1: potential biophysical and socio-economic impacts of project components Matrix 2: potential effects of other activities in the area Overlapping marks indicate potential cumulative impacts to be considered

22. How to Use CEIA Like all EIA, an input to decision-making Fullest possible information for decision-makers and stakeholders … clarify options and trade-offs Influence siting, design and operation of projects Identify development trends which may require strategic planning Identify most effective and efficient mitigation measures (may be outside of the proposed project)

23. How we should approach CEIA: THANK YOU